luckadjusted

Week 5 2025 · October 5, 2025

Cowboys at Jets, Week 5 2025: who deserved to win?

The Cowboys beat the Jets 37–22, and it was no fluke: replayed with the way both teams actually played, the Cowboys win 9 of 10. The Jets had the bounces: injuries alone were worth 11 points of win probability to the Jets.

An off day for the Jets: their offense and defense both played far below their usual level. In a fresh game against the Cowboys they would win 39% of the time; with this day’s form, 8%. The numbers

Before kickoff the Jets were 54% favorites. The biggest swing (Q1, 6:34 left): the Cowboys converted 3rd & 5, worth 14 points of win probability to the Cowboys.

Final

Dallas Cowboys 37
New York Jets 22

October 5, 2025 · MetLife Stadium · Closing line: Jets −1.5

Luck index +8 Cowboys about even · −8 Jets

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Cowboys win 9, Jets win 1.

  1. 1 DAL 48 NYJ 13
  2. 2 DAL 47 NYJ 20
  3. 3 DAL 45 NYJ 23
  4. 4 DAL 35 NYJ 17
  5. 5 DAL 29 NYJ 14
  6. 6 DAL 26 NYJ 13
  7. 7 DAL 27 NYJ 17
  8. 8 DAL 34 NYJ 27
  9. 9 DAL 30 NYJ 27
  10. 10 DAL 27 NYJ 33

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

An off day for the Jets

Their offense and defense both played far below their usual level. In a fresh game against the Cowboys they would win 39% of the time; with this day’s form, 8%.

31 points apart for the Jets: the gap is how differently this game went from what the two teams usually are.

UnitThis gameUsual levelBetter or worse than usual
Cowboys offenseEPA per play gained +0.63 +0.11 better by 0.53
Cowboys defenseEPA per play allowed −0.09 +0.19 better by 0.27
Jets offenseEPA per play gained −0.09 +0.08 worse by 0.16
Jets defenseEPA per play allowed +0.63 +0.11 worse by 0.52

EPA (expected points added) per play on competitive snaps, turnovers left out because they are valued as luck. Usual level: the team’s earlier games this season plus half of last season, pulled toward the league average. One team’s defense and the other team’s offense are the same snaps, so one game can’t fully say whose day it was; it shows how far this one was from both teams’ norms.

How 4,000 replays ended

Cowboys win 92% of them, Jets 8%, counting the 1% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Cowboys by 15.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Cowboys by 17+56.6%
Cowboys by 9–1620.4%
Cowboys by 1–814.5%
Level after regulation0.8%
Jets by 1–85.0%
Jets by 9–162.1%
Jets by 17+0.6%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +6.6 points to the Jets: the final margin was Cowboys by 15, without the luck Cowboys by 21.6. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • N. Folk, 25 yds made · 100% expected
  • B. Aubrey, 35 yds made · 95% expected
  • N. Folk, 48 yds made · 82% expected
  • Extra point missed · 70% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Cowboys 11 for 91 yards, Jets 10 for 61 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 10:25 Defensive Too Many Men on Field on the Cowboys, 4 yards · pre-snap +4% NYJ +0.8 pts
Q1 8:54 Defensive Offside on the Cowboys (Sam Williams), 3 yards · pre-snap 0% NYJ +0.1 pts
Q1 2:50 Neutral Zone Infraction on the Jets (Quinnen Williams), 5 yards · pre-snap +1% DAL +0.5 pts
Q2 11:40 Defensive Offside on the Jets (Will McDonald), 1 yard · pre-snap 0% DAL +0.1 pts
Q2 11:40 False Start on the Cowboys, 5 yards · pre-snap +2% NYJ 0.0 pts
Q2 11:40 Kickoff Out of Bounds on the Cowboys (Brandon Aubrey), 0 yards · pre-snap 0% NYJ 0.0 pts
Q2 7:15 False Start on the Jets, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% DAL +0.6 pts
Q2 5:31 Offensive Holding on the Jets, 10 yards, wiping out the play +6% DAL +1.9 pts
Q2 5:07 Defensive Offside on the Cowboys (Jadeveon Clowney), 5 yards · pre-snap +2% NYJ +0.3 pts
Q2 4:43 Ineligible Downfield Pass on the Jets, 5 yards +3% DAL +0.7 pts
Q2 2:18 Illegal Shift on the Cowboys (Jalen Moreno-Cropper), 4 yards · pre-snap +4% NYJ +0.7 pts
Q2 1:27 Illegal Contact on the Jets (Malachi Moore), 5 yards +3% DAL +0.9 pts
Q2 0:57 Offensive Holding on the Jets (Mark Robinson), 10 yards +2% DAL +0.7 pts
Q2 0:19 Unsportsmanlike Conduct on the Cowboys, 15 yards +1% NYJ +1.4 pts
Q3 11:00 Offensive Holding on the Cowboys (Jalen Brooks), 10 yards +1% NYJ +1.1 pts
Q3 4:00 Roughing the Passer on the Cowboys (Osa Odighizuwa), 15 yards 0% NYJ +1.9 pts
Q3 2:43 Offensive Holding on the Jets, 10 yards 0% DAL +0.9 pts
Q4 13:47 Unsportsmanlike Conduct on the Cowboys (Trevon Diggs), 15 yards 0% NYJ +1.4 pts
Q4 11:45 False Start on the Jets, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% DAL +0.9 pts
Q4 10:54 False Start on the Jets, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% DAL +0.5 pts
Q4 10:53 Roughing the Passer on the Cowboys (James Houston), 15 yards 0% DAL +0.9 pts

Cowboys penalties, every game · Jets penalties, every game · All teams, 2025

When it happened

Jets’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 69%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Jets were ahead in it, below while the Cowboys were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 13:42 The Jets converted 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 40% expected +6% NYJ NYJ: Field goal
2 Q1 11:49 The Jets converted 3rd & 13rd & 4th downs · 73% expected +10% NYJ NYJ: Field goal
3 Q1 6:34 The Cowboys converted 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 44% expected +14% DAL DAL: Field goal
4 Q1 0:12 The Cowboys converted 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 40% expected +6% DAL DAL: Touchdown
5 Q2 14:20 The Cowboys converted 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 30% expected +10% DAL DAL: Touchdown
6 Q2 6:09 The Jets converted 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 33% expected +5% NYJ NYJ: Turnover
7 Q2 5:31 Offensive Holding on the Jets, 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls +6% DAL DAL: Touchdown
8 Q2 2:27 The Jets fumbled and the Cowboys recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +6% DAL NYJ: Punt

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Quincy Williams (NYJ LB), out (IR) · 0.5 pts
  • Jermaine Johnson II (NYJ LB), out · 0.2 pts
  • Alijah Vera-Tucker (NYJ G), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
  • CeeDee Lamb (DAL WR), out · 1.3 pts
  • Tyler Smith (DAL OL), out · 0.9 pts
  • Tyler Smith (DAL G), out · 0.7 pts
  • Tyler Guyton (DAL T), out · 0.4 pts
  • Cooper Beebe (DAL C), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Malik Hooker (DAL FS), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Malik Hooker (DAL S), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Tyler Booker (DAL G), out · 0.3 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Cowboys 100% · Jets 0%

Final margin
Cowboys by 15
Luck in points
6.6 for the Jets
Luck-adjusted margin
Cowboys by 21.6
Replay with same day's form
Cowboys 92% · Jets 8% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 5 2025 games · Cowboys · Jets

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