luckadjusted

Week 13 2025 · November 28, 2025

Bears at Eagles, Week 13 2025: who deserved to win?

The Bears beat the Eagles 24–15, and it was no fluke: replayed with the way both teams actually played, the Bears win 9 of 10.

An off day for the Eagles: their offense and defense both played far below their usual level. In a fresh game against the Bears they would win 65% of the time; with this day’s form, 14%. The numbers

Before kickoff the Eagles were 70% favorites. The biggest swing (Q3, 4:46 left): the Eagles were stopped on 3rd & 1, worth 31 points of win probability to the Bears.

Final

Chicago Bears 24
Philadelphia Eagles 15

November 28, 2025 · Lincoln Financial Field · Closing line: Eagles −7

Luck index +14 Bears about even · −14 Eagles

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Bears win 9, Eagles win 1.

  1. 1 CHI 41 PHI 10
  2. 2 CHI 37 PHI 13
  3. 3 CHI 40 PHI 20
  4. 4 CHI 27 PHI 10
  5. 5 CHI 37 PHI 23
  6. 6 CHI 25 PHI 14
  7. 7 CHI 22 PHI 14
  8. 8 CHI 19 PHI 14
  9. 9 CHI 26 PHI 24
  10. 10 CHI 16 PHI 24

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

An off day for the Eagles

Their offense and defense both played far below their usual level. In a fresh game against the Bears they would win 65% of the time; with this day’s form, 14%.

52 points apart for the Eagles: the gap is how differently this game went from what the two teams usually are.

UnitThis gameUsual levelBetter or worse than usual
Bears offenseEPA per play gained +0.14 +0.07 better by 0.07
Bears defenseEPA per play allowed −0.05 +0.13 better by 0.17
Eagles offenseEPA per play gained −0.05 +0.12 worse by 0.17
Eagles defenseEPA per play allowed +0.14 +0.03 worse by 0.11

EPA (expected points added) per play on competitive snaps, turnovers left out because they are valued as luck. Usual level: the team’s earlier games this season plus half of last season, pulled toward the league average. One team’s defense and the other team’s offense are the same snaps, so one game can’t fully say whose day it was; it shows how far this one was from both teams’ norms.

How 4,000 replays ended

Bears win 86% of them, Eagles 14%, counting the 1% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Bears by 9.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Bears by 17+42.0%
Bears by 9–1623.8%
Bears by 1–819.4%
Level after regulation1.4%
Eagles by 1–88.6%
Eagles by 9–163.3%
Eagles by 17+1.4%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +7.0 points to the Bears: the final margin was Bears by 9, without the luck Bears by 2. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • J. Elliott, 44 yds made · 77% expected
  • C. Santos, 30 yds made · 96% expected
  • J. Elliott, 52 yds missed · 61% expected
  • Extra point missed · 93% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Bears 4 for 35 yards, Eagles 7 for 44 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 8:53 False Start on the Eagles (A.J. Brown), 5 yards · pre-snap +1% CHI +0.5 pts
Q1 1:01 False Start on the Eagles, 5 yards · pre-snap +4% CHI +1.0 pts
Q2 1:55 Offensive Pass Interference on the Eagles (A.J. Brown), 10 yards, wiping out the play +7% CHI +1.6 pts
Q2 0:18 Offensive Holding on the Bears, 10 yards +2% PHI +0.6 pts
Q3 12:27 False Start on the Bears (Carl Jones), 5 yards · pre-snap 0% PHI +0.4 pts
Q3 9:30 Roughing the Passer on the Bears (Gervon Dexter), 15 yards +4% PHI +2.2 pts
Q3 7:25 Defensive Holding on the Eagles (Nakobe Dean), 5 yards +2% CHI +0.7 pts
Q3 2:41 False Start on the Bears, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% PHI +0.6 pts
Q4 11:22 False Start on the Eagles (Cameron Latu), 5 yards · pre-snap +2% CHI +0.5 pts
Q4 2:00 Encroachment on the Eagles (Jalen Carter), 4 yards · pre-snap 0% CHI +0.2 pts
Q4 1:12 Offensive Holding on the Eagles, 10 yards, wiping out the play +6% CHI +2.5 pts

Bears penalties, every game · Eagles penalties, every game · All teams, 2025

When it happened

Eagles’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 68%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Eagles were ahead in it, below while the Bears were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 9:36 The Bears were stopped on 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 73% expected +10% PHI CHI: Touchdown
2 Q2 15:00 The Eagles converted 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 51% expected +7% PHI PHI: Field goal
3 Q2 13:12 The Eagles were stopped on 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 31% expectedD. Smith dropped a catchable passDrops · 10 drops on 367 catchable balls before this +8% CHI PHI: Field goal
4 Q2 11:31 The Bears converted 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 34% expected +7% CHI CHI: Field goal
5 Q2 2:59 The Eagles fumbled and recovered it themselvesFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +8% PHI PHI: Punt
6 Q3 8:05 The Eagles missed an extra pointKicks · extra points are made about 94% of the time +7% CHI PHI: Turnover
7 Q3 4:46 The Eagles were stopped on 3rd & 13rd & 4th downs · 73% expectedThe Eagles fumbled and the Bears recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +31% CHI PHI: Punt
8 Q3 0:56 The Bears converted 4th & 53rd & 4th downs · 40% expected +10% CHI CHI: Touchdown

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Lane Johnson (PHI T), out · 1.1 pts
  • Andrew Mukuba (PHI S), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Tremaine Edmunds (CHI LB), out (IR) · 0.6 pts
  • Tyrique Stevenson (CHI DB), out · 0.4 pts
  • T.J. Edwards (CHI LB), out · 0.3 pts
  • Dayo Odeyingbo (CHI DL), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Noah Sewell (CHI LB), out · 0.1 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Bears 58% · Eagles 42%

Final margin
Bears by 9
Luck in points
7.0 for the Bears
Luck-adjusted margin
Bears by 2.0
Replay with same day's form
Bears 86% · Eagles 14% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 13 2025 games · Bears · Eagles

More from Week 13 2025