luckadjusted

Week 11 2025 · November 13, 2025

Jets at Patriots, Week 11 2025: who deserved to win?

The Patriots beat the Jets 27–14, and it was no fluke: replayed with the way both teams actually played, the Patriots win 10 of 10.

Before kickoff the Patriots were 82% favorites. The biggest swing (Q1, 11:40 left): the Jets converted 3rd & 4, worth 9 points of win probability to the Jets.

Final

New York Jets 14
New England Patriots 27

November 13, 2025 · Gillette Stadium · Closing line: Patriots −12.5

Luck index +3 Patriots about even · −3 Jets

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Jets win 0, Patriots win 10.

  1. 1 NYJ 21 NE 24
  2. 2 NYJ 13 NE 19
  3. 3 NYJ 17 NE 26
  4. 4 NYJ 10 NE 22
  5. 5 NYJ 10 NE 24
  6. 6 NYJ 19 NE 36
  7. 7 NYJ 17 NE 36
  8. 8 NYJ 13 NE 34
  9. 9 NYJ 10 NE 36
  10. 10 NYJ 0 NE 33

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Jets win 3% of them, Patriots 97%, counting the 1% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Patriots by 13.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Jets by 17+0.1%
Jets by 9–160.6%
Jets by 1–82.4%
Level after regulation0.9%
Patriots by 1–814.4%
Patriots by 9–1619.6%
Patriots by 17+62.0%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +4.6 points to the Patriots: the final margin was Patriots by 13, without the luck Patriots by 8.4. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • A. Borregales, 45 yds missed · 77% expected
  • A. Borregales, 44 yds made · 77% expected
  • A. Borregales, 26 yds made · 97% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Jets 7 for 62 yards, Patriots 2 for 20 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 6:12 Unnecessary Roughness on the Jets (Jarvis Brownlee), 15 yards +6% NE +1.1 pts
Q2 3:31 Offensive Holding on the Jets (Dean Clark), 7 yards +2% NE +0.6 pts
Q2 1:48 Defensive Too Many Men on Field on the Jets, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% NE +0.5 pts
Q2 1:16 Offensive Holding on the Patriots, 10 yards +2% NYJ +0.9 pts
Q2 0:34 Illegal Contact on the Jets (Brandon Stephens), 5 yards, wiping out the play +4% NE +1.5 pts
Q3 12:23 Intentional Grounding on the Jets (Justin Fields), 10 yards +2% NE +0.9 pts
Q3 11:36 Unnecessary Roughness on the Jets, 15 yards +1% NE +1.4 pts
Q3 3:06 Offensive Holding on the Patriots (Jack Westover), 10 yards, wiping out the play +5% NYJ +2.2 pts
Q4 14:24 Defensive Holding on the Jets (Jarvis Brownlee), 5 yards +2% NE +0.3 pts

Jets penalties, every game · Patriots penalties, every game · All teams, 2025

When it happened

Patriots’ chance of winning

As low as 38% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Patriots were ahead in it, below while the Jets were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 11:40 The Jets converted 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 41% expected +9% NYJ NYJ: Touchdown
2 Q1 8:20 The Jets converted 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 33% expected +8% NYJ NYJ: Touchdown
3 Q1 3:56 The Patriots converted 4th & 23rd & 4th downs · 61% expected +8% NE NE: Touchdown
4 Q2 6:21 The Jets were stopped on 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 42% expectedA. Mitchell dropped a catchable passDrops · 2 drops on 38 catchable balls before this +8% NE NYJ: Punt
5 Q2 3:36 The Patriots were stopped on 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 33% expectedS. Diggs dropped a catchable passDrops · 12 drops on 367 catchable balls before this +7% NYJ NE: Punt
6 Q2 0:03 A. Borregales missed 45-yard field goalKicks · 77% expected for him, 2 of 2 from 45+ before +7% NYJ NE: Punt
7 Q3 3:17 The Jets converted 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 33% expected +7% NYJ NYJ: Touchdown
8 Q3 2:04 The Patriots converted 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 29% expected +6% NE NE: Field goal

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Austin Hooper (NE TE), out · 0.6 pts
  • Kayshon Boutte (NE WR), out · 0.4 pts
  • Rhamondre Stevenson (NE RB), out · 0.3 pts
  • Christian Elliss (NE LB), out · 0.2 pts
  • Garrett Wilson (NYJ WR), out (IR) · 1.0 pts
  • Josh Reynolds (NYJ WR), out (IR) · 0.5 pts
  • Andre Cisco (NYJ S), out (IR) · 0.5 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Jets 7% · Patriots 93%

Final margin
Patriots by 13
Luck in points
4.6 for the Patriots
Luck-adjusted margin
Patriots by 8.4
Replay with same day's form
Jets 3% · Patriots 97% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 11 2025 games · Jets · Patriots

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