luckadjusted

2025 NFL season · December 18, 2025–December 22

Week 16 2025: who deserved to win

6 of 16 winners were outplayed on the day. The biggest heist: the Seahawks beat the Rams 38–37 in a game they win 29% of the time when it’s replayed with the way both teams played.

The line on each card fills with how often the loser wins the replay: the fuller, the more luck decided it. Outlined: the winner was outplayed.

Week 16 2025 upsets

Games the betting underdog won, biggest upset first, and whether the way both teams played backs it up. 4 of 6 were deserved: the underdog wins 60% or more of the replays with the same day’s form.

WinnerGameBefore kickoffReplay with same day’s formVerdict
Steelers 29–24 @ Lions 29% 62% Deserved
Titans 26–9 vs Chiefs 40% 65% Deserved
Jaguars 34–20 @ Broncos 40% 33% Lucky
Patriots 28–24 @ Ravens 40% 67% Deserved
Panthers 23–20 vs Buccaneers 41% 53% Coin flip
Chargers 34–17 @ Cowboys 46% 66% Deserved

Week 16 luck ranking

Every team’s luck index this week: 100 × (the result − how often they win the replay). A loss in a game a team wins 9 times in 10 scores −90.

#TeamGameWins the replayLuck index
1 Seahawks W 38–37 vs Rams 29% +71
2 Jaguars W 34–20 @ Broncos 33% +67
3 Bears W 22–16 vs Packers 37% +63
4 Texans W 23–21 vs Raiders 39% +61
5 Falcons W 26–19 @ Cardinals 39% +61
6 Vikings W 16–13 @ Giants 50% +50
7 Panthers W 23–20 vs Buccaneers 53% +47
8 Steelers W 29–24 @ Lions 62% +38
9 Eagles W 29–18 @ Commanders 65% +35
10 Titans W 26–9 vs Chiefs 65% +35
11 Chargers W 34–17 @ Cowboys 66% +34
12 Patriots W 28–24 @ Ravens 67% +33
13 Saints W 29–6 vs Jets 86% +14
14 Bengals W 45–21 @ Dolphins 91% +9
15 Bills W 23–20 @ Browns 95% +5
16 49ers W 48–27 @ Colts 96% +4
17 Colts L 27–48 vs 49ers 4% −4
18 Browns L 20–23 vs Bills 5% −5
19 Dolphins L 21–45 vs Bengals 9% −9
20 Jets L 6–29 @ Saints 14% −14
21 Ravens L 24–28 vs Patriots 33% −33
22 Cowboys L 17–34 vs Chargers 34% −34
23 Chiefs L 9–26 @ Titans 35% −35
24 Commanders L 18–29 vs Eagles 35% −35
25 Lions L 24–29 vs Steelers 38% −38
26 Buccaneers L 20–23 @ Panthers 47% −47
27 Giants L 13–16 vs Vikings 50% −50
28 Cardinals L 19–26 vs Falcons 61% −61
29 Raiders L 21–23 @ Texans 61% −61
30 Packers L 16–22 @ Bears 63% −63
31 Broncos L 20–34 vs Jaguars 67% −67
32 Rams L 37–38 @ Seahawks 71% −71