luckadjusted

Week 11 2025 · November 16, 2025

Texans at Titans, Week 11 2025: who deserved to win?

The Texans beat the Titans 16–13, and it was no fluke: replayed with the way both teams actually played, the Texans win 9 of 10. The Titans had the bounces: injuries alone were worth 13 points of win probability to the Titans.

Before kickoff the Texans were 66% favorites. The biggest swing (Q4, 0:53 left): the Texans got away with an interception-worthy throw, worth 29 points of win probability to the Texans.

Final

Houston Texans 16
Tennessee Titans 13

November 16, 2025 · Nissan Stadium · Closing line: Texans −5.5

Luck index +10 Texans about even · −10 Titans

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Texans win 9, Titans win 1.

  1. 1 HOU 31 TEN 3
  2. 2 HOU 29 TEN 6
  3. 3 HOU 17 TEN 0
  4. 4 HOU 21 TEN 6
  5. 5 HOU 28 TEN 15
  6. 6 HOU 20 TEN 10
  7. 7 HOU 13 TEN 5
  8. 8 HOU 22 TEN 17
  9. 9 HOU 37 TEN 34
  10. 10 HOU 10 TEN 16

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Texans win 90% of them, Titans 10%, counting the 2% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Texans by 3.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Texans by 17+44.0%
Texans by 9–1625.7%
Texans by 1–819.0%
Level after regulation1.6%
Titans by 1–87.8%
Titans by 9–161.5%
Titans by 17+0.4%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +12.2 points to the Titans: the final margin was Texans by 3, without the luck Texans by 15.2. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • J. Slye, 56 yds made · 59% expected
  • J. Slye, 47 yds made · 75% expected
  • M. Wright, 41 yds made · 86% expected
  • M. Wright, 43 yds made · 83% expected
  • M. Wright, 35 yds made · 93% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Texans 5 for 53 yards, Titans 9 for 62 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 10:11 Unnecessary Roughness on the Titans (Jeffery Simmons), 7 yards +8% HOU +2.1 pts
Q1 10:07 Offensive Holding on the Texans, 10 yards +3% TEN +0.9 pts
Q1 5:15 False Start on the Titans, 5 yards · pre-snap +3% HOU +0.7 pts
Q1 4:52 False Start on the Titans, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% HOU +0.7 pts
Q1 2:24 False Start on the Titans, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% HOU +0.6 pts
Q1 0:02 Offensive Holding on the Texans, 10 yards +4% TEN +1.4 pts
Q2 12:23 Offensive Holding on the Titans, 10 yards +1% HOU +0.9 pts
Q2 10:29 False Start on the Titans (Gunnar Helm), 5 yards · pre-snap +2% HOU +0.9 pts
Q2 10:00 Offensive Holding on the Texans (Tremon Smith), 10 yards +3% TEN +1.1 pts
Q3 5:54 Defensive Pass Interference on the Titans (Jalyn Armour-Davis), 14 yards +2% HOU +1.0 pts
Q4 9:32 Offensive Holding on the Titans, 6 yards +2% HOU +0.8 pts
Q4 2:54 Defensive Pass Interference on the Texans (Derek Stingley Jr.), 18 yards +6% TEN +2.3 pts
Q4 2:50 Illegal Use of Hands on the Texans (Denico Autry), 5 yards +5% TEN +0.9 pts
Q4 2:02 False Start on the Titans, 5 yards · pre-snap +2% HOU +0.8 pts

Texans penalties, every game · Titans penalties, every game · All teams, 2025

When it happened

Titans’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 74%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Titans were ahead in it, below while the Texans were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 10:11 Unnecessary Roughness on the Titans (Jeffery Simmons), 7 yardsJudgment calls · 24 flags in 5448 snaps before, position avg 1 per 323 +8% HOU HOU: Turnover on downs
2 Q1 8:24 The Texans were stopped on 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 66% expected +13% TEN HOU: Punt
3 Q2 4:04 The Texans were stopped on 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 41% expected +10% TEN HOU: Punt
4 Q4 13:37 The Titans were stopped on 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 24% expectedThe Titans fumbled and the Texans recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +17% HOU TEN: Punt
5 Q4 1:55 The Titans converted 3rd & 163rd & 4th downs · 17% expected +21% TEN TEN: Touchdown
6 Q4 0:53 The Texans got away with an interception-worthy throwInterceptions · 50% expected to stay out of the defense's hands +29% HOU HOU: Field goal
7 Q4 0:50 The Texans converted 3rd & 163rd & 4th downs · 20% expected +18% HOU HOU: Field goal
8 Q4 0:02 M. Wright made 35-yard field goalKicks · 93% expected for him +17% HOU –

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • L'Jarius Sneed (TEN CB), out (IR) · 0.7 pts
  • Xavier Woods (TEN S), out · 0.4 pts
  • Oluwafemi Oladejo (TEN LB), out (IR) · 0.1 pts
  • C.J. Stroud (HOU QB), out, replaced by d.mills · 5.1 pts
  • Jalen Pitre (HOU S), out · 0.5 pts
  • Ed Ingram (HOU G), out · 0.4 pts
  • Ka'imi Fairbairn (HOU K), out · 0.3 pts
  • M.J. Stewart (HOU S), out (IR) · 0.2 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Texans 89% · Titans 11%

Final margin
Texans by 3
Luck in points
12.2 for the Titans
Luck-adjusted margin
Texans by 15.2
Replay with same day's form
Texans 90% · Titans 10% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 11 2025 games · Texans · Titans

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