2021 NFL season · final · regular season

Referee calls, 2021: who they helped

Judgment calls helped the Colts most in 2021: +1.35 wins, the calls that went their way minus the ones that didn’t, each weighted by the moment it came. They hurt the Cowboys most: −1.10 wins. The Cowboys were flagged the most, 127 times.

Judgment calls are the flags an official has to judge: holding, pass interference, roughing and the like. Each is valued by what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out, so a call in a decided game counts for nothing and one at the turn of a close game for most of a win. Week to week a team’s call luck barely repeats (correlation 0.06), which is what chance looks like. How calls are valued

#	Team	Call luck, wins	Judgment flags against	For	Pre-snap flags against
1	Colts	+1.35	47	64	28
2	Steelers	+1.14	63	65	43
3	Lions	+1.03	54	64	51
4	Patriots	+0.88	57	69	38
5	Browns	+0.79	64	70	48
6	Bengals	+0.75	44	70	28
7	Rams	+0.71	45	48	31
8	Giants	+0.71	52	67	36
9	Raiders	+0.54	82	68	42
10	Jaguars	+0.52	60	64	44
11	Falcons	+0.47	49	70	43
12	Washington	+0.42	51	57	31
13	Broncos	+0.41	53	62	30
14	Seahawks	+0.07	61	69	36
15	Texans	−0.12	71	60	43
16	Dolphins	−0.14	64	67	41
17	Panthers	−0.15	61	64	46
18	Saints	−0.19	60	58	38
19	Jets	−0.22	69	53	34
20	Bears	−0.34	69	63	37
21	Packers	−0.34	49	55	20
22	Chiefs	−0.49	75	65	35
23	Buccaneers	−0.50	56	49	40
24	Eagles	−0.51	70	54	37
25	Cardinals	−0.53	73	65	41
26	Bills	−0.69	81	65	32
27	Chargers	−0.71	76	69	40
28	49ers	−0.77	71	57	30
29	Ravens	−0.94	62	61	40
30	Titans	−0.97	72	73	31
31	Vikings	−1.09	81	60	30
32	Cowboys	−1.10	80	77	47

Call luck by team

IND +1.35 1st

PIT +1.14 2nd

DET +1.03 3rd

NE +0.88 4th

CLE +0.79 5th

CIN +0.75 6th

LA +0.71 7th

NYG +0.71 8th

LV +0.54 9th

JAX +0.52 10th

ATL +0.47 11th

WAS +0.42 12th

DEN +0.41 13th

SEA +0.07 14th

HOU −0.12 15th

MIA −0.14 16th

CAR −0.15 17th

NO −0.19 18th

NYJ −0.22 19th

CHI −0.34 20th

GB −0.34 21st

KC −0.49 22nd

TB −0.50 23rd

PHI −0.51 24th

ARI −0.53 25th

BUF −0.69 26th

LAC −0.71 27th

SF −0.77 28th

BAL −0.94 29th

TEN −0.97 30th

MIN −1.09 31st

DAL −1.10 32nd

Referee crews

Flags per game in each crew’s games, and how the judgment calls leaned: share of a win a game toward the home team.

Referee	Games	Judgment flags per game	Pre-snap per game	Toward home team
Carl Cheffers	16	9.3	4.9	+2.1%
Land Clark	16	8.7	5.0	−2.4%
Scott Novak	16	8.4	4.9	+0.5%
Shawn Hochuli	17	8.7	4.4	+2.0%
Alex Kemp	17	7.7	5.1	+5.2%
Clete Blakeman	17	8.5	3.8	+3.4%
Adrian Hill	16	7.9	4.3	+5.4%
Brad Rogers	16	7.9	4.0	−0.1%
Clay Martin	17	7.4	4.2	+4.4%
Jerome Boger	17	6.2	5.3	+4.3%
Craig Wrolstad	17	6.6	4.6	+4.6%
Brad Allen	17	7.1	4.2	+5.7%
Shawn Smith	17	6.7	4.1	+0.4%
Tony Corrente	16	6.6	4.0	−5.2%
John Hussey	17	6.2	4.1	0.0%
Ron Torbert	18	6.4	3.4	−2.3%
Bill Vinovich	17	5.2	3.9	+3.2%

All referees since 2019 · 2021 luck rankings · Expected wins