luckadjusted

Week 7 2025 · October 19, 2025

Saints at Bears, Week 7 2025: who deserved to win?

The Bears beat the Saints 26–14, and it was no fluke: replayed with the way both teams actually played, the Bears win 10 of 10. The Saints had the bounces: judgment calls alone were worth 20 points of win probability to the Saints.

Before kickoff the Bears were 63% favorites. The biggest swing (Q1, 6:13 left): the Bears were stopped on 3rd & 17, worth 15 points of win probability to the Saints.

Final

New Orleans Saints 14
Chicago Bears 26

October 19, 2025 · Soldier Field · Closing line: Bears −4.5

Luck index +4 Bears about even · −4 Saints

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Saints win 0, Bears win 10.

  1. 1 NO 24 CHI 27
  2. 2 NO 14 CHI 20
  3. 3 NO 14 CHI 23
  4. 4 NO 21 CHI 33
  5. 5 NO 20 CHI 34
  6. 6 NO 10 CHI 26
  7. 7 NO 3 CHI 22
  8. 8 NO 0 CHI 24
  9. 9 NO 10 CHI 37
  10. 10 NO 8 CHI 44

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Saints win 4% of them, Bears 96%, counting the 1% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Bears by 12.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Saints by 17+0.3%
Saints by 9–160.7%
Saints by 1–82.5%
Level after regulation0.8%
Bears by 1–87.4%
Bears by 9–1618.8%
Bears by 17+69.5%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +1.3 points to the Bears: the final margin was Bears by 12, without the luck Bears by 10.7. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • J. Moody, 27 yds made · 96% expected
  • B. Grupe, 53 yds missed · 64% expected
  • J. Moody, 39 yds made · 86% expected
  • J. Moody, 24 yds made · 97% expected
  • J. Moody, 33 yds made · 92% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Saints 5 for 30 yards, Bears 10 for 92 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 14:22 False Start on the Bears, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% NO +0.6 pts
Q1 6:44 Offensive Pass Interference on the Bears (Colston Loveland), 10 yards, wiping out the play +7% NO +2.3 pts
Q1 4:11 False Start on the Saints (Rashid Shaheed), 5 yards · pre-snap +1% CHI +0.8 pts
Q2 14:06 Defensive Pass Interference on the Bears (Tremaine Edmunds), 22 yards +3% NO +2.9 pts
Q2 13:23 Illegal Formation on the Saints, 5 yards, wiping out the play · pre-snap +6% CHI +1.6 pts
Q2 12:08 Roughing the Passer on the Bears (Jaquan Brisker), 15 yards +8% NO +3.4 pts
Q2 4:42 False Start on the Bears (Cole Kmet), 5 yards · pre-snap +2% NO +0.8 pts
Q2 2:45 Unnecessary Roughness on the Bears (Kyler Gordon), 15 yards +3% NO +1.7 pts
Q3 15:00 Offensive Holding on the Saints (Terrell Burgess), 10 yards +2% CHI +1.3 pts
Q3 14:17 Defensive Holding on the Bears (Andrew Billings), 5 yards 0% NO +0.7 pts
Q3 7:51 Defensive Too Many Men on Field on the Saints, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% CHI +0.4 pts
Q3 7:34 False Start on the Bears, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% NO +0.4 pts
Q3 4:25 False Start on the Bears, 5 yards · pre-snap +2% NO +1.9 pts
Q4 11:20 Illegal Forward Pass on the Saints (Taysom Hill), 5 yards +2% CHI +0.6 pts
Q4 7:09 False Start on the Bears (Colston Loveland), 5 yards · pre-snap 0% NO +0.7 pts

Saints penalties, every game · Bears penalties, every game · All teams, 2025

When it happened

Bears’ chance of winning

As low as 48% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Bears were ahead in it, below while the Saints were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 13:01 The Saints fumbled and the Bears recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +7% CHI NO: Punt
2 Q1 6:44 Offensive Pass Interference on the Bears (Colston Loveland), 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls · 1 flag in 107 snaps before, position avg 1 per 278 +7% NO NO: Missed field goal
3 Q1 6:13 The Bears were stopped on 3rd & 173rd & 4th downs · 20% expectedThe Bears threw an interception-worthy pass, and it was pickedInterceptions · 49% expected to stay out of the defense's hands +15% NO CHI: Field goal
4 Q1 3:00 B. Grupe missed 53-yard field goalKicks · 64% expected for him, 22 of 32 from 45+ before +12% CHI NO: Turnover
5 Q1 1:01 The Bears converted 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 30% expected +7% CHI CHI: Field goal
6 Q2 12:08 Roughing the Passer on the Bears (Jaquan Brisker), 15 yardsJudgment calls · 6 flags in 2612 snaps before, position avg 1 per 244 +8% NO NO: Turnover
7 Q2 11:20 The Saints were stopped on 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 26% expectedThe Saints threw an interception-worthy pass, and it was pickedInterceptions · 53% expected to stay out of the defense's hands +11% CHI NO: Punt
8 Q3 9:47 The Saints converted 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 42% expected +9% NO NO: Touchdown

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Jaylon Johnson (CHI CB), out (IR) · 0.9 pts
  • Grady Jarrett (CHI DL), out · 0.4 pts
  • Cairo Santos (CHI K), out · 0.3 pts
  • Noah Sewell (CHI LB), out · 0.2 pts
  • Landon Young (NO T), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
  • Ugo Amadi (NO FS), out · 0.1 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Saints 12% · Bears 88%

Final margin
Bears by 12
Luck in points
1.3 for the Bears
Luck-adjusted margin
Bears by 10.7
Replay with same day's form
Saints 4% · Bears 96% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 7 2025 games · Saints · Bears

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