luckadjusted

Week 3 2025 · September 21, 2025

Bengals at Vikings, Week 3 2025: who deserved to win?

The Vikings beat the Bengals 48–10, and it was no fluke: replayed with the way both teams actually played, the Vikings win 10 of 10.

Before kickoff the Vikings were 59% favorites. The biggest swing (Q1, 6:25 left): Return touchdown by the Vikings, worth 23 points of win probability to the Vikings.

Final

Cincinnati Bengals 10
Minnesota Vikings 48

September 21, 2025 · U.S. Bank Stadium · Closing line: Vikings −3

Luck index +2 Vikings about even · −2 Bengals

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Bengals win 0, Vikings win 10.

  1. 1 CIN 17 MIN 20
  2. 2 CIN 27 MIN 35
  3. 3 CIN 31 MIN 43
  4. 4 CIN 3 MIN 17
  5. 5 CIN 19 MIN 36
  6. 6 CIN 3 MIN 23
  7. 7 CIN 0 MIN 23
  8. 8 CIN 13 MIN 40
  9. 9 CIN 0 MIN 31
  10. 10 CIN 6 MIN 47

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Bengals win 2% of them, Vikings 98%. The line is what actually happened: Vikings by 38.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Bengals by 17+0.1%
Bengals by 9–160.2%
Bengals by 1–81.1%
Level after regulation0.4%
Vikings by 1–84.6%
Vikings by 9–1612.6%
Vikings by 17+81.1%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +4.7 points to the Vikings: the final margin was Vikings by 38, without the luck Vikings by 33.3. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • W. Reichard, 35 yds made · 94% expected
  • E. McPherson, 45 yds made · 83% expected
  • W. Reichard, 62 yds made · 58% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Bengals 4 for 45 yards, Vikings 13 for 105 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 14:55 Defensive Holding on the Bengals (B.J. Hill), 5 yards +1% MIN +1.2 pts
Q1 14:41 Low Block on the Bengals (Daxton Hill), 15 yards +5% MIN +1.7 pts
Q1 10:02 False Start on the Vikings, 5 yards · pre-snap +3% CIN +0.7 pts
Q2 14:56 Offensive Holding on the Bengals, 10 yards, wiping out the play +5% MIN +2.7 pts
Q2 12:40 Illegal Block Above the Waist on the Vikings, 10 yards 0% CIN +0.9 pts
Q2 7:55 Unnecessary Roughness on the Vikings (Jeff Okudah), 15 yards +2% CIN +1.7 pts
Q2 4:37 False Start on the Vikings (T.J. Hockenson), 5 yards · pre-snap +1% CIN +0.5 pts
Q2 3:54 False Start on the Vikings, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% CIN +0.6 pts
Q2 2:59 Fair Catch Interference on the Vikings (Tavierre Thomas), 15 yards +1% CIN +1.0 pts
Q2 1:38 Defensive Offside on the Vikings (Jonathan Allen), 5 yards, wiping out the play · pre-snap 0% MIN +0.4 pts
Q2 0:20 Illegal Formation on the Vikings, 5 yards, wiping out the play · pre-snap 0% CIN +1.5 pts
Q3 12:55 Face Mask on the Bengals (PJ Jules), 15 yards 0% MIN +1.4 pts
Q3 11:33 False Start on the Vikings, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% CIN +0.8 pts
Q3 9:52 Offensive Holding on the Vikings, 10 yards 0% CIN +1.3 pts
Q4 12:30 Defensive Too Many Men on Field on the Vikings, 6 yards · pre-snap 0% MIN +1.9 pts
Q4 12:03 Defensive Pass Interference on the Vikings (Dwight McGlothern), 14 yards 0% CIN +1.5 pts
Q4 7:57 False Start on the Vikings, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% CIN +0.5 pts

Bengals penalties, every game · Vikings penalties, every game · All teams, 2025

When it happened

Vikings’ chance of winning

Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Vikings were ahead in it, below while the Bengals were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 14:41 Low Block on the Bengals (Daxton Hill), 15 yardsJudgment calls · 10 flags in 1967 snaps before, position avg 1 per 213 +5% MIN MIN: Touchdown
2 Q1 13:01 The Vikings converted 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 42% expected +5% MIN MIN: Touchdown
3 Q1 9:45 The Vikings were stopped on 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 31% expected +4% CIN MIN: Punt
4 Q1 7:08 The Bengals fumbled and recovered it themselvesFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +6% CIN CIN: Opp touchdown
5 Q1 6:25 The Bengals threw an interception-worthy pass, and it was pickedInterceptions · 51% expected to stay out of the defense's handsReturn touchdown by the VikingsSpecial teams +23% MIN CIN: Punt
6 Q1 0:55 The Bengals converted 3rd & 123rd & 4th downs · 19% expected +4% CIN CIN: Punt
7 Q2 14:56 Offensive Holding on the Bengals, 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls +5% MIN MIN: Field goal
8 Q2 2:00 The Bengals fumbled and the Vikings recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50Return touchdown by the VikingsSpecial teams +15% MIN CIN: Turnover

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Jordan Addison (MIN WR), out (IR) · 0.9 pts
  • Ryan Kelly (MIN C), out · 0.5 pts
  • Aaron Jones (MIN RB), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Justin Skule (MIN T), out · 0.3 pts
  • Blake Cashman (MIN LB), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Joe Burrow (CIN QB), out (IR), replaced by j.browning · 2.7 pts
  • Cordell Volson (CIN G), out (IR) · 0.7 pts
  • Cam Taylor-Britt (CIN CB), out · 0.6 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Bengals 0% · Vikings 100%

Final margin
Vikings by 38
Luck in points
4.7 for the Vikings
Luck-adjusted margin
Vikings by 33.3
Replay with same day's form
Bengals 2% · Vikings 98% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 3 2025 games · Bengals · Vikings

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