luckadjusted

Week 3 2025 · September 21, 2025

Jets at Buccaneers, Week 3 2025: who deserved to win?

The Buccaneers beat the Jets 29–27 and were the better team on the day: replayed with the same form, they win 6 of 10. The Jets had the bounces: judgment calls alone were worth 34 points of win probability to the Jets.

Before kickoff the Buccaneers were 68% favorites. The biggest swing (Q4, 2:00 left): C. McLaughlin had a 43-yard field goal blocked, worth 45 points of win probability to the Jets.

Final

New York Jets 27
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 29

September 21, 2025 · Raymond James Stadium · Closing line: Buccaneers −6.5

Luck index +37 Buccaneers lucky · −37 Jets

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Jets win 4, Buccaneers win 6.

  1. 1 NYJ 23 TB 3
  2. 2 NYJ 34 TB 21
  3. 3 NYJ 22 TB 16
  4. 4 NYJ 22 TB 20
  5. 5 NYJ 27 TB 29
  6. 6 NYJ 31 TB 36
  7. 7 NYJ 20 TB 29
  8. 8 NYJ 27 TB 39
  9. 9 NYJ 10 TB 27
  10. 10 NYJ 10 TB 34

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Jets win 37% of them, Buccaneers 63%, counting the 3% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Buccaneers by 2.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Jets by 17+5.7%
Jets by 9–1610.8%
Jets by 1–818.8%
Level after regulation2.6%
Buccaneers by 1–826.0%
Buccaneers by 9–1619.3%
Buccaneers by 17+16.9%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +18.0 points to the Jets: the final margin was Buccaneers by 2, without the luck Buccaneers by 19.9. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • N. Folk, 38 yds made · 92% expected
  • C. McLaughlin, 54 yds made · 68% expected
  • N. Folk, 42 yds made · 87% expected
  • C. McLaughlin, 33 yds made · 95% expected
  • C. McLaughlin, 28 yds made · 98% expected
  • C. McLaughlin, 55 yds made · 66% expected
  • C. McLaughlin, 43 yds blocked · 84% expected
  • C. McLaughlin, 36 yds made · 92% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Jets 7 for 81 yards, Buccaneers 14 for 124 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 13:11 Horse Collar Tackle on the Buccaneers (Logan Hall), 15 yards +5% NYJ +2.3 pts
Q1 10:31 Defensive Pass Interference on the Buccaneers (Lavonte David), 4 yards +3% NYJ +1.2 pts
Q1 9:50 Illegal Formation on the Jets, 5 yards, wiping out the play · pre-snap +3% TB +1.4 pts
Q1 8:27 Face Mask on the Jets (Quinnen Williams), 15 yards +2% TB +0.9 pts
Q1 8:09 Offensive Holding on the Buccaneers (Ryan Miller), 10 yards +2% NYJ +0.9 pts
Q1 6:06 Offensive Holding on the Buccaneers, 10 yards +3% NYJ +1.5 pts
Q1 5:59 Offensive Holding on the Buccaneers (Mike Evans), 10 yards, wiping out the play +7% NYJ +1.2 pts
Q1 5:30 Defensive Pass Interference on the Jets (Sauce Gardner), 26 yards +14% TB +3.3 pts
Q1 3:57 Offensive Holding on the Buccaneers, 10 yards, wiping out the play +8% NYJ +2.7 pts
Q1 3:27 Offensive Holding on the Buccaneers, 10 yards, wiping out the play +10% NYJ +3.1 pts
Q1 0:50 Offensive Holding on the Jets, 10 yards +3% TB +1.4 pts
Q2 8:18 Offensive Holding on the Buccaneers, 10 yards, wiping out the play +6% NYJ +2.5 pts
Q2 7:40 Defensive Offside on the Buccaneers (YaYa Diaby), 5 yards · pre-snap 0% NYJ +0.3 pts
Q2 5:41 False Start on the Buccaneers, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% NYJ +0.7 pts
Q2 2:52 Face Mask on the Jets (Micheal Clemons), 15 yards +2% TB +1.4 pts
Q3 12:23 Offensive Holding on the Buccaneers, 10 yards +1% NYJ +1.1 pts
Q3 5:51 Illegal Formation on the Jets, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% TB +0.5 pts
Q4 6:26 False Start on the Buccaneers, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% NYJ +0.4 pts
Q4 5:22 Defensive Pass Interference on the Buccaneers (Jamel Dean), 15 yards, wiping out the play +5% NYJ +6.1 pts
Q4 5:14 False Start on the Jets, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% TB +0.6 pts
Q4 2:00 Delay of Game on the Buccaneers, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% NYJ +0.3 pts

Jets penalties, every game · Buccaneers penalties, every game · All teams, 2025

When it happened

Buccaneers’ chance of winning

As low as 44% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Buccaneers were ahead in it, below while the Jets were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 5:30 Defensive Pass Interference on the Jets (Sauce Gardner), 26 yardsJudgment calls · 17 flags in 3280 snaps before, position avg 1 per 213 +14% TB TB: Field goal
2 Q1 3:57 Offensive Holding on the Buccaneers, 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls +8% NYJ NYJ: Field goal
3 Q1 3:27 Offensive Holding on the Buccaneers, 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls +10% NYJ NYJ: Field goal
4 Q2 12:16 The Buccaneers converted 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 34% expected +10% TB TB: Touchdown
5 Q2 2:59 The Jets were stopped on 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 32% expectedThe Jets fumbled and the Buccaneers recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +15% TB NYJ: Punt
6 Q2 0:28 The Jets threw an interception-worthy pass, and it was pickedInterceptions · 47% expected to stay out of the defense's handsReturn touchdown by the BuccaneersSpecial teams +16% TB NYJ: End of half
7 Q4 2:00 C. McLaughlin had a 43-yard field goal blockedKicks · 84% expected for himDelay of Game on the Buccaneers, 5 yardsPre-snap flags +45% NYJ TB: Field goal
8 Q4 0:03 C. McLaughlin made 36-yard field goalKicks · 92% expected for him +26% TB –

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Tristan Wirfs (TB T), out · 1.6 pts
  • Calijah Kancey (TB DE), out (IR) · 0.5 pts
  • Luke Goedeke (TB T), out (IR) · 0.5 pts
  • Luke Goedeke (TB G), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Jalen McMillan (TB WR), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Cody Mauch (TB G), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Calijah Kancey (TB DL), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
  • Tony Adams (NYJ S), out · 0.3 pts
  • Tony Adams (NYJ FS), out · 0.3 pts
  • Jermaine Johnson II (NYJ LB), out · 0.2 pts
  • Alijah Vera-Tucker (NYJ G), out (IR) · 0.2 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Jets 7% · Buccaneers 93%

Final margin
Buccaneers by 2
Luck in points
17.9 for the Jets
Luck-adjusted margin
Buccaneers by 19.9
Replay with same day's form
Jets 37% · Buccaneers 63% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 3 2025 games · Jets · Buccaneers

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