Week 9 2025 · November 2, 2025
49ers at Giants, Week 9 2025: who deserved to win?
The 49ers beat the Giants 34–24, and it was no fluke: replayed with the way both teams actually played, the 49ers win 8 of 10. The Giants had the bounces: injuries alone were worth 22 points of win probability to the Giants.
Before kickoff the 49ers were 57% favorites. The biggest swing (Q2, 13:14 left): the 49ers converted 3rd & 5, worth 9 points of win probability to the 49ers.
Final
 San Francisco 49ers | 34 |
|---|---|
 New York Giants | 24 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +19 49ers about even · −19 Giants
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. 49ers win 8, Giants win 2.
- 1 SF 45 NYG 20
- 2 SF 30 NYG 10
- 3 SF 37 NYG 20
- 4 SF 27 NYG 14
- 5 SF 41 NYG 31
- 6 SF 17 NYG 10
- 7 SF 27 NYG 23
- 8 SF 17 NYG 16
- 9 SF 20 NYG 23
- 10 SF 19 NYG 31
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 4,000 replays ended
49ers win 81% of them, Giants 19%, counting the 2% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: 49ers by 10.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| 49ers by 17+ | 29.6% |
| 49ers by 9–16 | 22.4% |
| 49ers by 1–8 | 27.8% |
| Level after regulation | 1.8% |
| Giants by 1–8 | 11.5% |
| Giants by 9–16 | 5.1% |
| Giants by 17+ | 1.9% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.
- E. Pineiro, 54 yds made · 70% expected
- G. Gano, 45 yds missed · 86% expected
- E. Pineiro, 33 yds made · 96% expected
- G. Gano, 22 yds made · 100% expected
Penalties: 49ers 6 for 34 yards, Giants 5 for 23 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 11:33 | Neutral Zone Infraction on the 49ers (Jordan Elliott), 5 yards · pre-snap | +2% NYG +0.4 pts |
| Q1 1:07 | False Start on the 49ers, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% NYG +0.6 pts |
| Q2 10:50 | False Start on the Giants, 5 yards · pre-snap | +3% SF +0.8 pts |
| Q2 10:33 | False Start on the Giants, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% SF +0.6 pts |
| Q3 15:00 | Kickoff Short of Landing Zone on the Giants (Jamie Gillan), 0 yards · pre-snap | 0% SF 0.0 pts |
| Q3 13:36 | Defensive Holding on the Giants (Dexter Lawrence), 5 yards | +1% SF +1.1 pts |
| Q3 8:57 | Defensive Holding on the 49ers (Upton Stout), 5 yards | +2% NYG +0.7 pts |
| Q3 8:37 | Unnecessary Roughness on the 49ers (Tatum Bethune), 10 yards | +4% NYG +1.3 pts |
| Q3 5:31 | Illegal Shift on the 49ers, 4 yards · pre-snap | +3% NYG +1.0 pts |
| Q4 8:59 | Defensive Offside on the 49ers (Mykel Williams), 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% NYG +0.2 pts |
| Q4 6:11 | Tripping on the Giants (Dane Belton), 8 yards | +1% SF +1.6 pts |
49ers penalties, every game · Giants penalties, every game · All teams, 2025
When it happened
Giants’ chance of winning
As low as 0% and as high as 72%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 13:55 | The Giants converted 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 42% expected | +5% NYG | NYG: Touchdown |
| 2 | Q1 4:21 | The 49ers converted 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 46% expected | +7% SF | SF: Touchdown |
| 3 | Q2 13:14 | The 49ers converted 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 44% expected | +9% SF | SF: Touchdown |
| 4 | Q2 0:53 | The Giants were stopped on 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 35% expectedT. Johnson dropped a catchable passDrops · 8 drops on 64 catchable balls before this | +7% SF | NYG: Punt |
| 5 | Q2 0:38 | The 49ers fumbled and the Giants recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 | +7% NYG | SF: End of half |
| 6 | Q2 0:20 | G. Gano missed 45-yard field goalKicks · 86% expected for him, 42 of 51 from 45+ before | +7% SF | NYG: Field goal |
| 7 | Q3 7:28 | The Giants were stopped on 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 34% expected | +4% SF | NYG: Field goal |
| 8 | Q3 5:06 | The 49ers were stopped on 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 44% expected | +4% NYG | SF: Punt |
Missing players
Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.
- Paulson Adebo (NYG CB), out · 0.8 pts
- Malik Nabers (NYG WR), out (IR) · 0.8 pts
- Jevon Holland (NYG S), out · 0.6 pts
- Cordale Flott (NYG CB), out · 0.4 pts
- Jermaine Eluemunor (NYG OL), out · 0.3 pts
- Cam Skattebo (NYG RB), out (IR) · 0.1 pts
- Brock Purdy (SF QB), out, replaced by m.jones · 7.3 pts
- Nick Bosa (SF DL), out (IR) · 0.9 pts
- Fred Warner (SF LB), out (IR) · 0.8 pts
- Ricky Pearsall (SF WR), out · 0.7 pts
- Jake Brendel (SF OL), out · 0.4 pts
- Bryce Huff (SF DL), out · 0.3 pts
- Marques Sigle (SF S), out · 0.3 pts
- Ben Bartch (SF OL), out (IR) · 0.1 pts
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
49ers 77% · Giants 23%
- Final margin
- 49ers by 10
- Luck in points
- 1.5 for the Giants
- Luck-adjusted margin
- 49ers by 11.5
- Replay with same day's form
- 49ers 81% · Giants 19% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.
Methodology and validation · All Week 9 2025 games · 
49ers · 
Giants
More from Week 9 2025
- Ravens at Dolphins BAL 28–6 · replay 90% for the winner
- Falcons at Patriots NE 24–23 · replay 85% for the winner
- Panthers at Packers CAR 16–13 · replay 27% for the winner
- Bears at Bengals CHI 47–42 · replay 51% for the winner
- Broncos at Texans DEN 18–15 · replay 73% for the winner
- Colts at Steelers PIT 27–20 · replay 22% for the winner
- Chargers at Titans LAC 27–20 · replay 98% for the winner
- Vikings at Lions MIN 27–24 · replay 76% for the winner
- Jaguars at Raiders JAX 30–29 · replay 23% for the winner
- Saints at Rams LA 34–10 · replay 96% for the winner
- Chiefs at Bills BUF 28–21 · replay 87% for the winner
- Seahawks at Commanders SEA 38–14 · replay 82% for the winner
- Cardinals at Cowboys ARI 27–17 · replay 61% for the winner