luckadjusted

Week 6 2025 · October 13, 2025

Bills at Falcons, Week 6 2025: who deserved to win?

The Falcons beat the Bills 24–14, but the Bills played well enough to win it: they take 6 of 10 replays with the same day's form.

Before kickoff the Bills were 60% favorites. The biggest swing (Q1, 8:08 left): the Bills converted 3rd & 13, worth 11 points of win probability to the Bills.

Final

Buffalo Bills 14
Atlanta Falcons 24

October 13, 2025 · Mercedes-Benz Stadium · Closing line: Bills −3.5

Luck index +62 Falcons very lucky · −62 Bills

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Bills win 6, Falcons win 4.

  1. 1 BUF 50 ATL 24
  2. 2 BUF 42 ATL 24
  3. 3 BUF 28 ATL 16
  4. 4 BUF 24 ATL 16
  5. 5 BUF 28 ATL 24
  6. 6 BUF 23 ATL 21
  7. 7 BUF 21 ATL 24
  8. 8 BUF 20 ATL 28
  9. 9 BUF 7 ATL 19
  10. 10 BUF 26 ATL 48

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Bills win 61% of them, Falcons 39%, counting the 2% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Falcons by 10.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Bills by 17+19.8%
Bills by 9–1618.1%
Bills by 1–823.1%
Level after regulation2.4%
Falcons by 1–818.7%
Falcons by 9–1610.4%
Falcons by 17+7.4%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth 0.0 points to the Falcons: the final margin was Falcons by 10, without the luck Falcons by 9.9. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • J. Romo, 37 yds blocked · 92% expected
  • J. Romo, 33 yds made · 95% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Bills 8 for 64 yards, Falcons 6 for 35 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 14:55 Defensive Offside on the Bills (Gregory Rousseau), 5 yards, wiping out the play · pre-snap +8% ATL +4.8 pts
Q1 9:25 Offensive Holding on the Bills (Tyrell Shavers), 10 yards +2% ATL +1.2 pts
Q1 8:01 Unnecessary Roughness on the Bills (Sam Franklin), 15 yards +4% ATL +1.1 pts
Q1 7:55 False Start on the Falcons, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% BUF +0.5 pts
Q1 4:06 Defensive Pass Interference on the Bills (Tre'Davious White), 5 yards +3% ATL +1.0 pts
Q1 4:03 False Start on the Falcons (Kyle Pitts), 5 yards · pre-snap +1% BUF +0.7 pts
Q2 11:51 Defensive Offside on the Bills (Ed Oliver), 5 yards, wiping out the play · pre-snap +2% ATL +0.9 pts
Q3 6:17 Offensive Holding on the Bills (Cameron Lewis), 10 yards +4% ATL +1.1 pts
Q3 4:48 Defensive Holding on the Falcons (AJ Terrell), 5 yards 0% BUF +0.2 pts
Q3 3:23 Defensive Holding on the Falcons (Mike Hughes), 5 yards +4% BUF +2.6 pts
Q4 14:16 Defensive Pass Interference on the Bills (Christian Benford), 9 yards +5% ATL +2.5 pts
Q4 6:55 Offensive Holding on the Falcons (DeMarcco Hellams), 10 yards +3% BUF +0.8 pts
Q4 5:30 False Start on the Falcons, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% BUF +0.8 pts
Q4 2:00 Encroachment on the Bills (Jordan Phillips), 5 yards · pre-snap 0% ATL +0.2 pts

Bills penalties, every game · Falcons penalties, every game · All teams, 2025

When it happened

Falcons’ chance of winning

As low as 49% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Falcons were ahead in it, below while the Bills were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 14:55 Defensive Offside on the Bills (Gregory Rousseau), 5 yards, wiping out the playPre-snap flags · 2 flags in 3113 snaps before, position avg 1 per 304 +8% ATL ATL: Touchdown
2 Q1 8:08 The Bills converted 3rd & 133rd & 4th downs · 24% expected +11% BUF BUF: Touchdown
3 Q1 2:44 The Falcons converted 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 35% expected +9% ATL ATL: Touchdown
4 Q1 0:32 The Falcons converted 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 24% expected +6% ATL ATL: Touchdown
5 Q2 14:55 The Bills converted 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 29% expected +6% BUF BUF: Punt
6 Q2 12:43 The Bills were stopped on 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 33% expected +4% ATL BUF: Punt
7 Q4 14:16 Defensive Pass Interference on the Bills (Christian Benford), 9 yardsJudgment calls · 13 flags in 2667 snaps before, position avg 1 per 213 +5% ATL ATL: Missed field goal
8 Q4 12:31 J. Romo had a 37-yard field goal blockedKicks · 92% expected for him +8% BUF ATL: Punt

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Kaleb McGary (ATL T), out (IR) · 1.2 pts
  • Darnell Mooney (ATL WR), out · 0.9 pts
  • Ray-Ray McCloud (ATL WR), out · 0.3 pts
  • Matt Milano (BUF LB), out · 0.5 pts
  • Tyler Bass (BUF K), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Damar Hamlin (BUF SS), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Cameron Johnston (BUF P), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
  • T.J. Sanders (BUF DT), out (IR) · 0.1 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Bills 3% · Falcons 97%

Final margin
Falcons by 10
Luck in points
none
Luck-adjusted margin
Falcons by 10.0
Replay with same day's form
Bills 61% · Falcons 39% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 6 2025 games · Bills · Falcons

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