luckadjusted

Week 11 2025 · November 16, 2025

Panthers at Falcons, Week 11 2025: who deserved to win?

The Panthers beat the Falcons 30–27, but it was a coin flip: replayed with the way both teams played, the Panthers win 6 of 10. Luck ran their way: 3rd & 4th downs alone were worth 13 points of win probability to the Panthers.

Before kickoff the Falcons were 63% favorites. The biggest swing (Q4, 1:15 left): the Panthers converted 3rd & 12, worth 19 points of win probability to the Panthers.

Final (OT)

Carolina Panthers 30
Atlanta Falcons 27

November 16, 2025 · Mercedes-Benz Stadium · Closing line: Falcons −4.5

Luck index +41 Panthers lucky · −41 Falcons

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Panthers win 6, Falcons win 4.

  1. 1 CAR 30 ATL 6
  2. 2 CAR 39 ATL 23
  3. 3 CAR 27 ATL 14
  4. 4 CAR 23 ATL 14
  5. 5 CAR 17 ATL 12
  6. 6 CAR 27 ATL 24
  7. 7 CAR 17 ATL 20
  8. 8 CAR 34 ATL 41
  9. 9 CAR 21 ATL 33
  10. 10 CAR 21 ATL 40

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Panthers win 59% of them, Falcons 41%, counting the 2% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Panthers by 3.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Panthers by 17+16.3%
Panthers by 9–1616.9%
Panthers by 1–824.6%
Level after regulation2.5%
Falcons by 1–818.7%
Falcons by 9–1613.1%
Falcons by 17+8.0%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +3.4 points to the Falcons: the final margin was Panthers by 3, without the luck Panthers by 6.4. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • R. Fitzgerald, 29 yds made · 97% expected
  • R. Fitzgerald, 34 yds made · 94% expected
  • Z. Gonzalez, 52 yds made · 70% expected
  • Z. Gonzalez, 45 yds made · 82% expected
  • R. Fitzgerald, 28 yds made · 98% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Panthers 8 for 49 yards, Falcons 6 for 44 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 14:55 Offensive Holding on the Falcons, 10 yards +3% CAR +1.4 pts
Q1 5:57 Defensive Offside on the Falcons (James Pearce), 5 yards · pre-snap 0% ATL +0.4 pts
Q2 12:13 Defensive Holding on the Panthers (Bobby Brown), 5 yards +2% ATL +1.2 pts
Q2 10:59 Offensive Holding on the Falcons (Kyle Pitts), 10 yards +5% CAR +1.7 pts
Q2 7:52 Offensive Holding on the Panthers, 10 yards +3% ATL +1.4 pts
Q2 7:18 False Start on the Panthers (Xavier Legette), 5 yards · pre-snap +1% ATL +0.5 pts
Q2 3:16 False Start on the Falcons, 5 yards · pre-snap +4% CAR +0.8 pts
Q2 2:09 Illegal Use of Hands on the Panthers (Tre'von Moehrig), 5 yards +1% ATL +0.5 pts
Q2 1:52 Defensive Holding on the Panthers (Jaycee Horn), 1 yard 0% ATL +0.2 pts
Q3 11:24 Offensive Holding on the Panthers (Jalen Coker), 10 yards +7% ATL +1.5 pts
Q3 5:56 Offensive Holding on the Falcons, 9 yards +4% CAR +1.7 pts
Q3 5:20 Neutral Zone Infraction on the Panthers (Israel Mukuamu), 5 yards · pre-snap +1% ATL +0.5 pts
Q4 9:05 Defensive Pass Interference on the Panthers (Jaycee Horn), 8 yards +5% ATL +1.7 pts
QOT 9:28 Ineligible Downfield Pass on the Falcons, 5 yards, wiping out the play +14% CAR +1.7 pts

Panthers penalties, every game · Falcons penalties, every game · All teams, 2025

When it happened

Falcons’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 87%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Falcons were ahead in it, below while the Panthers were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 9:23 The Panthers converted 4th & 23rd & 4th downs · 61% expected +14% CAR CAR: Touchdown
2 Q3 8:15 The Panthers were stopped on 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 67% expected +12% ATL CAR: Field goal
3 Q4 3:05 The Panthers were stopped on 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 74% expected +16% ATL CAR: Touchdown
4 Q4 2:00 The Panthers were stopped on 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 46% expectedC. Hubbard dropped a catchable passDrops · 5 drops on 124 catchable balls before this +12% ATL CAR: Touchdown
5 Q4 1:15 The Panthers converted 3rd & 123rd & 4th downs · 25% expected +19% CAR CAR: Touchdown
6 Q4 0:26 The Falcons were stopped on 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 47% expected +15% CAR ATL: Field goal
7 Q4 0:21 Z. Gonzalez made 45-yard field goalKicks · 82% expected for him, 29 of 40 from 45+ before +19% ATL ATL: Punt
8 QOT 9:28 Ineligible Downfield Pass on the Falcons, 5 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls +14% CAR CAR: Field goal

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Leonard Floyd (ATL DE), out · 0.6 pts
  • Matthew Bergeron (ATL OL), out · 0.5 pts
  • Divine Deablo (ATL LB), out (IR) · 0.5 pts
  • Mike Hughes (ATL CB), out · 0.4 pts
  • Zach Harrison (ATL DL), out · 0.2 pts
  • Trevin Wallace (CAR LB), out · 0.3 pts
  • Brady Christensen (CAR OL), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Patrick Jones II (CAR LB), out (IR) · 0.1 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Panthers 87% · Falcons 13%

Final margin
Panthers by 3
Luck in points
3.4 for the Falcons
Luck-adjusted margin
Panthers by 6.4
Replay with same day's form
Panthers 59% · Falcons 41% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 11 2025 games · Panthers · Falcons

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