luckadjusted

Week 9 2022 · November 3, 2022

Eagles at Texans, Week 9 2022: who deserved to win?

The Eagles beat the Texans 29–17 and were the better team on the day: replayed with the same form, they win 8 of 10. The Texans had the bounces: kicks alone were worth 18 points of win probability to the Texans.

Before kickoff the Eagles were 85% favorites. The biggest swing (Q3, 8:23 left): the Texans were stopped on 3rd & 6, worth 17 points of win probability to the Eagles.

Final

Philadelphia Eagles 29
Houston Texans 17

November 3, 2022 · NRG Stadium · Closing line: Eagles −14

Luck index +23 Eagles about even · −23 Texans

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Eagles win 8, Texans win 2.

  1. 1 PHI 35 HOU 7
  2. 2 PHI 28 HOU 7
  3. 3 PHI 31 HOU 14
  4. 4 PHI 21 HOU 7
  5. 5 PHI 27 HOU 17
  6. 6 PHI 23 HOU 16
  7. 7 PHI 17 HOU 13
  8. 8 PHI 22 HOU 20
  9. 9 PHI 20 HOU 23
  10. 10 PHI 10 HOU 24

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Eagles win 77% of them, Texans 23%, counting the 2% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Eagles by 12.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Eagles by 17+30.2%
Eagles by 9–1621.4%
Eagles by 1–825.6%
Level after regulation2.1%
Texans by 1–812.0%
Texans by 9–166.3%
Texans by 17+2.4%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +2.3 points to the Eagles: the final margin was Eagles by 12, without the luck Eagles by 9.7. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • J. Elliott, 54 yds missed · 66% expected
  • K. Fairbairn, 30 yds made · 96% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Eagles 4 for 31 yards, Texans 4 for 24 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 9:37 Offensive Holding on the Eagles (Shaun Bradley), 8 yards +2% HOU +0.8 pts
Q1 9:27 Defensive Pass Interference on the Texans, 8 yards +2% PHI +1.1 pts
Q2 14:14 False Start on the Texans, 5 yards · pre-snap +3% PHI +0.6 pts
Q3 12:49 Offensive Holding on the Texans (Brevin Jordan), 10 yards +4% PHI +1.0 pts
Q4 11:22 Neutral Zone Infraction on the Texans, 1 yard · pre-snap 0% HOU 0.0 pts
Q4 10:44 Roughing the Passer on the Eagles (Javon Hargrave), 15 yards +2% HOU +1.3 pts
Q4 3:07 Defensive Pass Interference on the Eagles (Kyzir White), 3 yards +1% PHI +0.8 pts
Q4 1:54 Ineligible Downfield Pass on the Eagles, 5 yards, wiping out the play +1% HOU +1.9 pts

Eagles penalties, every game · Texans penalties, every game · All teams, 2022

When it happened

Texans’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 74%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Texans were ahead in it, below while the Eagles were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 11:56 The Texans converted 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 40% expected +7% HOU HOU: Touchdown
2 Q1 8:51 The Eagles converted 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 39% expected +6% PHI PHI: Touchdown
3 Q1 1:36 The Eagles converted 4th & 23rd & 4th downs · 54% expected +12% PHI PHI: Touchdown
4 Q2 12:16 The Eagles fumbled and the Texans recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +9% HOU PHI: Touchdown
5 Q2 4:37 The Eagles converted 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 40% expected +8% PHI PHI: Touchdown
6 Q2 0:03 J. Elliott missed 54-yard field goalKicks · 66% expected for him, 13 of 22 from 45+ before +14% HOU PHI: Punt
7 Q3 13:36 The Eagles were stopped on 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 54% expected +8% HOU PHI: Punt
8 Q3 8:23 The Texans were stopped on 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 37% expectedThe Texans threw an interception-worthy pass, and it was pickedInterceptions · 48% expected to stay out of the defense's hands +17% PHI HOU: Field goal

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Brandin Cooks (HOU WR), out · 1.0 pts
  • Nico Collins (HOU WR), out · 0.8 pts
  • Jonathan Greenard (HOU DE), out (IR) · 0.6 pts
  • Justin Britt (HOU C), out (IR) · 0.5 pts
  • Maliek Collins (HOU DT), out · 0.3 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Eagles 99% · Texans 1%

Final margin
Eagles by 12
Luck in points
2.4 for the Eagles
Luck-adjusted margin
Eagles by 9.6
Replay with same day's form
Eagles 77% · Texans 23% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 9 2022 games · Eagles · Texans

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