luckadjusted

Week 9 2022 · November 6, 2022

Seahawks at Cardinals, Week 9 2022: who deserved to win?

The Seahawks beat the Cardinals 31–21, and it was no fluke: replayed with the way both teams actually played, the Seahawks win 10 of 10. The Cardinals had the bounces: judgment calls alone were worth 9 points of win probability to the Cardinals.

An off day for the Cardinals: their offense played far below its usual level. In a fresh game against the Seahawks they would win 53% of the time; with this day’s form, 1%. The numbers

Before kickoff the Cardinals were 54% favorites. The biggest swing (Q3, 9:26 left): Return touchdown by the Cardinals, worth 38 points of win probability to the Cardinals.

Final

Seattle Seahawks 31
Arizona Cardinals 21

November 6, 2022 · State Farm Stadium · Closing line: Cardinals −1.5

Luck index +1 Seahawks about even · −1 Cardinals

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Seahawks win 10, Cardinals win 0.

  1. 1 SEA 42 ARI 3
  2. 2 SEA 37 ARI 7
  3. 3 SEA 37 ARI 10
  4. 4 SEA 27 ARI 3
  5. 5 SEA 33 ARI 13
  6. 6 SEA 31 ARI 13
  7. 7 SEA 22 ARI 6
  8. 8 SEA 21 ARI 9
  9. 9 SEA 20 ARI 12
  10. 10 SEA 31 ARI 27

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

An off day for the Cardinals

Their offense played far below its usual level. In a fresh game against the Seahawks they would win 53% of the time; with this day’s form, 1%.

53 points apart for the Cardinals: the gap is how differently this game went from what the two teams usually are.

UnitThis gameUsual levelBetter or worse than usual
Seahawks offenseEPA per play gained +0.22 +0.13 better by 0.09
Seahawks defenseEPA per play allowed −0.07 +0.10 better by 0.17
Cardinals offenseEPA per play gained −0.07 +0.08 worse by 0.14
Cardinals defenseEPA per play allowed +0.22 +0.13 worse by 0.10

EPA (expected points added) per play on competitive snaps, turnovers left out because they are valued as luck. Usual level: the team’s earlier games this season plus half of last season, pulled toward the league average. One team’s defense and the other team’s offense are the same snaps, so one game can’t fully say whose day it was; it shows how far this one was from both teams’ norms.

How 4,000 replays ended

Seahawks win 99% of them, Cardinals 1%. The line is what actually happened: Seahawks by 10.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Seahawks by 17+86.6%
Seahawks by 9–1610.1%
Seahawks by 1–82.6%
Level after regulation0.1%
Cardinals by 1–80.7%
Cardinals by 9–160.1%
Cardinals by 17+0.0%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +6.2 points to the Seahawks: the final margin was Seahawks by 10, without the luck Seahawks by 3.8. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

Penalties: Seahawks 6 for 34 yards, Cardinals 12 for 77 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 13:00 Defensive Offside on the Cardinals (Markus Golden), 5 yards · pre-snap 0% SEA +0.4 pts
Q2 12:46 Defensive Offside on the Cardinals (Leki Fotu), 2 yards · pre-snap +1% SEA +0.5 pts
Q2 11:59 Offensive Holding on the Cardinals, 10 yards +2% SEA +0.9 pts
Q2 10:41 Illegal Contact on the Seahawks (Quandre Diggs), 5 yards, wiping out the play +15% ARI +5.7 pts
Q2 9:34 False Start on the Cardinals, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% SEA +0.7 pts
Q2 9:20 False Start on the Cardinals, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% SEA +0.4 pts
Q2 8:36 Offensive Holding on the Cardinals, 10 yards +2% SEA +0.9 pts
Q2 5:09 Offensive Pass Interference on the Seahawks, 10 yards, wiping out the play +5% ARI +1.6 pts
Q3 10:00 Illegal Forward Pass on the Cardinals, 5 yards +1% SEA +0.5 pts
Q3 8:50 False Start on the Seahawks, 5 yards · pre-snap +2% ARI +0.8 pts
Q3 5:50 Delay of Game on the Seahawks, 5 yards · pre-snap +2% ARI +0.7 pts
Q3 5:38 Unnecessary Roughness on the Cardinals (Zaven Collins), 15 yards +8% SEA +2.0 pts
Q3 2:43 Illegal Formation on the Seahawks, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% ARI +0.5 pts
Q4 7:09 False Start on the Cardinals, 5 yards · pre-snap +2% SEA +0.9 pts
Q4 3:56 Defensive Offside on the Seahawks (Uchenna Nwosu), 4 yards · pre-snap 0% ARI +0.6 pts
Q4 3:35 False Start on the Cardinals (Robbie Chosen), 5 yards · pre-snap +3% SEA +1.4 pts
Q4 2:34 Encroachment on the Cardinals (J.J. Watt), 5 yards · pre-snap +1% SEA +0.4 pts
Q4 1:15 False Start on the Cardinals, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% SEA +0.1 pts

Seahawks penalties, every game · Cardinals penalties, every game · All teams, 2022

When it happened

Cardinals’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 75%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Cardinals were ahead in it, below while the Seahawks were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q2 10:41 Illegal Contact on the Seahawks (Quandre Diggs), 5 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls · 5 flags in 3759 snaps before, position avg 1 per 548 +15% ARI ARI: Punt
2 Q2 6:47 The Seahawks were stopped on 4th & 23rd & 4th downs · 59% expected +10% ARI SEA: Punt
3 Q2 1:04 The Cardinals converted 3rd & 143rd & 4th downs · 21% expected +10% ARI ARI: Turnover
4 Q2 0:29 The Cardinals were stopped on 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 44% expectedR. Anderson dropped a catchable passDrops · 0 drops on 16 catchable balls before this +10% SEA ARI: Turnover
5 Q3 9:26 The Seahawks threw an interception-worthy pass, and it was pickedInterceptions · 46% expected to stay out of the defense's handsReturn touchdown by the CardinalsSpecial teams +38% ARI SEA: Touchdown
6 Q3 2:48 The Seahawks converted 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 28% expected +10% SEA SEA: Touchdown
7 Q3 1:37 The Cardinals converted 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 30% expected +10% ARI ARI: Punt
8 Q4 10:58 The Seahawks converted 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 33% expected +11% SEA SEA: Touchdown

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Marquise Brown (ARI WR), out (IR) · 0.9 pts
  • Rodney Hudson (ARI C), out · 0.6 pts
  • Justin Pugh (ARI G), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Darrell Taylor (SEA DE), out · 0.3 pts
  • Rashaad Penny (SEA RB), out (IR) · 0.1 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Seahawks 72% · Cardinals 28%

Final margin
Seahawks by 10
Luck in points
6.2 for the Seahawks
Luck-adjusted margin
Seahawks by 3.8
Replay with same day's form
Seahawks 99% · Cardinals 1% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 9 2022 games · Seahawks · Cardinals

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