luckadjusted

Week 11 2025 · November 17, 2025

Cowboys at Raiders, Week 11 2025: who deserved to win?

The Cowboys beat the Raiders 33–16, and it was no fluke: replayed with the way both teams actually played, the Cowboys win 9 of 10.

Before kickoff the Cowboys were 60% favorites.

Final

Dallas Cowboys 33
Las Vegas Raiders 16

November 17, 2025 · Allegiant Stadium · Closing line: Cowboys −3.5

Luck index +6 Cowboys about even · −6 Raiders

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Cowboys win 9, Raiders win 1.

  1. 1 DAL 41 LV 6
  2. 2 DAL 34 LV 7
  3. 3 DAL 42 LV 20
  4. 4 DAL 31 LV 13
  5. 5 DAL 35 LV 20
  6. 6 DAL 22 LV 9
  7. 7 DAL 16 LV 7
  8. 8 DAL 16 LV 10
  9. 9 DAL 36 LV 34
  10. 10 DAL 24 LV 29

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Cowboys win 94% of them, Raiders 6%. The line is what actually happened: Cowboys by 17.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Cowboys by 17+58.0%
Cowboys by 9–1621.6%
Cowboys by 1–814.4%
Level after regulation0.4%
Raiders by 1–84.1%
Raiders by 9–161.4%
Raiders by 17+0.2%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +2.1 points to the Raiders: the final margin was Cowboys by 17, without the luck Cowboys by 19.1. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • D. Carlson, 35 yds made · 94% expected
  • B. Aubrey, 50 yds made · 85% expected
  • D. Carlson, 45 yds made · 84% expected
  • D. Carlson, 38 yds made · 91% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Cowboys 6 for 50 yards, Raiders 6 for 40 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q2 12:00 Delay of Game on the Raiders, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% LV +0.1 pts
Q2 5:16 False Start on the Cowboys, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% LV 0.0 pts
Q2 2:00 Defensive Pass Interference on the Raiders (Darnay Holmes), 22 yards +5% DAL +1.6 pts
Q2 1:20 Unsportsmanlike Conduct on the Cowboys (George Pickens), 15 yards +1% LV +0.9 pts
Q2 1:20 False Start on the Cowboys, 5 yards · pre-snap +2% LV +0.6 pts
Q2 1:10 Defensive Offside on the Raiders (Charles Snowden), 5 yards · pre-snap +1% DAL +0.4 pts
Q2 0:58 Defensive Holding on the Cowboys (Shavon Revel), 5 yards +1% LV +0.6 pts
Q2 0:19 Defensive Offside on the Cowboys (Jadeveon Clowney), 5 yards · pre-snap +1% LV +0.1 pts
Q3 4:49 False Start on the Raiders, 4 yards · pre-snap 0% DAL +1.0 pts
Q4 11:43 False Start on the Raiders, 1 yard · pre-snap 0% DAL +0.7 pts
Q4 8:52 Unnecessary Roughness on the Cowboys, 15 yards 0% LV +1.4 pts
Q4 2:31 Defensive Too Many Men on Field on the Raiders, 3 yards · pre-snap 0% DAL +0.7 pts

Cowboys penalties, every game · Raiders penalties, every game · All teams, 2025

When it happened

Raiders’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 72%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Raiders were ahead in it, below while the Cowboys were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 9:20 The Cowboys fumbled and the Raiders recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +7% LV DAL: Field goal
2 Q2 12:53 A. Jeanty dropped a catchable passDrops · 1 drops on 28 catchable balls before this +5% DAL LV: Punt
3 Q2 9:50 The Cowboys converted 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 53% expected +6% DAL DAL: Touchdown
4 Q2 5:19 The Cowboys converted 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 68% expected +8% DAL DAL: Touchdown
5 Q2 4:17 The Raiders converted 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 25% expected +6% LV LV: Turnover
6 Q2 2:35 The Raiders were intercepted on a well-placed throwInterceptions · 0% expected to stay out of the defense's hands +7% DAL LV: Field goal
7 Q2 2:24 The Cowboys got away with an interception-worthy throwInterceptions · 48% expected to stay out of the defense's hands +5% DAL DAL: Touchdown
8 Q2 2:00 Defensive Pass Interference on the Raiders (Darnay Holmes), 22 yardsJudgment calls · 21 flags in 2285 snaps before, position avg 1 per 213 +5% DAL DAL: Touchdown

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Kolton Miller (LV T), out (IR) · 0.9 pts
  • Jackson Powers-Johnson (LV G), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
  • Trevon Diggs (DAL CB), out (IR) · 1.1 pts
  • Juanyeh Thomas (DAL S), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Jack Sanborn (DAL LB), out (IR) · 0.2 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Cowboys 100% · Raiders 0%

Final margin
Cowboys by 17
Luck in points
2.1 for the Raiders
Luck-adjusted margin
Cowboys by 19.1
Replay with same day's form
Cowboys 94% · Raiders 6% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 11 2025 games · Cowboys · Raiders

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