luckadjusted

Week 9 2022 · November 6, 2022

Colts at Patriots, Week 9 2022: who deserved to win?

The Patriots beat the Colts 26–3, but it was a coin flip: replayed with the way both teams played, the Patriots win 6 of 10. Luck ran their way: kicks alone were worth 13 points of win probability to the Patriots.

Before kickoff the Patriots were 64% favorites. The biggest swing (Q1, 12:50 left): Roughing the Passer on the Patriots, 15 yards, wiping out the play, worth 10 points of win probability to the Colts.

Final

Indianapolis Colts 3
New England Patriots 26

November 6, 2022 · Gillette Stadium · Closing line: Patriots −5

Luck index +43 Patriots lucky · −43 Colts

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Colts win 4, Patriots win 6.

  1. 1 IND 29 NE 12
  2. 2 IND 20 NE 9
  3. 3 IND 16 NE 10
  4. 4 IND 13 NE 10
  5. 5 IND 10 NE 12
  6. 6 IND 17 NE 23
  7. 7 IND 3 NE 12
  8. 8 IND 22 NE 35
  9. 9 IND 3 NE 19
  10. 10 IND 23 NE 46

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Colts win 43% of them, Patriots 57%, counting the 3% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Patriots by 23.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Colts by 17+7.3%
Colts by 9–1614.0%
Colts by 1–819.5%
Level after regulation2.8%
Patriots by 1–824.9%
Patriots by 9–1617.0%
Patriots by 17+14.5%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +11.6 points to the Patriots: the final margin was Patriots by 23, without the luck Patriots by 11.4. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • N. Folk, 49 yds made · 70% expected
  • N. Folk, 43 yds made · 82% expected
  • C. McLaughlin, 39 yds missed · 86% expected
  • C. McLaughlin, 40 yds made · 84% expected
  • N. Folk, 43 yds made · 82% expected
  • N. Folk, 28 yds made · 98% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Colts 2 for 15 yards, Patriots 4 for 35 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 12:50 Roughing the Passer on the Patriots, 15 yards, wiping out the play +10% IND +3.3 pts
Q2 10:29 Offensive Holding on the Patriots, 10 yards +3% IND +1.4 pts
Q2 8:03 Illegal Use of Hands on the Colts, 10 yards, wiping out the play +5% NE +2.2 pts
Q2 1:57 Neutral Zone Infraction on the Colts (Kwity Paye), 5 yards · pre-snap +1% NE +0.9 pts
Q2 1:01 Encroachment on the Patriots, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% IND +0.5 pts
Q4 10:13 False Start on the Patriots, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% IND 0.0 pts

Colts penalties, every game · Patriots penalties, every game · All teams, 2022

When it happened

Patriots’ chance of winning

As low as 43% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Patriots were ahead in it, below while the Colts were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 14:27 The Patriots were stopped on 3rd & 123rd & 4th downs · 22% expectedK. Bourne dropped a catchable passDrops · 0 drops on 11 catchable balls before this +8% IND NE: Punt
2 Q1 12:50 Roughing the Passer on the Patriots, 15 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls +10% IND IND: Punt
3 Q1 10:17 The Patriots were stopped on 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 25% expected +6% IND NE: Punt
4 Q1 8:20 The Colts were stopped on 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 29% expected +6% NE IND: Punt
5 Q2 13:40 The Patriots were stopped on 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 49% expected +6% IND NE: Field goal
6 Q2 9:00 The Patriots were stopped on 3rd & 23rd & 4th downs · 57% expected +5% IND NE: Field goal
7 Q2 8:03 Illegal Use of Hands on the Colts, 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls +5% NE NE: Touchdown
8 Q2 7:05 Blocked punt by the PatriotsSpecial teams +9% NE NE: Touchdown

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • DeVante Parker (NE WR), out · 0.7 pts
  • Marcus Cannon (NE T), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • David Andrews (NE C), out · 0.4 pts
  • Christian Barmore (NE DT), out · 0.2 pts
  • Matt Ryan (IND QB), out, replaced by s.ehlinger · 3.9 pts
  • Jonathan Taylor (IND RB), out · 0.6 pts
  • Tyquan Lewis (IND DE), out (IR) · 0.2 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Colts 2% · Patriots 98%

Final margin
Patriots by 23
Luck in points
11.6 for the Patriots
Luck-adjusted margin
Patriots by 11.4
Replay with same day's form
Colts 43% · Patriots 57% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 9 2022 games · Colts · Patriots

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