luckadjusted

Week 13 2025 · November 30, 2025

Cardinals at Buccaneers, Week 13 2025: who deserved to win?

The Buccaneers stole one. They beat the Cardinals 20–17, but replayed with the way both teams actually played, the Cardinals win 9 of 10. Luck ran their way: injuries alone were worth 11 points of win probability to the Buccaneers.

The Buccaneers won on an off day: they played far below what the matchup promised. In a fresh game against the Cardinals they would win 63% of the time; with this day’s form, 7%. The numbers

Before kickoff the Buccaneers were 63% favorites. The biggest swing (Q2, 2:35 left): Offensive Pass Interference on the Buccaneers (Tez Johnson), 10 yards, wiping out the play, worth 15 points of win probability to the Cardinals.

Final

Arizona Cardinals 17
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 20

November 30, 2025 · Raymond James Stadium · Closing line: Buccaneers −4.5

Luck index +93 Buccaneers very lucky · −93 Cardinals

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Cardinals win 9, Buccaneers win 1.

  1. 1 ARI 30 TB 0
  2. 2 ARI 24 TB 0
  3. 3 ARI 23 TB 3
  4. 4 ARI 29 TB 12
  5. 5 ARI 28 TB 13
  6. 6 ARI 19 TB 7
  7. 7 ARI 30 TB 21
  8. 8 ARI 27 TB 21
  9. 9 ARI 17 TB 14
  10. 10 ARI 20 TB 27

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

The Buccaneers won on an off day

They played far below what the matchup promised. In a fresh game against the Cardinals they would win 63% of the time; with this day’s form, 7%.

56 points apart for the Buccaneers: the gap is how differently this game went from what the two teams usually are.

UnitThis gameUsual levelBetter or worse than usual
Cardinals offenseEPA per play gained +0.15 +0.09 better by 0.06
Cardinals defenseEPA per play allowed +0.06 +0.10 better by 0.04
Buccaneers offenseEPA per play gained +0.06 +0.14 worse by 0.08
Buccaneers defenseEPA per play allowed +0.15 +0.13 worse by 0.02

EPA (expected points added) per play on competitive snaps, turnovers left out because they are valued as luck. Usual level: the team’s earlier games this season plus half of last season, pulled toward the league average. One team’s defense and the other team’s offense are the same snaps, so one game can’t fully say whose day it was; it shows how far this one was from both teams’ norms.

How 4,000 replays ended

Cardinals win 93% of them, Buccaneers 7%, counting the 1% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Buccaneers by 3.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Cardinals by 17+52.1%
Cardinals by 9–1623.4%
Cardinals by 1–816.1%
Level after regulation1.5%
Buccaneers by 1–85.0%
Buccaneers by 9–161.7%
Buccaneers by 17+0.2%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +1.1 points to the Buccaneers: the final margin was Buccaneers by 3, without the luck Buccaneers by 1.9. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • C. McLaughlin, 25 yds made · 99% expected
  • C. Ryland, 52 yds made · 63% expected
  • C. Ryland, 43 yds missed · 81% expected
  • C. McLaughlin, 57 yds made · 63% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Cardinals 4 for 33 yards, Buccaneers 5 for 40 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 13:28 False Start on the Buccaneers, 5 yards · pre-snap +4% ARI +0.8 pts
Q1 12:21 False Start on the Buccaneers (Payne Durham), 5 yards · pre-snap +1% ARI +0.6 pts
Q1 0:59 Offensive Holding on the Buccaneers, 10 yards, wiping out the play +12% ARI +3.6 pts
Q1 0:27 Neutral Zone Infraction on the Cardinals (Baron Browning), 5 yards · pre-snap +2% TB +0.5 pts
Q2 9:47 Encroachment on the Cardinals (Dante Stills), 5 yards · pre-snap +5% TB +0.8 pts
Q2 2:35 Offensive Pass Interference on the Buccaneers (Tez Johnson), 10 yards, wiping out the play +15% ARI +4.9 pts
Q2 1:52 Offensive Holding on the Buccaneers (Payne Durham), 10 yards, wiping out the play +8% ARI +3.5 pts
Q2 1:31 Intentional Grounding on the Cardinals (Jacoby Brissett), 13 yards +3% TB +1.2 pts
Q3 12:57 Offensive Holding on the Cardinals (Kitan Crawford), 10 yards +1% TB +0.9 pts

Cardinals penalties, every game · Buccaneers penalties, every game · All teams, 2025

When it happened

Buccaneers’ chance of winning

As low as 38% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Buccaneers were ahead in it, below while the Cardinals were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 13:10 The Buccaneers converted 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 30% expected +8% TB TB: Punt
2 Q1 0:59 Offensive Holding on the Buccaneers, 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls +12% ARI ARI: Punt
3 Q2 8:08 The Buccaneers were stopped on 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 28% expectedC. Godwin dropped a catchable passDrops · 9 drops on 285 catchable balls before this +10% ARI TB: Field goal
4 Q2 2:35 Offensive Pass Interference on the Buccaneers (Tez Johnson), 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls · 0 flags in 375 snaps before, position avg 1 per 403 +15% ARI ARI: Field goal
5 Q2 1:52 Offensive Holding on the Buccaneers (Payne Durham), 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls · 3 flags in 1214 snaps before, position avg 1 per 278 +8% ARI ARI: Field goal
6 Q3 7:50 C. Ryland missed 43-yard field goalKicks · 81% expected for him +8% TB ARI: Touchdown
7 Q4 0:58 The Cardinals were stopped on 3rd & 23rd & 4th downs · 62% expected +9% TB ARI: Turnover on downs
8 Q4 0:55 The Cardinals were stopped on 4th & 23rd & 4th downs · 62% expected +10% TB –

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Luke Haggard (TB T), out · 0.5 pts
  • Benjamin Morrison (TB CB), out · 0.2 pts
  • Kyler Murray (ARI QB), out (IR), replaced by j.brissett · 2.6 pts
  • Jonah Williams (ARI OL), out (IR) · 0.6 pts
  • Will Hernandez (ARI OL), out (IR) · 0.5 pts
  • Max Melton (ARI CB), out · 0.4 pts
  • Zay Jones (ARI WR), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Mack Wilson (ARI LB), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Blake Gillikin (ARI P), out (IR) · 0.2 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Cardinals 26% · Buccaneers 74%

Final margin
Buccaneers by 3
Luck in points
1.1 for the Buccaneers
Luck-adjusted margin
Buccaneers by 1.9
Replay with same day's form
Cardinals 93% · Buccaneers 7% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 13 2025 games · Cardinals · Buccaneers

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