Week 1 2025 · September 8, 2025
Vikings at Bears, Week 1 2025: who deserved to win?
The Vikings beat the Bears 27–24, and it was no fluke: replayed with the way both teams actually played, the Vikings win 9 of 10.
An off day for the Bears: their offense played far below its usual level. In a fresh game against the Vikings they would win 49% of the time; with this day’s form, 8%. The numbers
Before kickoff the Vikings were 54% favorites. The biggest swing (Q3, 13:03 left): Return touchdown by the Bears, worth 48 points of win probability to the Bears.
Final
 Minnesota Vikings | 27 |
|---|---|
 Chicago Bears | 24 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +8 Vikings about even · −8 Bears
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Vikings win 9, Bears win 1.
- 1 MIN 40 CHI 6
- 2 MIN 41 CHI 14
- 3 MIN 47 CHI 24
- 4 MIN 21 CHI 3
- 5 MIN 29 CHI 13
- 6 MIN 37 CHI 24
- 7 MIN 26 CHI 17
- 8 MIN 16 CHI 10
- 9 MIN 29 CHI 26
- 10 MIN 21 CHI 27
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
An off day for the Bears
Their offense played far below its usual level. In a fresh game against the Vikings they would win 49% of the time; with this day’s form, 8%.
Same teams, fresh game
Replay with same day's form
42 points apart for the Bears: the gap is how differently this game went from what the two teams usually are.
| Unit | This game | Usual level | Better or worse than usual |
|---|---|---|---|
| Vikings offenseEPA per play gained | +0.01 | +0.13 | worse by 0.12 |
| Vikings defenseEPA per play allowed | −0.09 | +0.07 | better by 0.16 |
| Bears offenseEPA per play gained | −0.09 | +0.01 | worse by 0.11 |
| Bears defenseEPA per play allowed | +0.01 | +0.12 | better by 0.11 |
EPA (expected points added) per play on competitive snaps, turnovers left out because they are valued as luck. Usual level: the team’s earlier games this season plus half of last season, pulled toward the league average. One team’s defense and the other team’s offense are the same snaps, so one game can’t fully say whose day it was; it shows how far this one was from both teams’ norms.
How 4,000 replays ended
Vikings win 92% of them, Bears 8%, counting the 1% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Vikings by 3.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Vikings by 17+ | 61.2% |
| Vikings by 9–16 | 19.7% |
| Vikings by 1–8 | 11.5% |
| Level after regulation | 0.6% |
| Bears by 1–8 | 5.0% |
| Bears by 9–16 | 1.8% |
| Bears by 17+ | 0.2% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.
- W. Reichard, 31 yds made · 95% expected
- C. Santos, 42 yds made · 85% expected
- W. Reichard, 59 yds made · 57% expected
- C. Santos, 50 yds missed · 73% expected
Penalties: Vikings 8 for 50 yards, Bears 12 for 127 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 2:40 | False Start on the Bears, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% MIN +0.6 pts |
| Q2 15:00 | Defensive Pass Interference on the Bears (Nahshon Wright), 42 yards | +7% MIN +2.3 pts |
| Q2 12:48 | Illegal Formation on the Vikings (Jay Ward), 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% CHI +0.3 pts |
| Q2 11:10 | False Start on the Bears (D.J. Moore), 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% CHI +0.6 pts |
| Q2 9:59 | False Start on the Bears, 5 yards · pre-snap | +2% MIN +0.6 pts |
| Q2 5:52 | Offensive Holding on the Vikings, 10 yards, wiping out the play | +7% CHI +1.8 pts |
| Q2 5:15 | Delay of Game on the Vikings, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% CHI +0.3 pts |
| Q2 3:43 | False Start on the Bears, 5 yards · pre-snap | +2% MIN +0.4 pts |
| Q3 14:28 | Roughing the Passer on the Bears (Dayo Odeyingbo), 15 yards | +6% MIN +0.7 pts |
| Q3 11:17 | Delay of Game on the Vikings, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% CHI +0.4 pts |
| Q3 10:18 | Offensive Holding on the Bears (Carl Jones), 10 yards | +2% MIN +0.9 pts |
