luckadjusted

Week 9 2025 · November 2, 2025

Falcons at Patriots, Week 9 2025: who deserved to win?

The Patriots beat the Falcons 24–23, and it was no fluke: replayed with the way both teams actually played, the Patriots win 9 of 10.

Before kickoff the Patriots were 66% favorites. The biggest swing (Q4, 4:44 left): the Falcons converted 4th & 8, worth 18 points of win probability to the Falcons.

Final

Atlanta Falcons 23
New England Patriots 24

November 2, 2025 · Gillette Stadium · Closing line: Patriots −5.5

Luck index +15 Patriots about even · −15 Falcons

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Falcons win 1, Patriots win 9.

  1. 1 ATL 31 NE 24
  2. 2 ATL 26 NE 28
  3. 3 ATL 10 NE 14
  4. 4 ATL 10 NE 17
  5. 5 ATL 13 NE 23
  6. 6 ATL 24 NE 37
  7. 7 ATL 20 NE 36
  8. 8 ATL 10 NE 29
  9. 9 ATL 7 NE 30
  10. 10 ATL 0 NE 30

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Falcons win 15% of them, Patriots 85%, counting the 2% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Patriots by 1.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Falcons by 17+1.1%
Falcons by 9–163.0%
Falcons by 1–89.0%
Level after regulation2.0%
Patriots by 1–820.6%
Patriots by 9–1624.6%
Patriots by 17+39.8%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +3.9 points to the Patriots: the final margin was Patriots by 1, without the luck Falcons by 2.9. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • A. Borregales, 32 yds made · 95% expected
  • J. Romo, 38 yds made · 89% expected
  • Extra point missed · 93% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Falcons 5 for 40 yards, Patriots 2 for 15 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q2 2:30 Offensive Pass Interference on the Falcons (Drake London), 10 yards +3% NE +1.0 pts
Q3 6:26 Offensive Holding on the Falcons (Josh Woods), 10 yards +2% NE +1.0 pts
Q3 4:02 False Start on the Falcons (Kyle Pitts), 5 yards · pre-snap +1% NE +0.6 pts
Q4 14:08 Offensive Holding on the Patriots (Jahlani Tavai), 10 yards 0% ATL +0.9 pts
Q4 9:36 Illegal Use of Hands on the Patriots (K'Lavon Chaisson), 5 yards +2% ATL +0.4 pts
Q4 2:22 False Start on the Falcons, 5 yards · pre-snap +3% NE +0.6 pts
Q4 2:09 Intentional Grounding on the Falcons (Michael Penix), 10 yards +13% NE +0.9 pts

Falcons penalties, every game · Patriots penalties, every game · All teams, 2025

When it happened

Patriots’ chance of winning

As low as 44% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Patriots were ahead in it, below while the Falcons were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q2 6:19 The Patriots converted 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 33% expected +9% NE NE: Touchdown
2 Q2 1:21 The Falcons were stopped on 4th & 23rd & 4th downs · 60% expectedD. London dropped a catchable passDrops · 7 drops on 319 catchable balls before this +7% NE ATL: Touchdown
3 Q4 11:58 The Patriots converted 3rd & 123rd & 4th downs · 24% expected +7% NE NE: Punt
4 Q4 6:03 The Falcons converted 4th & 43rd & 4th downs · 45% expected +14% ATL ATL: Touchdown
5 Q4 4:44 The Falcons converted 4th & 83rd & 4th downs · 24% expected +18% ATL ATL: Touchdown
6 Q4 4:40 The Falcons missed an extra pointKicks · extra points are made about 94% of the time +14% NE ATL: Punt
7 Q4 2:09 Intentional Grounding on the Falcons (Michael Penix), 10 yardsJudgment calls · 1 flag in 623 snaps before, position avg 1 per 625 +13% NE NE: End of game
8 Q4 1:42 The Patriots converted 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 40% expected +10% NE NE: End of game

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Rhamondre Stevenson (NE RB), out · 0.3 pts
  • Divine Deablo (ATL LB), out (IR) · 0.5 pts
  • Casey Washington (ATL WR), out · 0.2 pts
  • Zach Harrison (ATL DL), out · 0.2 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Falcons 68% · Patriots 32%

Final margin
Patriots by 1
Luck in points
3.9 for the Patriots
Luck-adjusted margin
Falcons by 2.9
Replay with same day's form
Falcons 15% · Patriots 85% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 9 2025 games · Falcons · Patriots

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