Week 6 2025 · October 12, 2025
Seahawks at Jaguars, Week 6 2025: who deserved to win?
The Seahawks beat the Jaguars 20–12, and it was no fluke: replayed with the way both teams actually played, the Seahawks win 9 of 10.
An off day for the Jaguars: their offense played far below its usual level. In a fresh game against the Seahawks they would win 47% of the time; with this day’s form, 6%. The numbers
Before kickoff the Seahawks were 54% favorites. The biggest swing (Q1, 2:38 left): the Jaguars converted 3rd & 16, worth 12 points of win probability to the Jaguars.
Final
 Seattle Seahawks | 20 |
|---|---|
 Jacksonville Jaguars | 12 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +6 Seahawks about even · −6 Jaguars
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Seahawks win 9, Jaguars win 1.
- 1 SEA 47 JAX 10
- 2 SEA 34 JAX 7
- 3 SEA 36 JAX 13
- 4 SEA 38 JAX 20
- 5 SEA 34 JAX 20
- 6 SEA 25 JAX 13
- 7 SEA 30 JAX 20
- 8 SEA 30 JAX 24
- 9 SEA 12 JAX 10
- 10 SEA 21 JAX 26
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
An off day for the Jaguars
Their offense played far below its usual level. In a fresh game against the Seahawks they would win 47% of the time; with this day’s form, 6%.
Same teams, fresh game
Replay with same day's form
41 points apart for the Jaguars: the gap is how differently this game went from what the two teams usually are.
| Unit | This game | Usual level | Better or worse than usual |
|---|---|---|---|
| Seahawks offenseEPA per play gained | +0.02 | +0.12 | worse by 0.10 |
| Seahawks defenseEPA per play allowed | −0.02 | +0.09 | better by 0.11 |
| Jaguars offenseEPA per play gained | −0.02 | +0.09 | worse by 0.11 |
| Jaguars defenseEPA per play allowed | +0.02 | +0.14 | better by 0.11 |
EPA (expected points added) per play on competitive snaps, turnovers left out because they are valued as luck. Usual level: the team’s earlier games this season plus half of last season, pulled toward the league average. One team’s defense and the other team’s offense are the same snaps, so one game can’t fully say whose day it was; it shows how far this one was from both teams’ norms.
How 4,000 replays ended
Seahawks win 94% of them, Jaguars 6%, counting the 1% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Seahawks by 8.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Seahawks by 17+ | 60.3% |
| Seahawks by 9–16 | 19.4% |
| Seahawks by 1–8 | 13.9% |
| Level after regulation | 0.5% |
| Jaguars by 1–8 | 4.3% |
| Jaguars by 9–16 | 1.4% |
| Jaguars by 17+ | 0.2% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.
- J. Myers, 24 yds made · 99% expected
- C. Little, 50 yds missed · 72% expected
- J. Myers, 53 yds made · 68% expected
- Extra point missed · 93% expected
Penalties: Seahawks 7 for 56 yards, Jaguars 10 for 76 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 14:18 | Offensive Holding on the Jaguars, 10 yards | +3% SEA +1.2 pts |
| Q1 7:00 | Offensive Holding on the Seahawks, 10 yards | +2% JAX +1.5 pts |
| Q1 5:50 | Illegal Formation on the Seahawks (Brady Russell), 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% JAX +0.6 pts |
| Q1 5:38 | Offensive Holding on the Jaguars (Hunter Long), 10 yards | +4% SEA +1.0 pts |
| Q1 5:19 | Defensive Too Many Men on Field on the Seahawks, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% JAX +0.2 pts |
| Q2 10:38 | Illegal Double-Team Block on the Jaguars (Bhayshul Tuten), 11 yards | +2% SEA +1.0 pts |
| Q2 7:25 | Illegal Formation on the Jaguars, 5 yards, wiping out the play · pre-snap | +7% SEA +1.6 pts |
| Q2 4:39 | Illegal Formation on the Jaguars, 5 yards, wiping out the play · pre-snap | +3% SEA +1.1 pts |
| Q2 3:31 | Roughing the Passer on the Seahawks (DeMarcus Lawrence), 15 yards | +6% JAX +1.0 pts |
