luckadjusted

Week 15 2025 · December 14, 2025

Ravens at Bengals, Week 15 2025: who deserved to win?

The Ravens beat the Bengals 24–0, and it was no fluke: replayed with the way both teams actually played, the Ravens win 8 of 10.

Before kickoff the Ravens were 57% favorites. The biggest swing (Q2, 11:48 left): the Bengals were stopped on 3rd & 5, worth 22 points of win probability to the Ravens.

Final

Baltimore Ravens 24
Cincinnati Bengals 0

December 14, 2025 · Paycor Stadium · Closing line: Ravens −2.5

Luck index +17 Ravens about even · −17 Bengals

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Ravens win 8, Bengals win 2.

  1. 1 BAL 29 CIN 3
  2. 2 BAL 30 CIN 10
  3. 3 BAL 16 CIN 0
  4. 4 BAL 16 CIN 3
  5. 5 BAL 27 CIN 17
  6. 6 BAL 21 CIN 14
  7. 7 BAL 21 CIN 16
  8. 8 BAL 16 CIN 13
  9. 9 BAL 14 CIN 17
  10. 10 BAL 3 CIN 14

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Ravens win 83% of them, Bengals 17%, counting the 2% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Ravens by 24.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Ravens by 17+29.9%
Ravens by 9–1623.6%
Ravens by 1–827.6%
Level after regulation1.9%
Bengals by 1–810.5%
Bengals by 9–165.1%
Bengals by 17+1.3%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +5.0 points to the Ravens: the final margin was Ravens by 24, without the luck Ravens by 19. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

Penalties: Ravens 2 for 10 yards, Bengals 4 for 30 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 10:02 Offensive Holding on the Bengals (Chase Brown), 10 yards, wiping out the play +4% BAL +1.7 pts
Q1 7:33 Illegal Use of Hands on the Ravens (Kyle Hamilton), 5 yards, wiping out the play 0% BAL +0.1 pts
Q2 13:32 Neutral Zone Infraction on the Ravens (Kyle Van Noy), 5 yards · pre-snap +6% CIN +2.4 pts
Q2 9:39 Illegal Formation on the Bengals (Mitchell Tinsley), 5 yards · pre-snap +1% BAL +1.0 pts
Q2 1:29 Offensive Holding on the Bengals, 10 yards +3% BAL +0.9 pts
Q4 8:00 False Start on the Bengals, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% BAL +1.0 pts

Ravens penalties, every game · Bengals penalties, every game · All teams, 2025

When it happened

Bengals’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 71%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Bengals were ahead in it, below while the Ravens were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 12:08 The Ravens were stopped on 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 37% expected +6% CIN BAL: Punt
2 Q1 3:44 The Bengals were stopped on 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 48% expected +8% BAL CIN: Punt
3 Q2 13:32 Neutral Zone Infraction on the Ravens (Kyle Van Noy), 5 yardsPre-snap flags · 14 flags in 4994 snaps before, position avg 1 per 445 +6% CIN CIN: Turnover
4 Q2 11:48 The Bengals were stopped on 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 43% expectedThe Bengals were intercepted on a well-placed throwInterceptions · 0% expected to stay out of the defense's hands +22% BAL CIN: Punt
5 Q2 9:46 The Ravens were intercepted on a well-placed throwInterceptions · 0% expected to stay out of the defense's hands +9% CIN BAL: Touchdown
6 Q2 4:42 The Ravens converted 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 37% expected +14% BAL BAL: Touchdown
7 Q2 0:49 The Ravens got away with an interception-worthy throwInterceptions · 51% expected to stay out of the defense's hands +6% BAL BAL: Touchdown
8 Q4 7:55 The Bengals were stopped on 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 28% expectedThe Bengals threw an interception-worthy pass, and it was pickedInterceptions · 47% expected to stay out of the defense's handsReturn touchdown by the RavensSpecial teams +8% BAL CIN: Turnover on downs

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Tee Higgins (CIN WR), out · 1.0 pts
  • Cam Taylor-Britt (CIN CB), out (IR) · 0.5 pts
  • Shemar Stewart (CIN DE), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
  • Rashod Bateman (BAL WR), out · 0.5 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Ravens 100% · Bengals 0%

Final margin
Ravens by 24
Luck in points
5.0 for the Ravens
Luck-adjusted margin
Ravens by 19.0
Replay with same day's form
Ravens 83% · Bengals 17% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 15 2025 games · Ravens · Bengals

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