Week 5 2025 · October 5, 2025
Dolphins at Panthers, Week 5 2025: who deserved to win?
The Panthers beat the Dolphins 27–24 and were the better team on the day: replayed with the same form, they win 8 of 10.
An off day for the Dolphins: their defense played far below its usual level. In a fresh game against the Panthers they would win 53% of the time; with this day’s form, 21%. The numbers
Before kickoff the Dolphins were 54% favorites. The biggest swing (Q4, 3:31 left): the Panthers converted 4th & 5, worth 28 points of win probability to the Panthers.
Final
 Miami Dolphins | 24 |
|---|---|
 Carolina Panthers | 27 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +21 Panthers about even · −21 Dolphins
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Dolphins win 2, Panthers win 8.
- 1 MIA 31 CAR 19
- 2 MIA 13 CAR 10
- 3 MIA 29 CAR 31
- 4 MIA 24 CAR 27
- 5 MIA 16 CAR 22
- 6 MIA 15 CAR 24
- 7 MIA 19 CAR 31
- 8 MIA 13 CAR 29
- 9 MIA 17 CAR 37
- 10 MIA 0 CAR 30
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
An off day for the Dolphins
Their defense played far below its usual level. In a fresh game against the Panthers they would win 53% of the time; with this day’s form, 21%.
Same teams, fresh game
Replay with same day's form
32 points apart for the Dolphins: the gap is how differently this game went from what the two teams usually are.
| Unit | This game | Usual level | Better or worse than usual |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dolphins offenseEPA per play gained | +0.10 | +0.09 | better by 0.00 |
| Dolphins defenseEPA per play allowed | +0.32 | +0.12 | worse by 0.20 |
| Panthers offenseEPA per play gained | +0.32 | +0.06 | better by 0.26 |
| Panthers defenseEPA per play allowed | +0.10 | +0.18 | better by 0.08 |
EPA (expected points added) per play on competitive snaps, turnovers left out because they are valued as luck. Usual level: the team’s earlier games this season plus half of last season, pulled toward the league average. One team’s defense and the other team’s offense are the same snaps, so one game can’t fully say whose day it was; it shows how far this one was from both teams’ norms.
How 4,000 replays ended
Dolphins win 21% of them, Panthers 79%, counting the 2% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Panthers by 3.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Dolphins by 17+ | 2.2% |
| Dolphins by 9–16 | 5.4% |
| Dolphins by 1–8 | 11.8% |
| Level after regulation | 2.1% |
| Panthers by 1–8 | 27.6% |
| Panthers by 9–16 | 21.1% |
| Panthers by 17+ | 29.7% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.
- R. Patterson, 43 yds made · 82% expected
- R. Fitzgerald, 35 yds made · 92% expected
- R. Fitzgerald, 49 yds made · 72% expected
Penalties: Dolphins 9 for 64 yards, Panthers 8 for 46 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 7:35 | Defensive Holding on the Dolphins (Jack Jones), 5 yards, wiping out the play | +2% MIA +0.4 pts |
| Q2 14:01 | Defensive Offside on the Panthers (Derrick Brown), 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% MIA +0.2 pts |
| Q2 10:07 | False Start on the Panthers (Xavier Legette), 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% MIA +0.6 pts |
| Q2 0:58 | Illegal Formation on the Panthers, 5 yards · pre-snap | +2% MIA +0.6 pts |
| Q2 0:28 | False Start on the Panthers (Tommy Tremble), 6 yards · pre-snap | +2% MIA +0.5 pts |
| Q2 0:07 | False Start on the Panthers, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% MIA +0.2 pts |
| Q3 14:01 | Delay of Game on the Panthers, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% MIA +0.6 pts |
| Q3 11:26 | Offensive Holding on the Dolphins, 10 yards, wiping out the play | +9% CAR +2.5 pts |
| Q3 7:24 | Delay of Game on the Panthers, 5 yards · pre-snap | +6% MIA +0.7 pts |
