luckadjusted

Week 6 2025 · October 12, 2025

Rams at Ravens, Week 6 2025: who deserved to win?

The Rams beat the Ravens 17–3 and were the better team on the day: replayed with the same form, they win 7 of 10. The Ravens had the bounces: kicks alone were worth 12 points of win probability to the Ravens.

Before kickoff the Rams were 70% favorites. The biggest swing (Q1, 1:34 left): the Ravens were stopped on 3rd & 7, worth 18 points of win probability to the Rams.

Final

Los Angeles Rams 17
Baltimore Ravens 3

October 12, 2025 · M&T Bank Stadium · Closing line: Rams −7

Luck index +29 Rams lucky · −29 Ravens

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Rams win 7, Ravens win 3.

  1. 1 LA 34 BAL 10
  2. 2 LA 29 BAL 13
  3. 3 LA 29 BAL 16
  4. 4 LA 30 BAL 20
  5. 5 LA 20 BAL 14
  6. 6 LA 18 BAL 14
  7. 7 LA 13 BAL 12
  8. 8 LA 14 BAL 16
  9. 9 LA 17 BAL 24
  10. 10 LA 13 BAL 29

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Rams win 71% of them, Ravens 29%, counting the 4% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Rams by 14.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Rams by 17+20.3%
Rams by 9–1622.8%
Rams by 1–827.5%
Level after regulation4.5%
Ravens by 1–814.6%
Ravens by 9–167.2%
Ravens by 17+3.0%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +13.8 points to the Rams: the final margin was Rams by 14, without the luck Rams by 0.2. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • T. Loop, 37 yds made · 89% expected
  • J. Karty, 26 yds missed · 97% expected
  • J. Karty, 36 yds made · 89% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Rams 6 for 40 yards, Ravens 7 for 80 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 11:24 Neutral Zone Infraction on the Rams (Josaiah Stewart), 5 yards · pre-snap +2% BAL +0.8 pts
Q1 11:02 Encroachment on the Rams (Jared Verse), 5 yards · pre-snap +5% BAL +1.1 pts
Q1 9:33 Offensive Holding on the Ravens, 10 yards +4% LA +1.6 pts
Q1 8:27 Offensive Holding on the Ravens, 10 yards, wiping out the play +3% LA +1.5 pts
Q1 0:51 Illegal Block Above the Waist on the Ravens, 10 yards +1% LA +0.9 pts
Q2 5:10 Offensive Holding on the Rams (Jaylen McCollough), 10 yards +4% BAL +1.0 pts
Q2 3:52 Ineligible Downfield Kick on the Rams (Shaun Dolac), 5 yards, wiping out the play +5% LA +1.8 pts
Q3 11:46 Offensive Pass Interference on the Ravens (Mark Andrews), 10 yards, wiping out the play +10% LA +3.1 pts
Q3 8:59 Neutral Zone Infraction on the Rams (Kobie Turner), 5 yards · pre-snap +5% BAL +2.4 pts
Q3 1:10 Defensive Pass Interference on the Ravens (Nate Wiggins), 30 yards +1% LA +2.5 pts
Q3 1:05 Offensive Holding on the Rams (Jordan Whittington), 10 yards +1% BAL +1.6 pts
Q3 0:02 Neutral Zone Infraction on the Ravens (Kyle Van Noy), 5 yards · pre-snap 0% LA +0.5 pts
Q4 9:20 False Start on the Ravens, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% LA +0.6 pts

Rams penalties, every game · Ravens penalties, every game · All teams, 2025

When it happened

Ravens’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 71%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Ravens were ahead in it, below while the Rams were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 2:27 J. Karty missed 26-yard field goalKicks · 97% expected for him +11% BAL LA: Turnover
2 Q1 1:34 The Ravens were stopped on 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 32% expectedThe Ravens threw an interception-worthy pass, and it was pickedInterceptions · 49% expected to stay out of the defense's hands +18% LA BAL: Turnover on downs
3 Q1 1:29 The Rams fumbled and the Ravens recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +10% BAL LA: Field goal
4 Q2 11:04 The Rams converted 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 27% expected +10% LA LA: Field goal
5 Q2 0:12 The Ravens were stopped on 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 64% expected +14% LA BAL: Turnover
6 Q3 14:00 The Rams converted 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 49% expected +7% LA LA: Touchdown
7 Q3 12:20 The Rams converted 4th & 23rd & 4th downs · 58% expected +15% LA LA: Touchdown
8 Q3 11:46 Offensive Pass Interference on the Ravens (Mark Andrews), 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls · 12 flags in 4519 snaps before, position avg 1 per 278 +10% LA LA: Touchdown

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Lamar Jackson (BAL QB), out, replaced by c.rush · 9.0 pts
  • Roquan Smith (BAL LB), out · 0.8 pts
  • Nnamdi Madubuike (BAL DL), out (IR) · 0.6 pts
  • Nnamdi Madubuike (BAL DT), out (IR) · 0.6 pts
  • Chidobe Awuzie (BAL CB), out · 0.5 pts
  • Ar'Darius Washington (BAL FS), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Rob Havenstein (LA T), out · 0.9 pts
  • Rob Havenstein (LA OL), out · 0.6 pts
  • Ahkello Witherspoon (LA CB), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Beaux Limmer (LA C), out · 0.3 pts
  • Omar Speights (LA LB), out · 0.2 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Rams 90% · Ravens 10%

Final margin
Rams by 14
Luck in points
13.8 for the Rams
Luck-adjusted margin
Rams by 0.2
Replay with same day's form
Rams 71% · Ravens 29% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 6 2025 games · Rams · Ravens

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