Week 9 2025 · November 2, 2025
Bears at Bengals, Week 9 2025: who deserved to win?
The Bears beat the Bengals 47–42, but it was a coin flip: replayed with the way both teams played, the Bears win 5 of 10. Luck ran their way: injuries alone were worth 15 points of win probability to the Bears.
Before kickoff the Bears were 59% favorites. The biggest swing (Q4, 0:04 left): the Bengals were intercepted on a well-placed throw, worth 63 points of win probability to the Bears.
Final
 Chicago Bears | 47 |
|---|---|
 Cincinnati Bengals | 42 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +49 Bears lucky · −49 Bengals
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Bears win 5, Bengals win 5.
- 1 CHI 58 CIN 34
- 2 CHI 52 CIN 37
- 3 CHI 39 CIN 30
- 4 CHI 27 CIN 23
- 5 CHI 43 CIN 41
- 6 CHI 41 CIN 42
- 7 CHI 41 CIN 46
- 8 CHI 31 CIN 40
- 9 CHI 19 CIN 33
- 10 CHI 20 CIN 44
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 4,000 replays ended
Bears win 51% of them, Bengals 49%, counting the 5% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Bears by 5.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Bears by 17+ | 12.6% |
| Bears by 9–16 | 13.8% |
| Bears by 1–8 | 21.6% |
| Level after regulation | 5.3% |
| Bengals by 1–8 | 21.6% |
| Bengals by 9–16 | 13.7% |
| Bengals by 17+ | 11.6% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.
- E. McPherson, 41 yds made · 87% expected
- E. McPherson, 33 yds made · 95% expected
- C. Santos, 24 yds made · 99% expected
- C. Santos, 47 yds blocked · 78% expected
- C. Santos, 36 yds made · 92% expected
- E. McPherson, 54 yds missed · 66% expected
Penalties: Bears 7 for 43 yards, Bengals 7 for 49 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 13:09 | Illegal Contact on the Bengals (Demetrius Knight), 5 yards | +5% CHI +2.2 pts |
| Q1 4:29 | Illegal Shift on the Bears, 5 yards, wiping out the play · pre-snap | +7% CIN +1.4 pts |
| Q1 0:54 | Defensive Offside on the Bengals (DJ Ivey), 5 yards · pre-snap | +4% CHI +1.1 pts |
| Q2 14:13 | Ineligible Downfield Pass on the Bengals, 5 yards | +3% CHI +0.9 pts |
| Q2 13:26 | False Start on the Bengals, 5 yards · pre-snap | +2% CHI +0.9 pts |
| Q2 6:44 | Unsportsmanlike Conduct on the Bengals, 15 yards | +4% CHI +1.4 pts |
| Q2 5:47 | Offensive Holding on the Bears, 10 yards | +3% CIN +0.8 pts |
| Q2 1:12 | Offensive Holding on the Bears (Jahdae Walker), 10 yards | +4% CIN +0.9 pts |
| Q3 15:00 | Illegal Formation on the Bears (Durham Smythe), 5 yards · pre-snap | +2% CIN +0.6 pts |
| Q3 9:54 | Defensive Holding on the Bengals (Jordan Jefferson), 4 yards | +1% CHI +0.7 pts |
| Q3 8:36 | Delay of Game on the Bears, 4 yards · pre-snap | +3% CIN +1.4 pts |
| Q4 6:02 | Intentional Grounding on the Bengals (Joe Flacco), 10 yards | +4% CHI +0.7 pts |
| Q4 3:07 | Defensive Pass Interference on the Bears (Nick McCloud), 7 yards, wiping out the play | +4% CIN +5.1 pts |
| Q4 2:35 | False Start on the Bears, 2 yards · pre-snap | 0% CIN +0.2 pts |
Bears penalties, every game · Bengals penalties, every game · All teams, 2025
When it happened
Bengals’ chance of winning
As low as 0% and as high as 77%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 15:00 | Return touchdown by the BengalsSpecial teams | +21% CIN | CIN: Touchdown |
| 2 | Q1 8:50 | The Bears converted 4th & 23rd & 4th downs · 55% expected | +11% CHI | CHI: Touchdown |
| 3 | Q1 5:49 | The Bengals were stopped on 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 39% expectedC. Brown dropped a catchable passDrops · 5 drops on 104 catchable balls before this | +10% CHI | CIN: Field goal |
| 4 | Q2 7:31 | The Bengals converted 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 29% expected | +15% CIN | CIN: Field goal |
| 5 | Q3 6:56 | The Bengals converted 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 53% expected | +14% CIN | CIN: Touchdown |
| 6 | Q4 6:02 | The Bengals were stopped on 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 54% expectedIntentional Grounding on the Bengals (Joe Flacco), 10 yardsJudgment calls · 6 flags in 2499 snaps before, position avg 1 per 625 | +17% CHI | CIN: Missed field goal |
| 7 | Q4 1:43 | The Bengals’ two-point try was good3rd & 4th downs · 47% expectedOnside kick recovered by the BengalsSpecial teams | +16% CIN | CIN: Touchdown |
| 8 | Q4 0:04 | The Bengals were intercepted on a well-placed throwInterceptions · 0% expected to stay out of the defense's hands | +63% CHI | – |
Missing players
Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.
- Joe Burrow (CIN QB), out (IR), replaced by j.flacco · 4.7 pts
- Trey Hendrickson (CIN DE), out · 0.6 pts
- Logan Wilson (CIN LB), out · 0.4 pts
- Dalton Risner (CIN G), out · 0.3 pts
- D'Andre Swift (CHI RB), out · 0.3 pts
- Kyler Gordon (CHI DB), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
- Braxton Jones (CHI OL), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Bears 78% · Bengals 22%
- Final margin
- Bears by 5
- Luck in points
- 3.6 for the Bears
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Bears by 1.4
- Replay with same day's form
- Bears 51% · Bengals 49% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.
Methodology and validation · All Week 9 2025 games · 
Bears · 
Bengals
More from Week 9 2025
- Ravens at Dolphins BAL 28–6 · replay 90% for the winner
- Falcons at Patriots NE 24–23 · replay 85% for the winner
- Panthers at Packers CAR 16–13 · replay 27% for the winner
- Broncos at Texans DEN 18–15 · replay 73% for the winner
- Colts at Steelers PIT 27–20 · replay 22% for the winner
- Chargers at Titans LAC 27–20 · replay 98% for the winner
- Vikings at Lions MIN 27–24 · replay 76% for the winner
- 49ers at Giants SF 34–24 · replay 81% for the winner
- Jaguars at Raiders JAX 30–29 · replay 23% for the winner
- Saints at Rams LA 34–10 · replay 96% for the winner
- Chiefs at Bills BUF 28–21 · replay 87% for the winner
- Seahawks at Commanders SEA 38–14 · replay 82% for the winner
- Cardinals at Cowboys ARI 27–17 · replay 61% for the winner