luckadjusted

Week 7 2025 · October 19, 2025

Eagles at Vikings, Week 7 2025: who deserved to win?

The Eagles beat the Vikings 28–22, but it was a coin flip: replayed with the way both teams played, the Eagles win 5 of 10. Luck ran their way: 3rd & 4th downs alone were worth 15 points of win probability to the Eagles.

Before kickoff the Eagles were 57% favorites. The biggest swing (Q2, 13:35 left): Return touchdown by the Eagles, worth 43 points of win probability to the Eagles.

Final

Philadelphia Eagles 28
Minnesota Vikings 22

October 19, 2025 · U.S. Bank Stadium · Closing line: Eagles −2.5

Luck index +46 Eagles lucky · −46 Vikings

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Eagles win 5, Vikings win 5.

  1. 1 PHI 27 MIN 3
  2. 2 PHI 23 MIN 9
  3. 3 PHI 31 MIN 21
  4. 4 PHI 33 MIN 28
  5. 5 PHI 24 MIN 21
  6. 6 PHI 20 MIN 22
  7. 7 PHI 10 MIN 14
  8. 8 PHI 7 MIN 16
  9. 9 PHI 20 MIN 34
  10. 10 PHI 12 MIN 33

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Eagles win 54% of them, Vikings 46%, counting the 5% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Eagles by 6.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Eagles by 17+10.7%
Eagles by 9–1616.1%
Eagles by 1–822.9%
Level after regulation5.3%
Vikings by 1–823.1%
Vikings by 9–1613.5%
Vikings by 17+8.4%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +1.9 points to the Vikings: the final margin was Eagles by 6, without the luck Eagles by 7.9. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • W. Reichard, 59 yds made · 62% expected
  • W. Reichard, 34 yds made · 95% expected
  • W. Reichard, 28 yds made · 98% expected
  • J. Elliott, 42 yds missed · 87% expected
  • W. Reichard, 35 yds made · 94% expected
  • W. Reichard, 29 yds made · 97% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Eagles 8 for 64 yards, Vikings 3 for 30 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 0:42 False Start on the Eagles (A.J. Brown), 5 yards · pre-snap +1% MIN +1.1 pts
Q2 13:21 Offensive Holding on the Vikings (Josh Oliver), 10 yards +1% PHI +0.8 pts
Q2 6:42 Offensive Holding on the Vikings, 10 yards, wiping out the play +13% PHI +4.2 pts
Q2 6:34 Illegal Formation on the Eagles (E.J. Jenkins), 5 yards · pre-snap +1% MIN +0.5 pts
Q2 6:29 Offensive Holding on the Eagles, 10 yards +2% MIN +0.9 pts
Q3 9:50 Intentional Grounding on the Vikings (Carson Wentz), 10 yards +3% PHI +0.9 pts
Q3 9:02 Illegal Double-Team Block on the Eagles (Cameron Latu), 15 yards +4% MIN +1.4 pts
Q3 8:07 Defensive Pass Interference on the Eagles (Jalyx Hunt), 14 yards +1% MIN +0.9 pts
Q3 8:07 Kickoff Short of Landing Zone on the Eagles (Jake Elliott), 0 yards · pre-snap 0% MIN 0.0 pts
Q3 2:51 Offensive Holding on the Eagles, 10 yards +2% MIN +0.9 pts
Q4 0:02 Delay of Game on the Eagles, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% MIN +0.6 pts

Eagles penalties, every game · Vikings penalties, every game · All teams, 2025

When it happened

Vikings’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 61%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Vikings were ahead in it, below while the Eagles were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 7:07 The Eagles converted 4th & 43rd & 4th downs · 45% expected +17% PHI PHI: Touchdown
2 Q2 13:35 The Vikings were stopped on 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 39% expectedThe Vikings threw an interception-worthy pass, and it was pickedInterceptions · 49% expected to stay out of the defense's handsReturn touchdown by the EaglesSpecial teams +43% PHI MIN: Turnover
3 Q2 6:42 Offensive Holding on the Vikings, 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls +12% PHI PHI: Punt
4 Q3 1:38 The Eagles converted 3rd & 153rd & 4th downs · 21% expected +11% PHI PHI: Missed field goal
5 Q4 14:19 J. Elliott missed 42-yard field goalKicks · 87% expected for him +12% MIN PHI: Touchdown
6 Q4 10:49 The Vikings were stopped on 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 32% expected +13% PHI MIN: Field goal
7 Q4 9:09 The Eagles converted 3rd & 133rd & 4th downs · 23% expected +10% PHI PHI: Touchdown
8 Q4 3:05 The Vikings were stopped on 3rd & 23rd & 4th downs · 59% expectedT. Hockenson dropped a catchable passDrops · 7 drops on 291 catchable balls before this +10% PHI MIN: Field goal

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Andrew Van Ginkel (MIN LB), out · 0.5 pts
  • Aaron Jones (MIN RB), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Nolan Smith (PHI LB), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
  • Charley Hughlett (PHI LS), out (IR) · 0.1 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Eagles 85% · Vikings 15%

Final margin
Eagles by 6
Luck in points
1.9 for the Vikings
Luck-adjusted margin
Eagles by 7.9
Replay with same day's form
Eagles 54% · Vikings 46% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 7 2025 games · Eagles · Vikings

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