luckadjusted

2025 NFL season · December 11, 2025–December 15

Week 15 2025: who deserved to win

4 of 16 winners were outplayed on the day. The biggest heist: the Broncos beat the Packers 34–26 in a game they win 8% of the time when it’s replayed with the way both teams played.

The line on each card fills with how often the loser wins the replay: the fuller, the more luck decided it. Outlined: the winner was outplayed.

Week 15 2025 upsets

Games the betting underdog won, biggest upset first, and whether the way both teams played backs it up. 1 of 6 were deserved: the underdog wins 60% or more of the replays with the same day’s form.

WinnerGameBefore kickoffReplay with same day’s formVerdict
Falcons 29–28 @ Buccaneers 33% 20% Lucky
Chargers 16–13 @ Chiefs 34% 53% Coin flip
Vikings 34–26 @ Cowboys 34% 29% Lucky
Commanders 29–21 @ Giants 43% 42% Coin flip
Saints 20–17 vs Panthers 43% 67% Deserved
Broncos 34–26 vs Packers 46% 8% Lucky

Week 15 luck ranking

Every team’s luck index this week: 100 × (the result − how often they win the replay). A loss in a game a team wins 9 times in 10 scores −90.

#TeamGameWins the replayLuck index
1 Broncos W 34–26 vs Packers 8% +92
2 Falcons W 29–28 @ Buccaneers 20% +80
3 Vikings W 34–26 @ Cowboys 29% +71
4 Commanders W 29–21 @ Giants 42% +58
5 Bills W 35–31 @ Patriots 51% +49
6 Chargers W 16–13 @ Chiefs 53% +47
7 Steelers W 28–15 vs Dolphins 61% +39
8 Saints W 20–17 vs Panthers 67% +33
9 Seahawks W 18–16 vs Colts 75% +25
10 Texans W 40–20 vs Cardinals 80% +20
11 Ravens W 24–0 @ Bengals 83% +17
12 Rams W 41–34 vs Lions 84% +16
13 49ers W 37–24 vs Titans 89% +11
14 Jaguars W 48–20 vs Jets 97% +3
15 Bears W 31–3 vs Browns 99% +1
16 Eagles W 31–0 vs Raiders 99% +1
17 Raiders L 0–31 @ Eagles 1% −1
18 Browns L 3–31 @ Bears 1% −1
19 Jets L 20–48 @ Jaguars 3% −3
20 Titans L 24–37 @ 49ers 11% −11
21 Lions L 34–41 @ Rams 16% −16
22 Bengals L 0–24 vs Ravens 17% −17
23 Cardinals L 20–40 @ Texans 20% −20
24 Colts L 16–18 @ Seahawks 25% −25
25 Panthers L 17–20 @ Saints 33% −33
26 Dolphins L 15–28 @ Steelers 39% −39
27 Chiefs L 13–16 vs Chargers 47% −47
28 Patriots L 31–35 vs Bills 49% −49
29 Giants L 21–29 vs Commanders 58% −58
30 Cowboys L 26–34 vs Vikings 71% −71
31 Buccaneers L 28–29 vs Falcons 80% −80
32 Packers L 26–34 @ Broncos 92% −92