luckadjusted

Week 16 2025 · December 18, 2025

Rams at Seahawks, Week 16 2025: who deserved to win?

The Seahawks beat the Rams 38–37, but the Rams played well enough to win it: they take 7 of 10 replays with the same day's form. Luck ran their way: drops alone were worth 57 points of win probability to the Seahawks.

Before kickoff the Seahawks were 54% favorites. The game turned on a luck play (Q4, 0:57 left): C. Parkinson dropped a catchable pass, worth 27 points of win probability to the Seahawks. The biggest single swing (QOT, 3:13 left): the Seahawks’ two-point try was good.

Final (OT)

Los Angeles Rams 37
Seattle Seahawks 38

December 18, 2025 · Lumen Field · Closing line: Seahawks −1.5

Luck index +71 Seahawks very lucky · −71 Rams

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Rams win 7, Seahawks win 3.

  1. 1 LA 48 SEA 19
  2. 2 LA 56 SEA 37
  3. 3 LA 38 SEA 24
  4. 4 LA 36 SEA 26
  5. 5 LA 43 SEA 35
  6. 6 LA 40 SEA 34
  7. 7 LA 26 SEA 23
  8. 8 LA 30 SEA 32
  9. 9 LA 15 SEA 24
  10. 10 LA 29 SEA 50

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Rams win 71% of them, Seahawks 29%, counting the 3% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Seahawks by 1.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Rams by 17+26.2%
Rams by 9–1619.9%
Rams by 1–822.7%
Level after regulation2.9%
Seahawks by 1–814.9%
Seahawks by 9–167.7%
Seahawks by 17+5.7%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +15.1 points to the Seahawks: the final margin was Seahawks by 1, without the luck Rams by 14.1. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • H. Mevis, 23 yds made · 99% expected
  • H. Mevis, 28 yds made · 97% expected
  • H. Mevis, 41 yds made · 82% expected
  • H. Mevis, 48 yds missed · 70% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Rams 8 for 54 yards, Seahawks 5 for 40 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 1:49 Ineligible Downfield Pass on the Rams, 4 yards, wiping out the play +9% SEA +4.1 pts
Q2 12:49 Delay of Game on the Rams, 5 yards · pre-snap +4% SEA +0.2 pts
Q2 12:45 False Start on the Seahawks, 5 yards · pre-snap +2% LA +0.5 pts
Q2 0:58 Defensive Holding on the Rams (Josh Wallace), 5 yards +4% SEA +0.8 pts
Q3 11:20 Offensive Holding on the Rams, 10 yards, wiping out the play +6% SEA +1.9 pts
Q3 8:56 False Start on the Rams, 5 yards · pre-snap +3% SEA +0.2 pts
Q3 8:32 False Start on the Seahawks, 5 yards · pre-snap +3% LA +0.6 pts
Q3 5:22 Offensive Holding on the Seahawks, 10 yards +1% LA +0.7 pts
Q4 2:41 Unnecessary Roughness on the Seahawks (Ty Okada), 15 yards +11% LA +2.2 pts
Q4 2:32 Offensive Holding on the Rams (Davis Allen), 10 yards, wiping out the play +18% SEA +1.6 pts
QOT 10:00 Offensive Holding on the Rams (Shaun Dolac), 10 yards +7% SEA +0.9 pts
QOT 8:29 Illegal Contact on the Seahawks (Ernest Jones), 5 yards +8% LA +1.0 pts
QOT 5:13 Defensive Pass Interference on the Rams (Emmanuel Forbes), 5 yards +10% SEA +0.8 pts

Rams penalties, every game · Seahawks penalties, every game · All teams, 2025

When it happened

Seahawks’ chance of winning

As low as 1% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Seahawks were ahead in it, below while the Rams were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q3 12:07 The Rams converted 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 27% expected +19% LA LA: Field goal
2 Q3 6:44 The Seahawks were stopped on 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 32% expectedThe Seahawks threw an interception-worthy pass, and it was pickedInterceptions · 52% expected to stay out of the defense's hands +29% LA SEA: Punt
3 Q4 5:39 C. Parkinson dropped a catchable passDrops · 5 drops on 127 catchable balls before this +13% SEA LA: Punt
4 Q4 2:32 Offensive Holding on the Rams (Davis Allen), 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls · 6 flags in 1410 snaps before, position avg 1 per 278 +18% SEA SEA: Punt
5 Q4 2:11 H. Mevis missed 48-yard field goalKicks · 70% expected for him, 1 of 1 from 45+ before +20% SEA LA: Punt
6 Q4 0:57 The game turned hereC. Parkinson dropped a catchable passDrops · 6 drops on 129 catchable balls before this +27% SEA LA: Punt
7 QOT 7:42 The Rams converted 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 35% expected +17% LA LA: Touchdown
8 QOT 3:13 The Seahawks’ two-point try was good3rd & 4th downs · 47% expected +53% SEA –

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Charles Cross (SEA T), out · 1.0 pts
  • Tory Horton (SEA WR), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Davante Adams (LA WR), out · 0.9 pts
  • Rob Havenstein (LA OL), out (IR) · 0.6 pts
  • Quentin Lake (LA S), out (IR) · 0.3 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Rams 97% · Seahawks 3%

Final margin
Seahawks by 1
Luck in points
15.1 for the Seahawks
Luck-adjusted margin
Rams by 14.1
Replay with same day's form
Rams 71% · Seahawks 29% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 16 2025 games · Rams · Seahawks

More from Week 16 2025