luckadjusted

Week 18 2025 · January 4, 2026

Dolphins at Patriots, Week 18 2025: who deserved to win?

The Patriots beat the Dolphins 38–10, and it was no fluke: replayed with the way both teams actually played, the Patriots win 10 of 10. The Dolphins had the bounces: kicks alone were worth 18 points of win probability to the Dolphins.

Before kickoff the Patriots were 85% favorites. The biggest swing (Q2, 1:42 left): A. Borregales had a 38-yard field goal blocked, worth 14 points of win probability to the Dolphins.

Final

Miami Dolphins 10
New England Patriots 38

January 4, 2026 · Gillette Stadium · Closing line: Patriots −14

Luck index 0 Patriots about even · 0 Dolphins

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Dolphins win 0, Patriots win 10.

  1. 1 MIA 24 NE 31
  2. 2 MIA 14 NE 27
  3. 3 MIA 12 NE 30
  4. 4 MIA 34 NE 55
  5. 5 MIA 13 NE 38
  6. 6 MIA 17 NE 44
  7. 7 MIA 17 NE 47
  8. 8 MIA 10 NE 44
  9. 9 MIA 10 NE 48
  10. 10 MIA 13 NE 58

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Dolphins win 0% of them, Patriots 100%. The line is what actually happened: Patriots by 28.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Dolphins by 17+0.0%
Dolphins by 9–160.0%
Dolphins by 1–80.1%
Level after regulation0.0%
Patriots by 1–80.6%
Patriots by 9–162.5%
Patriots by 17+96.9%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +6.3 points to the Patriots: the final margin was Patriots by 28, without the luck Patriots by 21.7. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • A. Borregales, 38 yds blocked · 88% expected
  • R. Patterson, 52 yds made · 66% expected
  • A. Borregales, 59 yds made · 52% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Dolphins 7 for 52 yards, Patriots 4 for 52 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 1:56 Face Mask on the Dolphins (Tyrel Dodson), 8 yards +2% NE +1.2 pts
Q2 6:13 False Start on the Patriots (Stefon Diggs), 5 yards · pre-snap +2% MIA +0.7 pts
Q2 5:02 Offensive Holding on the Dolphins, 10 yards, wiping out the play +5% NE +1.8 pts
Q2 2:27 Offensive Holding on the Patriots, 10 yards, wiping out the play +6% MIA +2.2 pts
Q2 2:02 Neutral Zone Infraction on the Dolphins (Bradley Chubb), 5 yards · pre-snap +2% NE +0.4 pts
Q2 1:55 Offensive Pass Interference on the Patriots (Hunter Henry), 10 yards +6% MIA +1.7 pts
Q3 15:00 Defensive Pass Interference on the Patriots (Carlton Davis), 27 yards +4% MIA +1.4 pts
Q3 14:55 False Start on the Dolphins, 5 yards · pre-snap +2% NE +0.8 pts
Q3 0:47 Illegal Touch Kick on the Dolphins, 5 yards 0% NE +0.5 pts
Q4 9:39 Offensive Holding on the Dolphins (Nick Westbrook-Ikhine), 4 yards 0% NE +0.4 pts
Q4 3:14 Roughing the Passer on the Dolphins (Matthew Butler), 15 yards 0% NE +1.6 pts

Dolphins penalties, every game · Patriots penalties, every game · All teams, 2025

When it happened

Patriots’ chance of winning

Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Patriots were ahead in it, below while the Dolphins were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 10:29 The Dolphins converted 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 31% expected +6% MIA MIA: Turnover on downs
2 Q1 5:57 The Dolphins were stopped on 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 60% expected +6% NE MIA: Touchdown
3 Q2 5:04 The Patriots were stopped on 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 76% expected +10% MIA NE: Missed field goal
4 Q2 4:39 The Dolphins fumbled and the Patriots recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +7% NE MIA: Field goal
5 Q2 1:55 Offensive Pass Interference on the Patriots (Hunter Henry), 10 yardsJudgment calls · 22 flags in 5565 snaps before, position avg 1 per 278 +6% MIA MIA: Field goal
6 Q2 1:42 A. Borregales had a 38-yard field goal blockedKicks · 88% expected for him +14% MIA NE: Field goal
7 Q2 0:32 R. Patterson made 52-yard field goalKicks · 66% expected for him, 21 of 27 from 45+ before +7% MIA MIA: Turnover
8 Q3 13:27 The Dolphins converted 3rd & 173rd & 4th downs · 15% expected +10% MIA MIA: Turnover

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Jared Wilson (NE OL), out · 0.4 pts
  • Mack Hollins (NE WR), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Robert Spillane (NE LB), out · 0.3 pts
  • Tua Tagovailoa (MIA QB), out, replaced by q.ewers · 6.7 pts
  • Jaylen Waddle (MIA WR), out · 1.1 pts
  • Minkah Fitzpatrick (MIA S), out · 0.9 pts
  • De'Von Achane (MIA RB), out · 0.6 pts
  • Austin Jackson (MIA OL), out · 0.4 pts
  • Julius Brents (MIA CB), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Chop Robinson (MIA LB), out · 0.1 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Dolphins 0% · Patriots 100%

Final margin
Patriots by 28
Luck in points
6.3 for the Patriots
Luck-adjusted margin
Patriots by 21.7
Replay with same day's form
Dolphins 0% · Patriots 100% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 18 2025 games · Dolphins · Patriots

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