luckadjusted

Week 9 2022 · November 6, 2022

Raiders at Jaguars, Week 9 2022: who deserved to win?

The Jaguars beat the Raiders 27–20, and it was no fluke: replayed with the way both teams actually played, the Jaguars win 9 of 10. The Raiders had the bounces: kicks alone were worth 10 points of win probability to the Raiders.

An off day for the Raiders: their defense played far below its usual level. In a fresh game against the Jaguars they would win 56% of the time; with this day’s form, 10%. The numbers

Before kickoff the Raiders were 57% favorites. The biggest swing (Q1, 10:21 left): the Jaguars were stopped on 3rd & 5, worth 19 points of win probability to the Raiders.

Final

Las Vegas Raiders 20
Jacksonville Jaguars 27

November 6, 2022 · TIAA Bank Stadium · Closing line: Raiders −2.5

Luck index +10 Jaguars about even · −10 Raiders

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Raiders win 1, Jaguars win 9.

  1. 1 LV 30 JAX 23
  2. 2 LV 17 JAX 19
  3. 3 LV 31 JAX 36
  4. 4 LV 20 JAX 27
  5. 5 LV 20 JAX 31
  6. 6 LV 9 JAX 23
  7. 7 LV 6 JAX 23
  8. 8 LV 7 JAX 27
  9. 9 LV 9 JAX 33
  10. 10 LV 9 JAX 40

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

An off day for the Raiders

Their defense played far below its usual level. In a fresh game against the Jaguars they would win 56% of the time; with this day’s form, 10%.

46 points apart for the Raiders: the gap is how differently this game went from what the two teams usually are.

UnitThis gameUsual levelBetter or worse than usual
Raiders offenseEPA per play gained +0.11 +0.11 better by 0.00
Raiders defenseEPA per play allowed +0.26 +0.10 worse by 0.15
Jaguars offenseEPA per play gained +0.26 +0.08 better by 0.17
Jaguars defenseEPA per play allowed +0.11 +0.14 better by 0.03

EPA (expected points added) per play on competitive snaps, turnovers left out because they are valued as luck. Usual level: the team’s earlier games this season plus half of last season, pulled toward the league average. One team’s defense and the other team’s offense are the same snaps, so one game can’t fully say whose day it was; it shows how far this one was from both teams’ norms.

How 4,000 replays ended

Raiders win 10% of them, Jaguars 90%, counting the 2% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Jaguars by 7.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Raiders by 17+0.9%
Raiders by 9–162.3%
Raiders by 1–86.0%
Level after regulation1.9%
Jaguars by 1–817.1%
Jaguars by 9–1622.8%
Jaguars by 17+49.1%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +6.2 points to the Jaguars: the final margin was Jaguars by 7, without the luck Jaguars by 0.8. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • D. Carlson, 38 yds made · 88% expected
  • D. Carlson, 38 yds made · 88% expected
  • R. Patterson, 44 yds made · 78% expected
  • R. Patterson, 41 yds missed · 84% expected
  • R. Patterson, 48 yds made · 72% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Raiders 5 for 45 yards, Jaguars 4 for 30 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 8:41 Offensive Holding on the Raiders (Foster Moreau), 10 yards +4% JAX +1.3 pts
Q1 7:42 Offensive Holding on the Raiders (Mack Hollins), 10 yards, wiping out the play +10% JAX +2.5 pts
Q1 4:45 Defensive Offside on the Jaguars (Tyson Campbell), 5 yards · pre-snap +1% LV +0.6 pts
Q2 12:45 Offensive Holding on the Jaguars, 10 yards +3% LV +0.9 pts
Q3 11:12 Offensive Holding on the Jaguars, 10 yards +5% LV +1.6 pts
Q3 10:15 Defensive Offside on the Raiders, 5 yards · pre-snap +2% JAX +0.5 pts
Q4 14:56 Unnecessary Roughness on the Raiders (Andrew Billings), 15 yards +8% JAX +1.4 pts
Q4 14:56 Offside on Free Kick on the Jaguars (Andre Cisco), 5 yards · pre-snap +1% LV +0.5 pts
Q4 6:30 False Start on the Raiders (Mack Hollins), 5 yards · pre-snap +3% JAX +0.3 pts

Raiders penalties, every game · Jaguars penalties, every game · All teams, 2022

When it happened

Jaguars’ chance of winning

As low as 14% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Jaguars were ahead in it, below while the Raiders were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 10:21 The Jaguars were stopped on 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 41% expectedThe Jaguars fumbled and the Raiders recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +19% LV JAX: Punt
2 Q1 7:42 Offensive Holding on the Raiders (Mack Hollins), 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls · 8 flags in 2147 snaps before, position avg 1 per 412 +10% JAX JAX: Punt
3 Q1 6:24 The Raiders converted 4th & 43rd & 4th downs · 46% expected +13% LV LV: Touchdown
4 Q4 14:17 D. Adams dropped a catchable passDrops · 2 drops on 57 catchable balls before this +9% JAX LV: Punt
5 Q4 13:28 The Raiders converted 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 31% expected +8% LV LV: Punt
6 Q4 3:08 R. Patterson missed 41-yard field goalKicks · 84% expected for him +12% LV JAX: Field goal
7 Q4 2:30 The Raiders were stopped on 4th & 23rd & 4th downs · 61% expectedH. Renfrow dropped a catchable passDrops · 0 drops on 22 catchable balls before this +16% JAX LV: Turnover
8 Q4 0:56 D. Adams dropped a catchable passDrops · 3 drops on 59 catchable balls before this +11% JAX LV: Turnover

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Shaquill Griffin (JAX CB), out (IR) · 0.7 pts
  • Ben Bartch (JAX G), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
  • Nate Hobbs (LV CB), out (IR) · 0.6 pts
  • Darren Waller (LV TE), out · 0.3 pts
  • Jayon Brown (LV LB), out · 0.3 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Raiders 44% · Jaguars 56%

Final margin
Jaguars by 7
Luck in points
6.2 for the Jaguars
Luck-adjusted margin
Jaguars by 0.8
Replay with same day's form
Raiders 10% · Jaguars 90% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 9 2022 games · Raiders · Jaguars

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