luckadjusted

Week 14 2025 · December 7, 2025

Titans at Browns, Week 14 2025: who deserved to win?

The Titans beat the Browns 31–29, but the Browns played well enough to win it: they take 7 of 10 replays with the same day's form.

Before kickoff the Browns were 63% favorites. The biggest swing (Q4, 12:28 left): Illegal Shift on the Titans, 5 yards, wiping out the play, worth 19 points of win probability to the Browns.

Final

Tennessee Titans 31
Cleveland Browns 29

December 7, 2025 · FirstEnergy Stadium · Closing line: Browns −4.5

Luck index +66 Titans very lucky · −66 Browns

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Titans win 3, Browns win 7.

  1. 1 TEN 33 CLE 14
  2. 2 TEN 27 CLE 16
  3. 3 TEN 16 CLE 13
  4. 4 TEN 10 CLE 13
  5. 5 TEN 24 CLE 29
  6. 6 TEN 10 CLE 19
  7. 7 TEN 18 CLE 30
  8. 8 TEN 22 CLE 37
  9. 9 TEN 18 CLE 38
  10. 10 TEN 3 CLE 30

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Titans win 34% of them, Browns 66%, counting the 3% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Titans by 2.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Titans by 17+6.2%
Titans by 9–1610.7%
Titans by 1–816.5%
Level after regulation2.6%
Browns by 1–822.4%
Browns by 9–1619.5%
Browns by 17+22.1%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +5.4 points to the Browns: the final margin was Titans by 2, without the luck Titans by 7.4. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • A. Szmyt, 38 yds made · 88% expected
  • J. Slye, 41 yds made · 83% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Titans 11 for 85 yards, Browns 7 for 50 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 7:33 False Start on the Browns (Mohamoud Diabate), 5 yards · pre-snap +2% TEN +0.3 pts
Q1 1:29 Kickoff Out of Bounds on the Titans (Joey Slye), 0 yards · pre-snap 0% CLE 0.0 pts
Q2 8:11 Intentional Grounding on the Browns (Shedeur Sanders), 10 yards +3% TEN +0.7 pts
Q2 7:12 Delay of Game on the Browns, 5 yards · pre-snap +6% TEN +0.5 pts
Q3 7:50 False Start on the Titans, 5 yards · pre-snap +3% CLE +0.8 pts
Q3 5:56 Ineligible Downfield Pass on the Titans, 5 yards, wiping out the play +11% CLE +2.1 pts
Q3 2:29 Offensive Holding on the Browns (Blake Whiteheart), 10 yards, wiping out the play +6% TEN +2.1 pts
Q4 15:00 Neutral Zone Infraction on the Titans (Jeffery Simmons), 5 yards · pre-snap +2% CLE +0.7 pts
Q4 14:02 Illegal Blindside Block on the Titans (David Martin-Robinson), 15 yards +5% CLE +1.5 pts
Q4 12:31 False Start on the Titans (Chigoziem Okonkwo), 5 yards · pre-snap +4% CLE +0.6 pts
Q4 12:28 Illegal Shift on the Titans, 5 yards, wiping out the play · pre-snap +19% CLE +3.4 pts
Q4 8:46 False Start on the Browns, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% TEN +0.5 pts
Q4 6:04 Offensive Holding on the Browns, 10 yards, wiping out the play +2% TEN +1.8 pts
Q4 5:27 Unnecessary Roughness on the Titans (Xavier Woods), 15 yards +2% CLE +1.5 pts
Q4 5:01 Face Mask on the Titans (Cedric Gray), 8 yards +1% CLE +0.9 pts
Q4 2:43 Roughing the Passer on the Titans (Jihad Ward), 15 yards +2% CLE +1.2 pts
Q4 2:10 False Start on the Browns, 5 yards · pre-snap +6% TEN +0.7 pts
Q4 1:21 Face Mask on the Titans (Cedric Gray), 7 yards +8% CLE +0.9 pts

Titans penalties, every game · Browns penalties, every game · All teams, 2025

When it happened

Browns’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 77%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Browns were ahead in it, below while the Titans were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 13:32 The Titans converted 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 25% expected +14% TEN TEN: Touchdown
2 Q1 3:54 The Titans were stopped on 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 27% expectedThe Titans threw an interception-worthy pass, and it was pickedInterceptions · 48% expected to stay out of the defense's hands +16% CLE TEN: Touchdown
3 Q2 14:30 The Browns converted 3rd & 13rd & 4th downs · 63% expected +11% CLE CLE: Touchdown
4 Q2 0:40 The Titans were stopped on 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 43% expected +10% CLE TEN: Punt
5 Q3 5:56 Ineligible Downfield Pass on the Titans, 5 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls +11% CLE CLE: Turnover
6 Q4 13:02 The Titans converted 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 32% expected +10% TEN TEN: Punt
7 Q4 12:28 Illegal Shift on the Titans, 5 yards, wiping out the playPre-snap flags +19% CLE CLE: Turnover
8 Q4 9:35 The Titans converted 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 31% expected +10% TEN TEN: Touchdown

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Jack Conklin (CLE T), out · 1.0 pts
  • Wyatt Teller (CLE G), out · 0.4 pts
  • Maliek Collins (CLE DT), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • L'Jarius Sneed (TEN CB), out (IR) · 0.6 pts
  • Lloyd Cushenberry III (TEN C), out · 0.4 pts
  • Jalyn Armour-Davis (TEN CB), out · 0.4 pts
  • Oluwafemi Oladejo (TEN LB), out (IR) · 0.1 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Titans 89% · Browns 11%

Final margin
Titans by 2
Luck in points
5.4 for the Browns
Luck-adjusted margin
Titans by 7.4
Replay with same day's form
Titans 34% · Browns 66% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 14 2025 games · Titans · Browns

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