luckadjusted

Week 6 2025 · October 12, 2025

Browns at Steelers, Week 6 2025: who deserved to win?

The Steelers beat the Browns 23–9, and it was no fluke: replayed with the way both teams actually played, the Steelers win 10 of 10.

Before kickoff the Steelers were 66% favorites. The biggest swing (Q3, 14:16 left): Defensive Offside on the Steelers (T.J. Watt), 4 yards, wiping out the play, worth 10 points of win probability to the Browns.

Final

Cleveland Browns 9
Pittsburgh Steelers 23

October 12, 2025 · Acrisure Stadium · Closing line: Steelers −5.5

Luck index +4 Steelers about even · −4 Browns

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Browns win 0, Steelers win 10.

  1. 1 CLE 10 PIT 13
  2. 2 CLE 15 PIT 20
  3. 3 CLE 13 PIT 21
  4. 4 CLE 3 PIT 13
  5. 5 CLE 17 PIT 30
  6. 6 CLE 9 PIT 23
  7. 7 CLE 0 PIT 17
  8. 8 CLE 10 PIT 30
  9. 9 CLE 6 PIT 30
  10. 10 CLE 0 PIT 30

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Browns win 4% of them, Steelers 96%, counting the 1% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Steelers by 14.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Browns by 17+0.0%
Browns by 9–160.6%
Browns by 1–83.0%
Level after regulation1.4%
Steelers by 1–815.2%
Steelers by 9–1624.1%
Steelers by 17+55.6%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +1.3 points to the Browns: the final margin was Steelers by 14, without the luck Steelers by 15.3. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • C. Boswell, 44 yds made · 83% expected
  • C. Boswell, 50 yds made · 79% expected
  • C. Boswell, 48 yds made · 83% expected
  • A. Szmyt, 31 yds made · 95% expected
  • A. Szmyt, 53 yds made · 65% expected
  • A. Szmyt, 32 yds made · 95% expected
  • C. Boswell, 54 yds missed · 73% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Browns 6 for 44 yards, Steelers 10 for 59 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 10:06 Defensive Offside on the Steelers (T.J. Watt), 5 yards · pre-snap +3% CLE +0.4 pts
Q1 9:20 Unnecessary Roughness on the Browns (Jerry Jeudy), 15 yards +4% PIT +1.5 pts
Q1 8:09 Illegal Blindside Block on the Steelers (Jabrill Peppers), 10 yards +1% CLE +1.0 pts
Q1 2:32 Illegal Use of Hands on the Steelers (Jabrill Peppers), 5 yards +3% CLE +0.7 pts
Q2 5:02 False Start on the Steelers (D.K. Metcalf), 5 yards · pre-snap +2% CLE +0.5 pts
Q2 3:38 Offensive Holding on the Browns (Jerome Baker), 10 yards +3% PIT +0.9 pts
Q2 2:00 Illegal Use of Hands on the Steelers (Cameron Heyward), 5 yards +2% CLE +0.9 pts
Q2 1:47 Illegal Formation on the Browns, 5 yards, wiping out the play · pre-snap +7% PIT +2.3 pts
Q3 14:16 Defensive Offside on the Steelers (T.J. Watt), 4 yards, wiping out the play · pre-snap +10% CLE +1.9 pts
Q3 14:12 False Start on the Browns, 4 yards · pre-snap +1% PIT +0.8 pts
Q3 13:48 Offensive Holding on the Steelers, 10 yards +2% CLE +1.1 pts
Q3 11:59 Running Into the Kicker on the Browns (Cameron Thomas), 5 yards, wiping out the play +5% PIT +2.5 pts
Q4 11:14 Unnecessary Roughness on the Steelers (DeShon Elliott), 8 yards 0% CLE +1.6 pts
Q4 11:14 Delay of Game on the Browns, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% PIT +0.9 pts
Q4 10:31 Defensive Pass Interference on the Steelers (Brandin Echols), 2 yards +1% CLE +1.9 pts
Q4 7:19 Player Out of Bounds on Kick on the Steelers (Ben Skowronek), 5 yards 0% CLE +0.3 pts

Browns penalties, every game · Steelers penalties, every game · All teams, 2025

When it happened

Steelers’ chance of winning

Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Steelers were ahead in it, below while the Browns were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 10:00 The Browns converted 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 37% expected +5% CLE CLE: Punt
2 Q1 6:50 The Steelers converted 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 37% expected +7% PIT PIT: Punt
3 Q2 9:27 The Browns were stopped on 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 41% expected +5% PIT CLE: Punt
4 Q2 1:47 Illegal Formation on the Browns, 5 yards, wiping out the playPre-snap flags +7% PIT PIT: Touchdown
5 Q2 0:45 The Browns converted 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 28% expected +6% CLE CLE: Field goal
6 Q3 14:16 Defensive Offside on the Steelers (T.J. Watt), 4 yards, wiping out the playPre-snap flags · 23 flags in 5591 snaps before, position avg 1 per 445 +10% CLE CLE: Punt
7 Q3 11:59 Running Into the Kicker on the Browns (Cameron Thomas), 5 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls · 2 flags in 1022 snaps before, position avg 1 per 304 +5% PIT PIT: Touchdown
8 Q3 4:13 A. Szmyt made 53-yard field goalKicks · 65% expected for him, 2 of 3 from 45+ before +6% CLE CLE: Field goal

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Calvin Austin III (PIT WR), out · 0.5 pts
  • Chuck Clark (PIT DB), out · 0.3 pts
  • Cornelius Lucas (CLE T), out · 0.6 pts
  • Martin Emerson (CLE CB), out (IR) · 0.5 pts
  • Cedric Tillman (CLE WR), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Dawand Jones (CLE T), out (IR) · 0.3 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Browns 1% · Steelers 99%

Final margin
Steelers by 14
Luck in points
1.3 for the Browns
Luck-adjusted margin
Steelers by 15.3
Replay with same day's form
Browns 4% · Steelers 96% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 6 2025 games · Browns · Steelers

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