luckadjusted

Week 14 2025 · December 7, 2025

Colts at Jaguars, Week 14 2025: who deserved to win?

The Jaguars beat the Colts 36–19 and were the better team on the day: replayed with the same form, they win 6 of 10.

Before kickoff the Colts were 57% favorites. The biggest swing (Q1, 3:54 left): the Jaguars converted 3rd & 5, worth 12 points of win probability to the Jaguars.

Final

Indianapolis Colts 19
Jacksonville Jaguars 36

December 7, 2025 · TIAA Bank Stadium · Closing line: Colts −2.5

Luck index +38 Jaguars lucky · −38 Colts

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Colts win 4, Jaguars win 6.

  1. 1 IND 37 JAX 19
  2. 2 IND 28 JAX 17
  3. 3 IND 31 JAX 24
  4. 4 IND 23 JAX 20
  5. 5 IND 28 JAX 30
  6. 6 IND 6 JAX 10
  7. 7 IND 23 JAX 31
  8. 8 IND 13 JAX 25
  9. 9 IND 20 JAX 36
  10. 10 IND 13 JAX 38

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Colts win 38% of them, Jaguars 62%, counting the 3% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Jaguars by 17.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Colts by 17+6.0%
Colts by 9–1611.0%
Colts by 1–818.5%
Level after regulation2.9%
Jaguars by 1–826.3%
Jaguars by 9–1618.1%
Jaguars by 17+17.3%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +2.0 points to the Colts: the final margin was Jaguars by 17, without the luck Jaguars by 18.9. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • B. Grupe, 28 yds made · 96% expected
  • B. Grupe, 36 yds made · 90% expected
  • C. Little, 35 yds made · 93% expected
  • C. Little, 48 yds made · 76% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Colts 5 for 45 yards, Jaguars 8 for 64 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 12:13 False Start on the Jaguars (Brenton Strange), 5 yards · pre-snap +2% IND +0.6 pts
Q1 2:27 Defensive Holding on the Jaguars (Jourdan Lewis), 5 yards +2% IND +0.9 pts
Q1 1:30 False Start on the Colts, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% JAX +0.6 pts
Q1 0:43 Chop Block on the Colts (Jonathan Taylor), 15 yards, wiping out the play +5% JAX +2.3 pts
Q2 6:26 Offensive Holding on the Colts, 10 yards +2% JAX +0.9 pts
Q2 5:53 Defensive Pass Interference on the Jaguars (Jarrian Jones), 13 yards +5% IND +2.1 pts
Q2 2:01 Neutral Zone Infraction on the Jaguars (Maason Smith), 5 yards · pre-snap +1% IND +0.7 pts
Q2 1:41 False Start on the Jaguars (Tim Patrick), 5 yards · pre-snap +1% IND +0.5 pts
Q2 0:20 False Start on the Jaguars, 5 yards · pre-snap +2% IND +0.7 pts
Q3 12:07 Defensive Pass Interference on the Jaguars (Montaric Brown), 16 yards +2% IND +1.7 pts
Q3 10:42 Offensive Pass Interference on the Colts (Michael Pittman Jr.), 10 yards, wiping out the play +7% JAX +2.7 pts
Q3 8:05 Illegal Formation on the Colts, 5 yards, wiping out the play · pre-snap +4% JAX +2.4 pts
Q4 15:00 Offensive Pass Interference on the Jaguars (Jakobi Meyers), 10 yards, wiping out the play +2% IND +3.1 pts

Colts penalties, every game · Jaguars penalties, every game · All teams, 2025

When it happened

Jaguars’ chance of winning

As low as 50% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Jaguars were ahead in it, below while the Colts were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 4:32 The Jaguars fumbled and recovered it themselvesFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +7% JAX JAX: Touchdown
2 Q1 3:54 The Jaguars converted 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 39% expected +12% JAX JAX: Touchdown
3 Q1 0:43 Chop Block on the Colts (Jonathan Taylor), 15 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls · 3 flags in 3584 snaps before, position avg 1 per 829 +5% JAX JAX: Punt
4 Q2 7:56 The Colts converted 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 30% expected +5% IND IND: Field goal
5 Q2 5:06 The Colts got away with an interception-worthy throwInterceptions · 50% expected to stay out of the defense's hands +5% IND IND: Field goal
6 Q2 1:50 The Colts were stopped on 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 71% expected +5% JAX IND: End of half
7 Q2 1:37 The Jaguars converted 3rd & 153rd & 4th downs · 19% expected +5% JAX JAX: Touchdown
8 Q3 10:42 Offensive Pass Interference on the Colts (Michael Pittman Jr.), 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls · 26 flags in 5387 snaps before, position avg 1 per 403 +7% JAX JAX: Punt

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Parker Washington (JAX WR), out · 0.6 pts
  • Andrew Wingard (JAX S), out · 0.4 pts
  • Travis Hunter (JAX WR), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Walker Little (JAX OL), out · 0.3 pts
  • Sauce Gardner (IND CB), out · 0.7 pts
  • DeForest Buckner (IND DT), out (IR) · 0.6 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Colts 0% · Jaguars 100%

Final margin
Jaguars by 17
Luck in points
2.0 for the Colts
Luck-adjusted margin
Jaguars by 19.0
Replay with same day's form
Colts 38% · Jaguars 62% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 14 2025 games · Colts · Jaguars

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