luckadjusted

Week 11 2025 · November 16, 2025

Ravens at Browns, Week 11 2025: who deserved to win?

The Ravens beat the Browns 23–16, and it was no fluke: replayed with the way both teams actually played, the Ravens win 10 of 10. The Browns had the bounces: fumble bounces alone were worth 10 points of win probability to the Browns.

Before kickoff the Ravens were 71% favorites. The biggest swing (Q4, 2:39 left): the Ravens converted 4th & 1, worth 36 points of win probability to the Ravens.

Final

Baltimore Ravens 23
Cleveland Browns 16

November 16, 2025 · FirstEnergy Stadium · Closing line: Ravens −7.5

Luck index +1 Ravens about even · −1 Browns

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Ravens win 10, Browns win 0.

  1. 1 BAL 43 CLE 6
  2. 2 BAL 40 CLE 9
  3. 3 BAL 33 CLE 6
  4. 4 BAL 33 CLE 9
  5. 5 BAL 34 CLE 13
  6. 6 BAL 29 CLE 10
  7. 7 BAL 18 CLE 3
  8. 8 BAL 29 CLE 17
  9. 9 BAL 25 CLE 17
  10. 10 BAL 6 CLE 3

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Ravens win 99% of them, Browns 1%. The line is what actually happened: Ravens by 7.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Ravens by 17+87.5%
Ravens by 9–169.7%
Ravens by 1–82.1%
Level after regulation0.1%
Browns by 1–80.5%
Browns by 9–160.0%
Browns by 17+0.0%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +1.0 points to the Browns: the final margin was Ravens by 7, without the luck Ravens by 8. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • T. Loop, 25 yds made · 98% expected
  • A. Szmyt, 30 yds made · 95% expected
  • A. Szmyt, 24 yds made · 98% expected
  • A. Szmyt, 46 yds made · 71% expected
  • T. Loop, 24 yds made · 98% expected
  • T. Loop, 44 yds made · 76% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Ravens 4 for 26 yards, Browns 5 for 41 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 13:06 Illegal Formation on the Browns, 4 yards · pre-snap +2% BAL +0.9 pts
Q2 4:45 Neutral Zone Infraction on the Browns (Maliek Collins), 2 yards · pre-snap +1% BAL +0.7 pts
Q2 2:00 Defensive Offside on the Ravens (Jake Hummel), 5 yards · pre-snap +7% CLE +2.6 pts
Q3 12:04 Offensive Holding on the Browns, 10 yards +3% BAL +1.6 pts
Q3 6:27 Offensive Holding on the Ravens (Derrick Henry), 11 yards, wiping out the play +11% CLE +2.0 pts
Q3 5:13 Delay of Game on the Ravens, 5 yards · pre-snap +4% CLE +0.4 pts
Q3 4:28 Defensive Delay of Game on the Ravens (Kyle Hamilton), 5 yards · pre-snap +2% CLE +0.4 pts
Q4 4:59 Offensive Holding on the Browns (Jerome Baker), 10 yards +9% BAL +0.9 pts
Q4 4:45 Intentional Grounding on the Browns (Shedeur Sanders), 15 yards +10% BAL +1.4 pts

Ravens penalties, every game · Browns penalties, every game · All teams, 2025

When it happened

Browns’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 81%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Browns were ahead in it, below while the Ravens were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q2 10:26 The Ravens fumbled and the Browns recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +10% CLE BAL: Opp touchdown
2 Q2 7:53 The Ravens were intercepted on a well-placed throwInterceptions · 0% expected to stay out of the defense's handsReturn touchdown by the BrownsSpecial teams +23% CLE BAL: Touchdown
3 Q3 6:27 Offensive Holding on the Ravens (Derrick Henry), 11 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls · 8 flags in 4128 snaps before, position avg 1 per 829 +11% CLE CLE: Turnover
4 Q3 4:44 The Browns were stopped on 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 24% expectedThe Browns threw an interception-worthy pass, and it was pickedInterceptions · 47% expected to stay out of the defense's hands +18% BAL CLE: Punt
5 Q3 4:37 The Ravens were intercepted on a well-placed throwInterceptions · 0% expected to stay out of the defense's hands +11% CLE BAL: Field goal
6 Q4 8:40 The Ravens converted 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 26% expected +14% BAL BAL: Field goal
7 Q4 4:45 The Browns were stopped on 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 24% expectedIntentional Grounding on the Browns (Shedeur Sanders), 15 yardsJudgment calls · no snap history yet +20% BAL CLE: Punt
8 Q4 2:39 The Ravens converted 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 72% expected +36% BAL BAL: Touchdown

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Cornelius Lucas (CLE T), out · 0.6 pts
  • Marlon Humphrey (BAL CB), out · 1.1 pts
  • Rashod Bateman (BAL WR), out · 0.4 pts
  • Tavius Robinson (BAL LB), out (IR) · 0.2 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Ravens 89% · Browns 11%

Final margin
Ravens by 7
Luck in points
1.0 for the Browns
Luck-adjusted margin
Ravens by 8.0
Replay with same day's form
Ravens 99% · Browns 1% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 11 2025 games · Ravens · Browns

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