Week 13 2025 · November 27, 2025
Bengals at Ravens, Week 13 2025: who deserved to win?
The Bengals beat the Ravens 32–14, but it was a coin flip: replayed with the way both teams played, the Bengals win 5 of 10. Luck ran their way: judgment calls alone were worth 35 points of win probability to the Bengals.
Before kickoff the Ravens were 70% favorites. The game turned on a luck play (Q2, 2:00 left): Offensive Pass Interference on the Ravens (Zay Flowers), 10 yards, wiping out the play, worth 20 points of win probability to the Bengals. The biggest single swing (Q1, 3:36 left): the Ravens were stopped on 3rd & 9.
Final
 Cincinnati Bengals | 32 |
|---|---|
 Baltimore Ravens | 14 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +52 Bengals lucky · −52 Ravens
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Bengals win 5, Ravens win 5.
- 1 CIN 30 BAL 6
- 2 CIN 42 BAL 27
- 3 CIN 30 BAL 21
- 4 CIN 21 BAL 16
- 5 CIN 33 BAL 31
- 6 CIN 36 BAL 38
- 7 CIN 20 BAL 27
- 8 CIN 19 BAL 29
- 9 CIN 20 BAL 34
- 10 CIN 10 BAL 34
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 4,000 replays ended
Bengals win 48% of them, Ravens 52%, counting the 5% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Bengals by 18.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Bengals by 17+ | 11.8% |
| Bengals by 9–16 | 14.5% |
| Bengals by 1–8 | 20.2% |
| Level after regulation | 4.7% |
| Ravens by 1–8 | 21.4% |
| Ravens by 9–16 | 15.5% |
| Ravens by 17+ | 11.8% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.
- E. McPherson, 31 yds made · 95% expected
- E. McPherson, 42 yds made · 81% expected
- E. McPherson, 24 yds made · 99% expected
- E. McPherson, 33 yds made · 93% expected
- E. McPherson, 52 yds made · 63% expected
- E. McPherson, 41 yds made · 83% expected
Penalties: Bengals 6 for 35 yards, Ravens 7 for 53 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 12:21 | Defensive Holding on the Ravens, 5 yards | +3% CIN +0.8 pts |
| Q1 1:45 | False Start on the Ravens (Trenton Simpson), 1 yard · pre-snap | 0% CIN +0.3 pts |
| Q1 0:17 | False Start on the Bengals, 5 yards · pre-snap | +3% BAL +0.7 pts |
| Q2 8:22 | Offensive Holding on the Bengals (Noah Fant), 10 yards | +4% BAL +1.0 pts |
| Q2 4:31 | False Start on the Bengals, 5 yards · pre-snap | +2% BAL +0.6 pts |
| Q2 2:00 | Offensive Pass Interference on the Ravens (Zay Flowers), 10 yards, wiping out the play | +20% CIN +5.6 pts |
| Q2 1:15 | False Start on the Bengals, 5 yards · pre-snap | +2% BAL +0.3 pts |
| Q3 9:51 | Defensive Pass Interference on the Ravens (T.J. Tampa), 17 yards | +5% CIN +2.9 pts |
| Q3 0:15 | Offensive Holding on the Ravens, 10 yards, wiping out the play | +5% CIN +1.4 pts |
| Q4 8:43 | Defensive Holding on the Bengals (Jalen Davis), 5 yards | 0% CIN +1.0 pts |
| Q4 8:05 | False Start on the Ravens, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% CIN +0.8 pts |
| Q4 5:41 | Encroachment on the Ravens (Dre'Mont Jones), 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% CIN +0.5 pts |
| Q4 2:43 | Delay of Game on the Bengals, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% BAL +0.5 pts |
Bengals penalties, every game · Ravens penalties, every game · All teams, 2025
When it happened
Ravens’ chance of winning
As low as 0% and as high as 74%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 3:36 | The Ravens were stopped on 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 29% expectedThe Ravens fumbled and the Bengals recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 | +26% CIN | BAL: Punt |
| 2 | Q1 2:35 | The Bengals were stopped on 4th & 23rd & 4th downs · 51% expected | +14% BAL | CIN: Field goal |
| 3 | Q2 15:00 | The Bengals converted 3rd & 113rd & 4th downs · 26% expected | +10% CIN | CIN: Field goal |
| 4 | Q2 2:00 | The game turned hereOffensive Pass Interference on the Ravens (Zay Flowers), 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls · 4 flags in 2422 snaps before, position avg 1 per 403 | +20% CIN | CIN: Punt |
| 5 | Q2 1:46 | The Ravens were stopped on 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 28% expected | +8% CIN | BAL: Punt |
| 6 | Q2 0:36 | The Ravens fumbled and the Bengals recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 | +8% CIN | BAL: End of half |
| 7 | Q3 0:20 | The Bengals converted 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 30% expected | +11% CIN | CIN: Touchdown |
| 8 | Q4 13:04 | The Ravens were stopped on 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 29% expectedThe Ravens were intercepted on a well-placed throwInterceptions · 0% expected to stay out of the defense's hands | +13% CIN | BAL: Turnover on downs |
Missing players
Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.
- Tavius Robinson (BAL LB), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
- Tee Higgins (CIN WR), out · 1.1 pts
- Trey Hendrickson (CIN DE), out · 0.5 pts
- Cam Taylor-Britt (CIN CB), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
- Shemar Stewart (CIN DE), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Bengals 44% · Ravens 56%
- Final margin
- Bengals by 18
- Luck in points
- 17.8 for the Bengals
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Bengals by 0.2
- Replay with same day's form
- Bengals 48% · Ravens 52% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.
Methodology and validation · All Week 13 2025 games · 
Bengals · 
Ravens
More from Week 13 2025
- Packers at Lions GB 31–24 · replay 55% for the winner
- Chiefs at Cowboys DAL 31–28 · replay 61% for the winner
- Bears at Eagles CHI 24–15 · replay 87% for the winner
- Cardinals at Buccaneers TB 20–17 · replay 7% for the winner
- Falcons at Jets NYJ 27–24 · replay 11% for the winner
- Texans at Colts HOU 20–16 · replay 36% for the winner
- Jaguars at Titans JAX 25–3 · replay 98% for the winner
- Rams at Panthers CAR 31–28 · replay 13% for the winner
- Saints at Dolphins MIA 21–17 · replay 70% for the winner
- 49ers at Browns SF 26–8 · replay 95% for the winner
- Vikings at Seahawks SEA 26–0 · replay 97% for the winner
- Bills at Steelers BUF 26–7 · replay 92% for the winner
- Raiders at Chargers LAC 31–14 · replay 90% for the winner
- Broncos at Commanders DEN 27–26 · replay 49% for the winner
- Giants at Patriots NE 33–15 · replay 85% for the winner