luckadjusted

Week 13 2025 · November 30, 2025

Bills at Steelers, Week 13 2025: who deserved to win?

The Bills beat the Steelers 26–7, and it was no fluke: replayed with the way both teams actually played, the Bills win 9 of 10.

Before kickoff the Bills were 59% favorites. The biggest swing (Q3, 14:54 left): Return touchdown by the Bills, worth 37 points of win probability to the Bills.

Final

Buffalo Bills 26
Pittsburgh Steelers 7

November 30, 2025 · Acrisure Stadium · Closing line: Bills −3

Luck index +8 Bills about even · −8 Steelers

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Bills win 9, Steelers win 1.

  1. 1 BUF 40 PIT 10
  2. 2 BUF 34 PIT 10
  3. 3 BUF 20 PIT 0
  4. 4 BUF 15 PIT 0
  5. 5 BUF 12 PIT 0
  6. 6 BUF 16 PIT 7
  7. 7 BUF 17 PIT 10
  8. 8 BUF 14 PIT 10
  9. 9 BUF 17 PIT 14
  10. 10 BUF 3 PIT 7

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Bills win 92% of them, Steelers 8%, counting the 2% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Bills by 19.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Bills by 17+50.6%
Bills by 9–1624.0%
Bills by 1–816.9%
Level after regulation1.7%
Steelers by 1–84.8%
Steelers by 9–161.6%
Steelers by 17+0.4%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +5.8 points to the Bills: the final margin was Bills by 19, without the luck Bills by 13.2. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • M. Prater, 27 yds made · 97% expected
  • M. Prater, 37 yds made · 87% expected
  • Extra point missed · 93% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Bills 7 for 45 yards, Steelers 5 for 67 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 12:18 False Start on the Bills, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% PIT +0.6 pts
Q1 4:22 False Start on the Bills, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% PIT +0.4 pts
Q1 3:27 Delay of Game on the Bills, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% PIT +0.3 pts
Q1 1:48 Offensive Holding on the Bills (Sam Franklin), 10 yards +3% PIT +0.7 pts
Q2 8:12 Unsportsmanlike Conduct on the Steelers (D.K. Metcalf), 15 yards +4% BUF +0.8 pts
Q2 0:55 False Start on the Bills, 5 yards · pre-snap +2% PIT +0.3 pts
Q2 0:51 Unnecessary Roughness on the Steelers (Payton Wilson), 12 yards +3% BUF +1.3 pts
Q3 14:44 Offensive Holding on the Steelers (Sebastian Castro), 10 yards +1% BUF +0.9 pts
Q3 13:57 Unsportsmanlike Conduct on the Bills (A.J. Epenesa), 15 yards +4% PIT +1.8 pts
Q3 8:53 Taunting on the Steelers (Cameron Heyward), 15 yards +4% BUF +1.6 pts
Q3 8:49 Kickoff Out of Bounds on the Bills (Matt Prater), 0 yards · pre-snap 0% PIT 0.0 pts
Q4 3:34 Unnecessary Roughness on the Steelers (Esezi Otomewo), 15 yards 0% BUF +2.0 pts

Bills penalties, every game · Steelers penalties, every game · All teams, 2025

When it happened

Steelers’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 75%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Steelers were ahead in it, below while the Bills were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 13:36 The Bills converted 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 33% expected +7% BUF BUF: Turnover
2 Q1 12:56 The Bills fumbled and recovered it themselvesFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +6% BUF BUF: Turnover
3 Q1 11:17 The Bills were stopped on 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 31% expectedThe Bills threw an interception-worthy pass, and it was pickedInterceptions · 49% expected to stay out of the defense's hands +10% PIT BUF: Punt
4 Q2 10:40 The Bills fumbled and the Steelers recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +7% PIT BUF: Field goal
5 Q2 4:28 The Bills converted 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 33% expected +4% BUF BUF: Field goal
6 Q3 14:54 The Steelers fumbled and the Bills recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50Return touchdown by the BillsSpecial teams +37% BUF PIT: Turnover
7 Q3 8:53 The Bills converted 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 68% expectedTaunting on the Steelers (Cameron Heyward), 15 yardsJudgment calls · 15 flags in 6160 snaps before, position avg 1 per 323 +12% BUF BUF: Touchdown
8 Q4 14:16 The Bills converted 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 26% expected +5% BUF BUF: Touchdown

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Broderick Jones (PIT T), out (IR) · 0.8 pts
  • Darius Slay (PIT CB), out · 0.7 pts
  • DeShon Elliott (PIT S), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Derrick Harmon (PIT DT), out · 0.1 pts
  • Dion Dawkins (BUF T), out · 1.3 pts
  • Spencer Brown (BUF T), out · 1.2 pts
  • Taylor Rapp (BUF S), out (IR) · 0.5 pts
  • Terrel Bernard (BUF LB), out · 0.5 pts
  • Josh Palmer (BUF WR), out · 0.4 pts
  • Ed Oliver (BUF DT), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Michael Hoecht (BUF DE), out (IR) · 0.3 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Bills 98% · Steelers 2%

Final margin
Bills by 19
Luck in points
5.8 for the Bills
Luck-adjusted margin
Bills by 13.2
Replay with same day's form
Bills 92% · Steelers 8% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 13 2025 games · Bills · Steelers

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