luckadjusted

Week 16 2025 · December 20, 2025

Eagles at Commanders, Week 16 2025: who deserved to win?

The Eagles beat the Commanders 29–18 and were the better team on the day: replayed with the same form, they win 6 of 10. The Commanders had the bounces: kicks alone were worth 14 points of win probability to the Commanders.

Before kickoff the Eagles were 70% favorites. The biggest swing (Q3, 3:40 left): Offensive Holding on the Eagles, 10 yards, wiping out the play, worth 22 points of win probability to the Commanders.

Final

Philadelphia Eagles 29
Washington Commanders 18

December 20, 2025 · FedExField · Closing line: Eagles −7

Luck index +35 Eagles lucky · −35 Commanders

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Eagles win 6, Commanders win 4.

  1. 1 PHI 34 WAS 10
  2. 2 PHI 20 WAS 3
  3. 3 PHI 30 WAS 17
  4. 4 PHI 27 WAS 19
  5. 5 PHI 24 WAS 20
  6. 6 PHI 19 WAS 17
  7. 7 PHI 20 WAS 22
  8. 8 PHI 19 WAS 24
  9. 9 PHI 28 WAS 38
  10. 10 PHI 6 WAS 24

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Eagles win 65% of them, Commanders 35%, counting the 3% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Eagles by 11.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Eagles by 17+16.4%
Eagles by 9–1620.5%
Eagles by 1–827.1%
Level after regulation2.7%
Commanders by 1–819.6%
Commanders by 9–169.1%
Commanders by 17+4.6%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +4.4 points to the Commanders: the final margin was Eagles by 11, without the luck Eagles by 15.4. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • J. Moody, 20 yds made · 98% expected
  • J. Elliott, 43 yds missed · 83% expected
  • J. Elliott, 52 yds missed · 66% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Eagles 5 for 61 yards, Commanders 5 for 44 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 9:32 Delay of Game on the Eagles, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% WAS +0.9 pts
Q1 6:52 Offensive Holding on the Commanders, 10 yards, wiping out the play +7% PHI +3.1 pts
Q1 3:04 False Start on the Eagles, 4 yards · pre-snap +3% WAS +0.8 pts
Q2 0:18 Defensive Offside on the Commanders (Tyler Owens), 5 yards · pre-snap +10% PHI +0.8 pts
Q3 8:54 Illegal Contact on the Commanders (Will Harris), 5 yards +10% PHI +3.0 pts
Q3 5:38 Defensive Pass Interference on the Commanders (Noah Igbinoghene), 19 yards +12% PHI +2.6 pts
Q3 4:49 False Start on the Eagles, 5 yards · pre-snap +4% WAS +1.1 pts
Q3 3:40 Offensive Holding on the Eagles, 10 yards, wiping out the play +22% WAS +3.8 pts
Q3 1:53 False Start on the Commanders (Jeremy McNichols), 5 yards · pre-snap +4% PHI +0.5 pts
Q4 1:19 Defensive Pass Interference on the Eagles (Kelee Ringo), 37 yards 0% WAS +3.4 pts

Eagles penalties, every game · Commanders penalties, every game · All teams, 2025

When it happened

Commanders’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 74%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Commanders were ahead in it, below while the Eagles were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q2 0:18 Defensive Offside on the Commanders (Tyler Owens), 5 yardsPre-snap flags · 3 flags in 605 snaps before, position avg 1 per 467 +10% PHI PHI: Missed field goal
2 Q2 0:09 J. Elliott missed 52-yard field goalKicks · 66% expected for him, 40 of 62 from 45+ before +15% WAS PHI: Touchdown
3 Q3 8:54 Illegal Contact on the Commanders (Will Harris), 5 yardsJudgment calls · 15 flags in 5292 snaps before, position avg 1 per 467 +10% PHI PHI: Touchdown
4 Q3 5:38 Defensive Pass Interference on the Commanders (Noah Igbinoghene), 19 yardsJudgment calls · 15 flags in 2454 snaps before, position avg 1 per 213 +12% PHI PHI: Touchdown
5 Q3 3:40 Offensive Holding on the Eagles, 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls +22% WAS WAS: Turnover
6 Q3 3:33 The Eagles converted 3rd & 153rd & 4th downs · 23% expected +19% PHI PHI: Touchdown
7 Q3 2:41 The Commanders converted 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 30% expected +10% WAS WAS: Turnover
8 Q3 0:40 The Commanders were stopped on 3rd & 133rd & 4th downs · 24% expectedThe Commanders threw an interception-worthy pass, and it was pickedInterceptions · 51% expected to stay out of the defense's hands +11% PHI WAS: Punt

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Jayden Daniels (WAS QB), out, replaced by m.mariota · 2.4 pts
  • Laremy Tunsil (WAS T), out · 1.0 pts
  • Marshon Lattimore (WAS CB), out (IR) · 0.9 pts
  • Zach Ertz (WAS TE), out (IR) · 0.8 pts
  • Trey Amos (WAS CB), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Luke McCaffrey (WAS WR), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
  • Lane Johnson (PHI T), out · 0.9 pts
  • Jalen Carter (PHI DT), out · 0.7 pts
  • Andrew Mukuba (PHI S), out (IR) · 0.3 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Eagles 98% · Commanders 2%

Final margin
Eagles by 11
Luck in points
4.4 for the Commanders
Luck-adjusted margin
Eagles by 15.4
Replay with same day's form
Eagles 65% · Commanders 35% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 16 2025 games · Eagles · Commanders

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