luckadjusted

Week 9 2022 · November 6, 2022

Packers at Lions, Week 9 2022: who deserved to win?

The Lions beat the Packers 15–9, but the Packers played well enough to win it: they take 7 of 10 replays with the same day's form. Luck ran their way: judgment calls alone were worth 20 points of win probability to the Lions.

Before kickoff the Packers were 62% favorites. The biggest swing (Q4, 1:09 left): the Packers converted 4th & 2, worth 24 points of win probability to the Packers.

Final

Green Bay Packers 9
Detroit Lions 15

November 6, 2022 · Ford Field · Closing line: Packers −4

Luck index +66 Lions very lucky · −66 Packers

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Packers win 7, Lions win 3.

  1. 1 GB 34 DET 10
  2. 2 GB 17 DET 0
  3. 3 GB 21 DET 8
  4. 4 GB 20 DET 10
  5. 5 GB 17 DET 10
  6. 6 GB 24 DET 20
  7. 7 GB 23 DET 21
  8. 8 GB 24 DET 27
  9. 9 GB 7 DET 14
  10. 10 GB 13 DET 26

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Packers win 66% of them, Lions 34%, counting the 2% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Lions by 6.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Packers by 17+13.9%
Packers by 9–1620.9%
Packers by 1–829.9%
Level after regulation2.3%
Lions by 1–819.5%
Lions by 9–169.6%
Lions by 17+3.9%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +7.6 points to the Lions: the final margin was Lions by 6, without the luck Packers by 1.6. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

Penalties: Packers 8 for 81 yards, Lions 7 for 62 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 4:00 Offensive Holding on the Lions, 10 yards +2% GB +1.2 pts
Q1 2:38 Offensive Holding on the Packers, 10 yards +3% DET +1.1 pts
Q2 13:44 False Start on the Lions, 5 yards · pre-snap +2% GB +0.7 pts
Q2 11:47 Offensive Holding on the Lions, 10 yards +3% GB +0.9 pts
Q2 2:35 Unnecessary Roughness on the Packers (Jaire Alexander), 15 yards +7% DET +2.6 pts
Q2 0:15 Running Into the Kicker on the Packers (Jaire Alexander), 1 yard +1% DET 0.0 pts
Q3 10:40 Roughing the Passer on the Packers, 15 yards, wiping out the play +6% DET +2.9 pts
Q3 6:10 Illegal Use of Hands on the Lions (Will Harris), 5 yards +2% GB +0.7 pts
Q3 4:43 False Start on the Lions, 5 yards · pre-snap +2% GB +0.7 pts
Q3 4:39 Defensive Holding on the Packers, 5 yards +6% DET +2.2 pts
Q4 13:03 Offensive Pass Interference on the Packers, 10 yards +4% DET +1.4 pts
Q4 8:44 Offensive Pass Interference on the Packers (Allen Lazard), 10 yards +7% DET +1.1 pts
Q4 8:09 Defensive Pass Interference on the Lions, 17 yards +8% GB +2.0 pts
Q4 6:30 Offensive Holding on the Lions, 10 yards, wiping out the play +5% GB +1.9 pts
Q4 6:02 Unnecessary Roughness on the Packers, 15 yards +3% DET +1.8 pts

Packers penalties, every game · Lions penalties, every game · All teams, 2022

When it happened

Lions’ chance of winning

As low as 35% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Lions were ahead in it, below while the Packers were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 10:55 The Lions were stopped on 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 62% expected +9% GB DET: Punt
2 Q1 1:48 The Packers converted 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 25% expected +16% GB GB: Turnover
3 Q2 15:00 The Packers were stopped on 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 63% expectedThe Packers threw an interception-worthy pass, and it was pickedInterceptions · 47% expected to stay out of the defense's hands +16% DET GB: Turnover on downs
4 Q2 2:39 The Packers were stopped on 4th & 33rd & 4th downs · 48% expected +11% DET GB: End of half
5 Q4 8:09 Defensive Pass Interference on the Lions, 17 yardsJudgment calls +8% GB GB: Field goal
6 Q4 2:04 The Lions were stopped on 4th & 33rd & 4th downs · 47% expected +13% GB DET: End of game
7 Q4 1:09 The Packers converted 4th & 23rd & 4th downs · 57% expected +24% GB GB: Turnover on downs
8 Q4 0:42 The Packers were stopped on 4th & 103rd & 4th downs · 25% expected +20% DET –

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Josh Reynolds (DET WR), out · 0.5 pts
  • Tracy Walker (DET FS), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • De'Vondre Campbell (GB LB), out · 0.5 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Packers 61% · Lions 39%

Final margin
Lions by 6
Luck in points
7.6 for the Lions
Luck-adjusted margin
Packers by 1.6
Replay with same day's form
Packers 66% · Lions 34% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 9 2022 games · Packers · Lions

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