2026 season · in progress
Washington Commanders, 2026: game by game
The Commanders went 0–2 so far in 2026; replayed with the same day’s form, their play was worth 0.8 wins. Luck cost them 0.8: the 2nd-unluckiest team in the league. In one-score games they went 0–1.
Every game
How often the Commanders win each game when it’s replayed with the way both teams played, and the luck index: 100 × (the result − that number).
Game by game
The luck index of each game, in order. Right: luckier than the play. Left: unluckier.
Where the luck came from
Luck over the regular season by kind, in wins: every lucky or unlucky play weighted by the moment it happened, so a missed kick at the end of a close game counts for far more than one in a blowout. Positive: in the Commanders’ favor. At the fitted luck shares.
| Kind | Wins | Points |
|---|---|---|
| Fumble bounces | +0.10 | +3.1 |
| Judgment calls | −0.03 | +0.7 |
| Injuries | −0.04 | −1.4 |
| 3rd & 4th downs | −0.07 | 0.0 |
| Drops | −0.07 | −1.6 |