luckadjusted

Week 3 2025 · September 21, 2025

Cowboys at Bears, Week 3 2025: who deserved to win?

The Bears beat the Cowboys 31–14, but it was a coin flip: replayed with the way both teams played, the Bears win 5 of 10.

Before kickoff the Cowboys were 54% favorites. The biggest swing (Q2, 6:27 left): the Bears converted 3rd & 9, worth 14 points of win probability to the Bears.

Final

Dallas Cowboys 14
Chicago Bears 31

September 21, 2025 · Soldier Field · Closing line: Cowboys −1.5

Luck index +50 Bears lucky · −50 Cowboys

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Cowboys win 5, Bears win 5.

  1. 1 DAL 38 CHI 17
  2. 2 DAL 13 CHI 0
  3. 3 DAL 28 CHI 20
  4. 4 DAL 24 CHI 20
  5. 5 DAL 23 CHI 21
  6. 6 DAL 17 CHI 20
  7. 7 DAL 14 CHI 19
  8. 8 DAL 21 CHI 30
  9. 9 DAL 13 CHI 27
  10. 10 DAL 15 CHI 36

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Cowboys win 50% of them, Bears 50%, counting the 6% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Bears by 17.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Cowboys by 17+10.5%
Cowboys by 9–1614.7%
Cowboys by 1–822.0%
Level after regulation6.2%
Bears by 1–822.4%
Bears by 9–1614.4%
Bears by 17+9.9%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +2.3 points to the Bears: the final margin was Bears by 17, without the luck Bears by 14.7. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • B. Aubrey, 53 yds made · 77% expected
  • B. Aubrey, 33 yds made · 97% expected
  • C. Santos, 30 yds made · 97% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Cowboys 4 for 25 yards, Bears 6 for 41 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 12:31 Illegal Use of Hands on the Cowboys (Sam Williams), 5 yards +1% CHI +0.6 pts
Q2 14:17 False Start on the Cowboys, 5 yards · pre-snap +2% CHI +0.7 pts
Q2 13:43 Offensive Holding on the Bears, 10 yards, wiping out the play +7% DAL +2.3 pts
Q2 12:21 Offensive Holding on the Bears (Roschon Johnson), 10 yards +1% DAL +1.2 pts
Q2 8:57 Defensive Offside on the Bears (Daniel Hardy), 5 yards · pre-snap +1% DAL +0.1 pts
Q2 7:11 Ineligible Downfield Pass on the Bears, 5 yards +1% DAL +0.6 pts
Q4 14:21 Offensive Holding on the Cowboys, 10 yards +2% CHI +2.2 pts
Q4 13:53 Illegal Contact on the Bears (Tyrique Stevenson), 5 yards +1% DAL +1.7 pts
Q4 5:26 Roughing the Passer on the Bears (Grady Jarrett), 6 yards 0% CHI +0.9 pts
Q4 3:37 Ineligible Downfield Pass on the Cowboys, 5 yards, wiping out the play +3% CHI +3.9 pts

Cowboys penalties, every game · Bears penalties, every game · All teams, 2025

When it happened

Bears’ chance of winning

As low as 45% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Bears were ahead in it, below while the Cowboys were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 12:40 The Cowboys fumbled and the Bears recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +5% CHI DAL: Field goal
2 Q1 10:40 The Bears converted 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 31% expected +12% CHI CHI: Touchdown
3 Q1 5:10 The Cowboys were stopped on 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 41% expected +4% CHI DAL: Field goal
4 Q2 13:43 Offensive Holding on the Bears, 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls +7% DAL DAL: Touchdown
5 Q2 7:57 The Cowboys’ two-point try was good3rd & 4th downs · 47% expected +5% DAL DAL: Punt
6 Q2 6:27 The Bears converted 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 29% expected +14% CHI CHI: Field goal
7 Q2 4:24 The Bears were stopped on 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 28% expected +4% DAL CHI: Field goal
8 Q3 0:14 The Bears converted 4th & 43rd & 4th downs · 38% expected +6% CHI CHI: Touchdown

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Jaylon Johnson (CHI CB), out (IR) · 0.9 pts
  • Kyler Gordon (CHI CB), out · 0.5 pts
  • T.J. Edwards (CHI LB), out · 0.3 pts
  • Kiran Amegadjie (CHI T), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
  • DaRon Bland (DAL CB), out · 0.9 pts
  • Cooper Beebe (DAL C), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • DeMarvion Overshown (DAL LB), out (IR) · 0.2 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Cowboys 2% · Bears 98%

Final margin
Bears by 17
Luck in points
2.3 for the Bears
Luck-adjusted margin
Bears by 14.7
Replay with same day's form
Cowboys 50% · Bears 50% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 3 2025 games · Cowboys · Bears

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