| Q2 1:56 | False Start on the Jaguars (Trevor Lawrence), 5 yards · pre-snap | +2% SEA +0.6 pts |
| Q3 6:40 | Taunting on the Seahawks (Jaxon Smith-Njigba), 15 yards | +1% JAX +1.6 pts |
| Q3 5:14 | Illegal Blindside Block on the Jaguars (Rayuan Lane), 15 yards | +1% SEA +1.2 pts |
| Q3 1:27 | Offensive Offside on the Jaguars (Travis Hunter), 5 yards, wiping out the play · pre-snap | +11% SEA +5.6 pts |
| Q4 13:00 | Defensive Too Many Men on Field on the Seahawks, 1 yard · pre-snap | 0% JAX 0.0 pts |
| Q4 7:45 | Illegal Formation on the Seahawks (Nehemiah Pritchett), 5 yards · pre-snap | +2% JAX +0.5 pts |
| Q4 6:25 | False Start on the Jaguars, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% SEA +0.6 pts |
| Q4 2:00 | Defensive Holding on the Jaguars (Dawuane Smoot), 5 yards | +1% SEA +2.4 pts |
Seahawks penalties, every game · Jaguars penalties, every game · All teams, 2025
When it happened
Jaguars’ chance of winning
As low as 0% and as high as 70%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 4:22 | The Jaguars converted 3rd & 113rd & 4th downs · 24% expected | +8% JAX | JAX: Touchdown |
| 2 | Q1 2:38 | The Jaguars converted 3rd & 163rd & 4th downs · 18% expected | +12% JAX | JAX: Touchdown |
| 3 | Q2 9:41 | The Jaguars were stopped on 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 29% expected | +7% SEA | JAX: Punt |
| 4 | Q2 7:25 | Illegal Formation on the Jaguars, 5 yards, wiping out the playPre-snap flags | +7% SEA | SEA: Punt |
| 5 | Q2 2:00 | The Jaguars converted 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 71% expected | +9% JAX | JAX: Missed field goal |
| 6 | Q2 1:08 | The Jaguars were stopped on 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 27% expected | +11% SEA | JAX: Missed field goal |
| 7 | Q3 1:27 | Offensive Offside on the Jaguars (Travis Hunter), 5 yards, wiping out the playPre-snap flags · 2 flags in 327 snaps before, position avg 1 per 403 | +11% SEA | SEA: Punt |
| 8 | Q4 9:22 | The Jaguars were stopped on 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 38% expectedB. Thomas dropped a catchable passDrops · 10 drops on 132 catchable balls before this | +9% SEA | JAX: Punt |
Missing players
Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.
- Brenton Strange (JAX TE), out (IR) · 0.5 pts
- Robert Hainsey (JAX OL), out · 0.4 pts
- Devon Witherspoon (SEA CB), out · 1.4 pts
- Riq Woolen (SEA CB), out · 0.9 pts
- Julian Love (SEA S), out · 0.5 pts
- Julian Love (SEA SS), out · 0.5 pts
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Seahawks 35% · Jaguars 65%
- Final margin
- Seahawks by 8
- Luck in points
- 8.0 for the Seahawks
- Luck-adjusted margin
- even
- Replay with same day's form
- Seahawks 94% · Jaguars 6% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.
Methodology and validation · All Week 6 2025 games · 
Seahawks · 
Jaguars
More from Week 6 2025
- Eagles at Giants NYG 34–17 · replay 71% for the winner
- Broncos vs Jets DEN 13–11 · replay 85% for the winner
- Cardinals at Colts IND 31–27 · replay 83% for the winner
- Browns at Steelers PIT 23–9 · replay 96% for the winner
- Cowboys at Panthers CAR 30–27 · replay 84% for the winner
- Chargers at Dolphins LAC 29–27 · replay 53% for the winner
- Rams at Ravens LA 17–3 · replay 71% for the winner
- Patriots at Saints NE 25–19 · replay 73% for the winner
- Titans at Raiders LV 20–10 · replay 93% for the winner
- Bengals at Packers GB 27–18 · replay 97% for the winner
- 49ers at Buccaneers TB 30–19 · replay 68% for the winner
- Lions at Chiefs KC 30–17 · replay 64% for the winner
- Bills at Falcons ATL 24–14 · replay 39% for the winner
- Bears at Commanders CHI 25–24 · replay 35% for the winner