| Q4 13:29 | Illegal Formation on the Dolphins, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% CAR +0.5 pts |
| Q4 10:12 | Illegal Use of Hands on the Dolphins (Matthew Butler), 5 yards | +1% CAR +0.8 pts |
| Q4 7:53 | Hip Drop Tackle on the Dolphins (Chop Robinson), 14 yards | +4% CAR +1.0 pts |
| Q4 7:49 | Defensive Holding on the Dolphins (Jack Jones), 5 yards | +2% CAR +0.3 pts |
| Q4 4:42 | Illegal Formation on the Dolphins (Minkah Fitzpatrick), 5 yards · pre-snap | +4% CAR +0.4 pts |
| Q4 4:36 | Offensive Holding on the Panthers (Thomas Incoom), 10 yards | +1% MIA +0.9 pts |
| Q4 4:31 | Defensive Holding on the Dolphins (Zach Sieler), 5 yards | +3% CAR +1.1 pts |
| Q4 0:55 | Defensive Pass Interference on the Dolphins (Jack Jones), 10 yards | +1% CAR +0.3 pts |
Dolphins penalties, every game · Panthers penalties, every game · All teams, 2025
When it happened
Panthers’ chance of winning
As low as 12% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 11:58 | The Dolphins converted 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 37% expected | +12% MIA | MIA: Field goal |
| 2 | Q1 8:13 | The Panthers converted 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 31% expected | +12% CAR | CAR: Turnover |
| 3 | Q1 6:37 | The Panthers fumbled and the Dolphins recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 | +9% MIA | CAR: Turnover |
| 4 | Q1 3:15 | The Dolphins were stopped on 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 41% expectedD. Achane dropped a catchable passDrops · 2 drops on 130 catchable balls before this | +10% CAR | MIA: Touchdown |
| 5 | Q3 11:26 | Offensive Holding on the Dolphins, 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls | +9% CAR | CAR: Punt |
| 6 | Q4 3:31 | The Panthers converted 4th & 53rd & 4th downs · 40% expected | +28% CAR | CAR: Touchdown |
| 7 | Q4 1:54 | J. Waddle dropped a catchable passDrops · 16 drops on 268 catchable balls before this | +22% CAR | MIA: Punt |
| 8 | Q4 1:46 | The Dolphins were stopped on 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 28% expected | +12% CAR | MIA: Punt |
Missing players
Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.
- Jalen Coker (CAR WR), out (IR) · 0.6 pts
- Ja'Tavion Sanders (CAR TE), out · 0.5 pts
- Robert Hunt (CAR G), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
- Austin Corbett (CAR C), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
- Chuba Hubbard (CAR RB), out · 0.3 pts
- Chau Smith-Wade (CAR CB), out · 0.2 pts
- Tyreek Hill (MIA WR), out (IR) · 1.5 pts
- Kader Kohou (MIA CB), out (IR) · 0.5 pts
- Jason Sanders (MIA K), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Dolphins 80% · Panthers 20%
- Final margin
- Panthers by 3
- Luck in points
- 8.0 for the Panthers
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Dolphins by 5.0
- Replay with same day's form
- Dolphins 21% · Panthers 79% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.
Methodology and validation · All Week 5 2025 games · 
Dolphins · 
Panthers
More from Week 5 2025
- 49ers at Rams SF 26–23 · replay 48% for the winner
- Vikings vs Browns MIN 21–17 · replay 68% for the winner
- Cowboys at Jets DAL 37–22 · replay 92% for the winner
- Broncos at Eagles DEN 21–17 · replay 90% for the winner
- Texans at Ravens HOU 44–10 · replay 65% for the winner
- Raiders at Colts IND 40–6 · replay 72% for the winner
- Giants at Saints NO 26–14 · replay 76% for the winner
- Buccaneers at Seahawks TB 38–35 · replay 34% for the winner
- Titans at Cardinals TEN 22–21 · replay 47% for the winner
- Lions at Bengals DET 37–24 · replay 96% for the winner
- Commanders at Chargers WAS 27–10 · replay 82% for the winner
- Patriots at Bills NE 23–20 · replay 38% for the winner
- Chiefs at Jaguars JAX 31–28 · replay 26% for the winner