| Q3 1:49 | Neutral Zone Infraction on the Vikings (Javon Hargrave), 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% CHI +0.5 pts |
| Q3 0:49 | Offensive Holding on the Bears, 10 yards, wiping out the play | +3% MIN +2.5 pts |
| Q3 0:15 | Intentional Grounding on the Bears (Caleb Williams), 10 yards | +1% MIN +1.0 pts |
| Q4 12:13 | Illegal Use of Hands on the Bears (Dayo Odeyingbo), 1 yard | 0% MIN 0.0 pts |
| Q4 9:57 | Defensive Pass Interference on the Bears (Tyrique Stevenson), 14 yards | +11% MIN +1.2 pts |
| Q4 2:21 | Illegal Contact on the Vikings (Byron Murphy), 5 yards | +1% CHI +1.2 pts |
| Q4 2:16 | Roughing the Passer on the Vikings (Ivan Pace), 15 yards | +1% CHI +1.1 pts |
| Q4 2:12 | Illegal Contact on the Vikings (Byron Murphy), 0 yards | 0% CHI +0.4 pts |
| Q4 0:09 | Illegal Shift on the Bears, 5 yards, wiping out the play · pre-snap | +7% CHI +2.0 pts |
Vikings penalties, every game · Bears penalties, every game · All teams, 2025
When it happened
Bears’ chance of winning
As low as 0% and as high as 95%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q2 12:56 | The Vikings were stopped on 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 31% expectedJ. Jefferson dropped a catchable passDrops · 13 drops on 349 catchable balls before this | +9% CHI | MIN: Field goal |
| 2 | Q2 8:59 | The Bears were stopped on 4th & 33rd & 4th downs · 50% expected | +7% MIN | CHI: Punt |
| 3 | Q2 5:52 | Offensive Holding on the Vikings, 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls | +7% CHI | CHI: Field goal |
| 4 | Q3 13:03 | The Vikings were stopped on 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 31% expectedThe Vikings threw an interception-worthy pass, and it was pickedInterceptions · 49% expected to stay out of the defense's handsReturn touchdown by the BearsSpecial teams | +48% CHI | MIN: Punt |
| 5 | Q4 9:57 | Defensive Pass Interference on the Bears (Tyrique Stevenson), 14 yardsJudgment calls · 9 flags in 1874 snaps before, position avg 1 per 244 | +11% MIN | MIN: Touchdown |
| 6 | Q4 9:46 | The Vikings’ two-point try was good3rd & 4th downs · 47% expected | +7% MIN | MIN: Touchdown |
| 7 | Q4 7:48 | R. Odunze dropped a catchable passDrops · 2 drops on 63 catchable balls before this | +9% MIN | CHI: Punt |
| 8 | Q4 2:59 | The Vikings converted 3rd & 13rd & 4th downs · 73% expected | +9% MIN | MIN: Touchdown |
Missing players
Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.
- Jaylon Johnson (CHI CB), out · 0.9 pts
- Kyler Gordon (CHI CB), out · 0.5 pts
- T.J. Edwards (CHI LB), out · 0.3 pts
- Kiran Amegadjie (CHI T), out · 0.2 pts
- Jordan Addison (MIN WR), out (IR) · 0.9 pts
- Harrison Smith (MIN SS), out · 0.6 pts
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Vikings 18% · Bears 82%
- Final margin
- Vikings by 3
- Luck in points
- 9.6 for the Vikings
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Bears by 6.6
- Replay with same day's form
- Vikings 92% · Bears 8% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.
Methodology and validation · All Week 1 2025 games · 
Vikings · 
Bears
More from Week 1 2025
- Cowboys at Eagles PHI 24–20 · replay 67% for the winner
- Chiefs vs Chargers LAC 27–21 · replay 86% for the winner
- Cardinals at Saints ARI 20–13 · replay 60% for the winner
- Panthers at Jaguars JAX 26–10 · replay 66% for the winner
- Bengals at Browns CIN 17–16 · replay 58% for the winner
- Raiders at Patriots LV 20–13 · replay 90% for the winner
- Dolphins at Colts IND 33–8 · replay 94% for the winner
- Giants at Commanders WAS 21–6 · replay 99% for the winner
- Steelers at Jets PIT 34–32 · replay 12% for the winner
- Buccaneers at Falcons TB 23–20 · replay 65% for the winner
- 49ers at Seahawks SF 17–13 · replay 68% for the winner
- Titans at Broncos DEN 20–12 · replay 94% for the winner
- Lions at Packers GB 27–13 · replay 75% for the winner
- Texans at Rams LA 14–9 · replay 58% for the winner
- Ravens at Bills BUF 41–40 · replay 65% for the winner