luckadjusted

Week 10 2025 · November 9, 2025

Browns at Jets, Week 10 2025: who deserved to win?

The Jets beat the Browns 27–20, but it was a coin flip: replayed with the way both teams played, the Jets win 4 of 10.

Before kickoff the Browns were 54% favorites. The biggest swing (Q1, 6:34 left): Return touchdown by the Jets, worth 17 points of win probability to the Jets.

Final

Cleveland Browns 20
New York Jets 27

November 9, 2025 · MetLife Stadium · Closing line: Browns −1.5

Luck index +55 Jets lucky · −55 Browns

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Browns win 6, Jets win 4.

  1. 1 CLE 26 NYJ 6
  2. 2 CLE 22 NYJ 7
  3. 3 CLE 24 NYJ 14
  4. 4 CLE 17 NYJ 10
  5. 5 CLE 21 NYJ 17
  6. 6 CLE 15 NYJ 13
  7. 7 CLE 13 NYJ 16
  8. 8 CLE 10 NYJ 16
  9. 9 CLE 6 NYJ 17
  10. 10 CLE 5 NYJ 23

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Browns win 55% of them, Jets 45%, counting the 7% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Jets by 7.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Browns by 17+10.6%
Browns by 9–1615.8%
Browns by 1–823.1%
Level after regulation6.7%
Jets by 1–821.4%
Jets by 9–1614.1%
Jets by 17+8.4%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +2.5 points to the Jets: the final margin was Jets by 7, without the luck Jets by 4.5. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • N. Folk, 26 yds made · 100% expected
  • A. Szmyt, 45 yds made · 77% expected
  • N. Folk, 37 yds made · 92% expected
  • A. Szmyt, 29 yds made · 96% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Browns 10 for 78 yards, Jets 7 for 61 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 14:53 Offensive Holding on the Browns, 10 yards +1% NYJ +0.9 pts
Q1 10:14 Defensive Pass Interference on the Jets (Azareye'h Thomas), 29 yards +7% CLE +3.0 pts
Q1 7:49 Defensive Holding on the Jets (Jarvis Brownlee), 5 yards +3% CLE +0.6 pts
Q1 2:07 False Start on the Browns (Harold Fannin), 5 yards · pre-snap 0% NYJ +0.4 pts
Q1 1:09 False Start on the Jets, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% CLE +0.6 pts
Q2 13:51 Defensive Pass Interference on the Jets (Jarvis Brownlee), 7 yards +3% CLE +0.7 pts
Q2 11:38 False Start on the Browns, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% NYJ +0.7 pts
Q2 6:24 Unnecessary Roughness on the Browns (Carson Schwesinger), 8 yards +3% NYJ +1.3 pts
Q2 1:18 False Start on the Jets, 5 yards · pre-snap +2% CLE +0.3 pts
Q3 15:00 Unnecessary Roughness on the Browns (Adin Huntington), 15 yards +3% NYJ +1.4 pts
Q3 9:15 Tripping on the Browns, 15 yards +4% NYJ +1.5 pts
Q3 4:54 Delay of Game on the Browns, 5 yards · pre-snap +2% NYJ +0.5 pts
Q4 9:26 Defensive Offside on the Browns (Maliek Collins), 5 yards · pre-snap 0% NYJ +0.4 pts
Q4 5:39 Defensive Holding on the Jets (Jarvis Brownlee), 5 yards +1% CLE +0.6 pts
Q4 5:22 Defensive Holding on the Jets (Jamien Sherwood), 5 yards +3% CLE +1.1 pts
Q4 1:56 Defensive Holding on the Browns (Devin Bush Jr.), 5 yards +2% NYJ +1.9 pts
Q4 0:58 Neutral Zone Infraction on the Browns (Cameron Thomas), 5 yards · pre-snap +1% NYJ +1.6 pts

Browns penalties, every game · Jets penalties, every game · All teams, 2025

When it happened

Jets’ chance of winning

As low as 39% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Jets were ahead in it, below while the Browns were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 10:14 Defensive Pass Interference on the Jets (Azareye'h Thomas), 29 yardsJudgment calls · 0 flags in 194 snaps before, position avg 1 per 213 +7% CLE CLE: Touchdown
2 Q1 6:34 Return touchdown by the JetsSpecial teams +17% NYJ NYJ: Touchdown
3 Q1 6:01 Return touchdown by the JetsSpecial teams +12% NYJ NYJ: Opp touchdown
4 Q2 0:27 The Browns got away with an interception-worthy throwInterceptions · 47% expected to stay out of the defense's hands +7% CLE CLE: Field goal
5 Q2 0:01 A. Szmyt made 45-yard field goalKicks · 77% expected for him, 3 of 5 from 45+ before +10% CLE CLE: Punt
6 Q3 11:18 The Browns converted 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 31% expected +7% CLE CLE: Punt
7 Q4 10:21 The Browns were stopped on 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 71% expected +6% NYJ CLE: Field goal
8 Q4 3:37 The Browns were stopped on 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 34% expected +8% NYJ CLE: Field goal

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Josh Reynolds (NYJ WR), out (IR) · 0.5 pts
  • Andre Cisco (NYJ S), out (IR) · 0.5 pts
  • Francisco Mauigoa (NYJ LB), out · 0.1 pts
  • Cornelius Lucas (CLE T), out · 0.6 pts
  • Isaiah Bond (CLE WR), out · 0.4 pts
  • Dawand Jones (CLE T), out (IR) · 0.3 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Browns 22% · Jets 78%

Final margin
Jets by 7
Luck in points
2.5 for the Jets
Luck-adjusted margin
Jets by 4.5
Replay with same day's form
Browns 55% · Jets 45% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 10 2025 games · Browns · Jets

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