luckadjusted

Week 16 2025 · December 21, 2025

Chiefs at Titans, Week 16 2025: who deserved to win?

The Titans beat the Chiefs 26–9 and were the better team on the day: replayed with the same form, they win 6 of 10.

Before kickoff the Chiefs were 60% favorites.

Final

Kansas City Chiefs 9
Tennessee Titans 26

December 21, 2025 · Nissan Stadium · Closing line: Chiefs −3.5

Luck index +35 Titans lucky · −35 Chiefs

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Chiefs win 4, Titans win 6.

  1. 1 KC 24 TEN 6
  2. 2 KC 20 TEN 10
  3. 3 KC 27 TEN 21
  4. 4 KC 15 TEN 13
  5. 5 KC 20 TEN 22
  6. 6 KC 12 TEN 17
  7. 7 KC 13 TEN 22
  8. 8 KC 12 TEN 23
  9. 9 KC 17 TEN 33
  10. 10 KC 13 TEN 36

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Chiefs win 35% of them, Titans 65%, counting the 2% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Titans by 17.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Chiefs by 17+4.6%
Chiefs by 9–169.7%
Chiefs by 1–819.6%
Level after regulation1.9%
Titans by 1–828.2%
Titans by 9–1619.5%
Titans by 17+16.4%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +10.9 points to the Titans: the final margin was Titans by 17, without the luck Titans by 6.1. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • H. Butker, 54 yds made · 68% expected
  • H. Butker, 41 yds made · 87% expected
  • H. Butker, 51 yds missed · 73% expected
  • H. Butker, 27 yds made · 99% expected
  • J. Slye, 27 yds made · 97% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Chiefs 10 for 59 yards, Titans 12 for 82 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 14:15 False Start on the Chiefs, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% TEN +0.7 pts
Q1 13:55 False Start on the Chiefs, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% TEN +0.3 pts
Q1 8:31 Offensive Holding on the Titans, 5 yards +1% KC +0.5 pts
Q1 7:49 False Start on the Titans, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% KC +0.8 pts
Q1 1:39 Defensive Offside on the Titans (Arden Key), 5 yards · pre-snap +2% KC +0.3 pts
Q2 13:19 Illegal Block Above the Waist on the Chiefs (Mike Edwards), 3 yards +1% TEN +0.4 pts
Q2 13:09 False Start on the Chiefs, 1 yard · pre-snap +1% TEN +0.4 pts
Q2 13:06 Unnecessary Roughness on the Chiefs (Jaden Hicks), 15 yards +4% TEN +1.4 pts
Q2 11:50 Delay of Game on the Titans, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% KC +0.4 pts
Q2 7:40 Offensive Holding on the Titans (Kalel Mullings), 10 yards +2% KC +0.7 pts
Q2 0:06 Offensive Holding on the Titans (David Martin-Robinson), 0 yards 0% KC 0.0 pts
Q3 6:22 Defensive Pass Interference on the Titans (Darrell Baker), 17 yards +3% KC +1.2 pts
Q3 3:17 Encroachment on the Titans (Jeffery Simmons), 5 yards · pre-snap +1% KC +0.2 pts
Q3 1:30 Illegal Contact on the Chiefs (Jaden Hicks), 5 yards +2% TEN +1.4 pts
Q4 14:14 Defensive Offside on the Chiefs (Kevin Knowles), 5 yards · pre-snap +4% TEN +1.9 pts
Q4 11:56 Offensive Holding on the Chiefs (Noah Gray), 10 yards +1% TEN +1.5 pts
Q4 11:45 Neutral Zone Infraction on the Titans, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% KC +0.5 pts
Q4 11:45 False Start on the Chiefs, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% TEN +0.5 pts
Q4 10:58 False Start on the Chiefs, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% TEN +0.6 pts
Q4 10:14 Offensive Holding on the Titans (Jerrick Reed), 10 yards 0% KC +0.9 pts
Q4 4:09 Illegal Formation on the Titans (Jeffery Simmons), 5 yards, wiping out the play · pre-snap 0% KC +1.6 pts
Q4 4:06 Illegal Block Above the Waist on the Titans, 10 yards 0% KC +1.7 pts

Chiefs penalties, every game · Titans penalties, every game · All teams, 2025

When it happened

Titans’ chance of winning

Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Titans were ahead in it, below while the Chiefs were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 10:18 The Titans were stopped on 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 71% expected +6% KC TEN: Punt
2 Q2 13:56 The Titans were stopped on 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 50% expected +5% KC TEN: Punt
3 Q2 13:19 The Chiefs fumbled and recovered it themselvesFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50Illegal Block Above the Waist on the Chiefs (Mike Edwards), 3 yardsJudgment calls · 4 flags in 4165 snaps before, position avg 1 per 467 +6% KC KC: Safety
4 Q2 11:53 The Titans were stopped on 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 39% expectedC. Dike dropped a catchable passDrops · 1 drops on 40 catchable balls before this +6% KC TEN: Punt
5 Q2 7:48 The Chiefs were stopped on 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 46% expected +6% TEN KC: Field goal
6 Q2 4:46 The Titans converted 3rd & 23rd & 4th downs · 58% expected +6% TEN TEN: Touchdown
7 Q3 13:36 The Titans converted 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 44% expected +7% TEN TEN: Touchdown
8 Q3 7:47 H. Butker missed 51-yard field goalKicks · 73% expected for him, 53 of 71 from 45+ before +6% TEN KC: Field goal

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Xavier Woods (TEN S), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Cedric Gray (TEN LB), out · 0.2 pts
  • Patrick Mahomes (KC QB), out (IR), replaced by c.oladokun · 7.1 pts
  • Trent McDuffie (KC CB), out · 1.4 pts
  • Jawaan Taylor (KC T), out (IR) · 0.8 pts
  • Josh Simmons (KC T), out (IR) · 0.7 pts
  • Rashee Rice (KC WR), out · 0.7 pts
  • Jaylon Moore (KC OL), out · 0.2 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Chiefs 0% · Titans 100%

Final margin
Titans by 17
Luck in points
10.9 for the Titans
Luck-adjusted margin
Titans by 6.1
Replay with same day's form
Chiefs 35% · Titans 65% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 16 2025 games · Chiefs · Titans

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