luckadjusted

Week 17 2025 · December 28, 2025

Cardinals at Bengals, Week 17 2025: who deserved to win?

The Bengals beat the Cardinals 37–14, and it was no fluke: replayed with the way both teams actually played, the Bengals win 10 of 10.

Before kickoff the Bengals were 70% favorites. The biggest swing (Q1, 12:04 left): the Bengals converted 3rd & 10, worth 12 points of win probability to the Bengals.

Final

Arizona Cardinals 14
Cincinnati Bengals 37

December 28, 2025 · Paycor Stadium · Closing line: Bengals −7

Luck index +4 Bengals about even · −4 Cardinals

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Cardinals win 0, Bengals win 10.

  1. 1 ARI 28 CIN 30
  2. 2 ARI 14 CIN 19
  3. 3 ARI 10 CIN 17
  4. 4 ARI 13 CIN 23
  5. 5 ARI 7 CIN 21
  6. 6 ARI 14 CIN 31
  7. 7 ARI 0 CIN 20
  8. 8 ARI 7 CIN 30
  9. 9 ARI 3 CIN 30
  10. 10 ARI 7 CIN 41

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Cardinals win 4% of them, Bengals 96%, counting the 1% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Bengals by 23.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Cardinals by 17+0.1%
Cardinals by 9–160.5%
Cardinals by 1–82.9%
Level after regulation1.1%
Bengals by 1–814.8%
Bengals by 9–1622.4%
Bengals by 17+58.2%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +5.3 points to the Bengals: the final margin was Bengals by 23, without the luck Bengals by 17.7. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • E. McPherson, 57 yds made · 60% expected
  • Extra point missed · 93% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Cardinals 6 for 51 yards, Bengals 5 for 38 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 6:23 Offensive Holding on the Bengals, 10 yards, wiping out the play +3% ARI +1.7 pts
Q1 6:01 Defensive Offside on the Cardinals (Darius Robinson), 5 yards · pre-snap +1% ARI +0.1 pts
Q1 4:16 Defensive Pass Interference on the Cardinals (Will Johnson), 16 yards +2% CIN +0.8 pts
Q2 12:15 Defensive Offside on the Bengals (B.J. Hill), 5 yards, wiping out the play · pre-snap +1% CIN +0.5 pts
Q2 0:44 Offensive Holding on the Cardinals, 10 yards +1% CIN +0.7 pts
Q2 0:41 False Start on the Cardinals, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% CIN +0.1 pts
Q2 0:25 Offensive Holding on the Bengals (DJ Ivey), 8 yards +1% ARI +0.7 pts
Q3 7:52 Neutral Zone Infraction on the Cardinals (Josh Sweat), 5 yards · pre-snap +1% CIN +1.0 pts
Q3 7:33 Offensive Holding on the Cardinals (Josiah Deguara), 10 yards 0% CIN +0.9 pts
Q3 6:34 Offensive Holding on the Bengals (Daijahn Anthony), 10 yards 0% ARI +0.7 pts
Q3 0:50 Defensive Too Many Men on Field on the Bengals, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% ARI +0.9 pts

Cardinals penalties, every game · Bengals penalties, every game · All teams, 2025

When it happened

Bengals’ chance of winning

Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Bengals were ahead in it, below while the Cardinals were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 14:11 The Bengals converted 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 34% expected +7% CIN CIN: Touchdown
2 Q1 12:04 The Bengals converted 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 30% expected +12% CIN CIN: Touchdown
3 Q1 6:23 Offensive Holding on the Bengals, 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls +3% ARI ARI: Touchdown
4 Q1 0:50 The Bengals were stopped on 3rd & 23rd & 4th downs · 55% expected +2% ARI CIN: Touchdown
5 Q1 0:08 The Bengals converted 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 69% expected +3% CIN CIN: Touchdown
6 Q2 10:59 The Bengals were stopped on 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 37% expected +7% ARI CIN: Punt
7 Q2 3:25 E. McPherson made 57-yard field goalKicks · 60% expected for him, 51 of 71 from 45+ before +5% CIN CIN: Touchdown
8 Q3 12:43 The Bengals converted 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 37% expected +2% CIN CIN: Touchdown

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Cam Taylor-Britt (CIN CB), out (IR) · 0.5 pts
  • Joseph Ossai (CIN DE), out · 0.3 pts
  • Kris Jenkins (CIN DT), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
  • Budda Baker (ARI S), out · 0.9 pts
  • Garrett Williams (ARI CB), out (IR) · 0.6 pts
  • Jonah Williams (ARI OL), out (IR) · 0.5 pts
  • Will Hernandez (ARI OL), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Evan Brown (ARI OL), out · 0.4 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Cardinals 0% · Bengals 100%

Final margin
Bengals by 23
Luck in points
5.3 for the Bengals
Luck-adjusted margin
Bengals by 17.7
Replay with same day's form
Cardinals 4% · Bengals 96% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 17 2025 games · Cardinals · Bengals

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