luckadjusted

Week 9 2022 · November 6, 2022

Chargers at Falcons, Week 9 2022: who deserved to win?

The Chargers beat the Falcons 20–17, but it was a coin flip: replayed with the way both teams played, the Chargers win 5 of 10. Luck ran their way: kicks alone were worth 29 points of win probability to the Chargers.

Before kickoff the Chargers were 57% favorites. The game turned on a luck play (Q3, 11:26 left): Tripping on the Falcons, 10 yards, wiping out the play, worth 21 points of win probability to the Chargers. The biggest single swing (Q4, 2:38 left): Ineligible Downfield Pass on the Chargers, 5 yards, wiping out the play.

Final

Los Angeles Chargers 20
Atlanta Falcons 17

November 6, 2022 · Mercedes-Benz Stadium · Closing line: Chargers −2.5

Luck index +55 Chargers lucky · −55 Falcons

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Chargers win 5, Falcons win 5.

  1. 1 LAC 33 ATL 13
  2. 2 LAC 27 ATL 14
  3. 3 LAC 22 ATL 13
  4. 4 LAC 22 ATL 17
  5. 5 LAC 26 ATL 24
  6. 6 LAC 17 ATL 19
  7. 7 LAC 19 ATL 24
  8. 8 LAC 16 ATL 24
  9. 9 LAC 14 ATL 27
  10. 10 LAC 6 ATL 27

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Chargers win 45% of them, Falcons 55%, counting the 7% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Chargers by 3.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Chargers by 17+8.1%
Chargers by 9–1614.3%
Chargers by 1–821.7%
Level after regulation7.0%
Falcons by 1–824.1%
Falcons by 9–1614.6%
Falcons by 17+10.3%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +2.3 points to the Chargers: the final margin was Chargers by 3, without the luck Chargers by 0.7. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • Y. Koo, 29 yds made · 98% expected
  • Y. Koo, 50 yds missed · 75% expected
  • C. Dicker, 31 yds made · 96% expected
  • C. Dicker, 37 yds made · 90% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Chargers 5 for 45 yards, Falcons 2 for 15 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q2 13:23 Offensive Holding on the Chargers, 10 yards +3% ATL +0.9 pts
Q2 12:34 False Start on the Chargers (Sony Michel), 5 yards · pre-snap +2% ATL +0.8 pts
Q2 9:15 Face Mask on the Chargers, 15 yards +2% ATL +1.0 pts
Q2 0:12 Delay of Game on the Falcons, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% LAC 0.0 pts
Q3 11:26 Tripping on the Falcons, 10 yards, wiping out the play +21% LAC +4.2 pts
Q4 12:12 Offensive Holding on the Chargers, 10 yards +4% ATL +0.9 pts
Q4 2:38 Ineligible Downfield Pass on the Chargers, 5 yards, wiping out the play +26% ATL +2.0 pts

Chargers penalties, every game · Falcons penalties, every game · All teams, 2022

When it happened

Falcons’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 84%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Falcons were ahead in it, below while the Chargers were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q2 1:35 The Chargers converted 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 42% expected +10% LAC LAC: Touchdown
2 Q3 12:04 The Falcons converted 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 32% expected +12% ATL ATL: Turnover
3 Q3 11:26 The game turned hereTripping on the Falcons, 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls +21% LAC LAC: Turnover
4 Q3 9:31 The Falcons fumbled and the Chargers recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +15% LAC ATL: Touchdown
5 Q3 8:39 The Chargers were stopped on 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 33% expectedThe Chargers were intercepted on a well-placed throwInterceptions · 0% expected to stay out of the defense's hands +19% ATL LAC: Punt
6 Q4 8:49 The Chargers converted 4th & 43rd & 4th downs · 46% expected +12% LAC LAC: Field goal
7 Q4 2:38 Ineligible Downfield Pass on the Chargers, 5 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls +26% ATL –
8 Q4 0:03 C. Dicker made 37-yard field goalKicks · 90% expected for him +16% LAC –

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Casey Hayward (ATL CB), out (IR) · 0.9 pts
  • Elijah Wilkinson (ATL T), out (IR) · 0.6 pts
  • Rashawn Slater (LAC T), out (IR) · 1.0 pts
  • Mike Williams (LAC WR), out · 0.9 pts
  • J.C. Jackson (LAC CB), out (IR) · 0.6 pts
  • Joey Bosa (LAC LB), out (IR) · 0.5 pts
  • Dustin Hopkins (LAC K), out · 0.3 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Chargers 50% · Falcons 50%

Final margin
Chargers by 3
Luck in points
2.3 for the Chargers
Luck-adjusted margin
Chargers by 0.7
Replay with same day's form
Chargers 45% · Falcons 55% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 9 2022 games · Chargers · Falcons

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