luckadjusted

Week 9 2022 · November 6, 2022

Titans at Chiefs, Week 9 2022: who deserved to win?

The Chiefs beat the Titans 20–17, and it was no fluke: replayed with the way both teams actually played, the Chiefs win 10 of 10. The Titans had the bounces: judgment calls alone were worth 38 points of win probability to the Titans.

Before kickoff the Chiefs were 85% favorites. The game turned on a luck play (Q4, 0:22 left): C. Okonkwo dropped a catchable pass, worth 46 points of win probability to the Chiefs.

Final (OT)

Tennessee Titans 17
Kansas City Chiefs 20

November 6, 2022 · GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium · Closing line: Chiefs −14

Luck index +4 Chiefs about even · −4 Titans

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Titans win 0, Chiefs win 10.

  1. 1 TEN 23 KC 26
  2. 2 TEN 23 KC 30
  3. 3 TEN 22 KC 33
  4. 4 TEN 10 KC 24
  5. 5 TEN 21 KC 38
  6. 6 TEN 42 KC 63
  7. 7 TEN 23 KC 47
  8. 8 TEN 19 KC 47
  9. 9 TEN 3 KC 37
  10. 10 TEN 6 KC 48

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Titans win 4% of them, Chiefs 96%, counting the 1% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Chiefs by 3.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Titans by 17+0.3%
Titans by 9–160.9%
Titans by 1–82.3%
Level after regulation0.6%
Chiefs by 1–86.8%
Chiefs by 9–1614.5%
Chiefs by 17+74.6%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +1.3 points to the Titans: the final margin was Chiefs by 3, without the luck Chiefs by 4.3. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • H. Butker, 23 yds made · 100% expected
  • R. Bullock, 44 yds made · 81% expected
  • H. Butker, 47 yds missed · 80% expected
  • H. Butker, 28 yds made · 98% expected
  • Extra point missed · 93% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Titans 8 for 51 yards, Chiefs 10 for 69 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 11:33 Illegal Use of Hands on the Chiefs, 10 yards, wiping out the play +9% TEN +2.0 pts
Q1 11:05 Defensive Offside on the Titans (Rashad Weaver), 5 yards, wiping out the play · pre-snap +14% KC +4.4 pts
Q1 8:02 Offensive Holding on the Chiefs (Noah Gray), 10 yards +4% TEN +1.9 pts
Q1 5:48 False Start on the Titans, 5 yards · pre-snap +3% KC +0.6 pts
Q2 15:00 False Start on the Chiefs, 4 yards · pre-snap +2% TEN +1.2 pts
Q2 10:55 Defensive Offside on the Chiefs (Chris Jones), 4 yards · pre-snap +2% TEN +0.6 pts
Q2 9:26 Offensive Holding on the Chiefs, 10 yards, wiping out the play +11% TEN +3.3 pts
Q2 3:15 Illegal Block Above the Waist on the Titans, 10 yards +3% KC +0.9 pts
Q2 2:04 Offensive Holding on the Chiefs, 1 yard 0% TEN +0.1 pts
Q3 15:00 Offensive Holding on the Titans, 10 yards +2% KC +0.9 pts
Q3 14:13 Ineligible Downfield Pass on the Titans, 5 yards +4% KC +1.1 pts
Q3 9:54 Illegal Contact on the Titans (David Long), 5 yards 0% KC +0.2 pts
Q3 5:17 Offensive Holding on the Titans, 10 yards, wiping out the play +6% KC +1.7 pts
Q4 14:09 Offensive Holding on the Chiefs, 10 yards +2% TEN +0.9 pts
Q4 13:04 Player Out of Bounds on Kick on the Chiefs, 5 yards 0% TEN +0.5 pts
Q4 2:56 Defensive Holding on the Titans, 1 yard 0% KC 0.0 pts
Q4 0:43 Offensive Holding on the Chiefs, 10 yards +16% TEN +0.9 pts
QOT 10:00 Ineligible Downfield Pass on the Chiefs, 5 yards +9% TEN +1.0 pts

Titans penalties, every game · Chiefs penalties, every game · All teams, 2022

When it happened

Chiefs’ chance of winning

As low as 8% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Chiefs were ahead in it, below while the Titans were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 11:05 Defensive Offside on the Titans (Rashad Weaver), 5 yards, wiping out the playPre-snap flags · 0 flags in 316 snaps before, position avg 1 per 422 +14% KC KC: Field goal
2 Q4 3:05 The Chiefs converted 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 32% expected +24% KC KC: Touchdown
3 Q4 2:56 The Chiefs’ two-point try was good3rd & 4th downs · 47% expectedDefensive Holding on the Titans, 1 yardJudgment calls +14% KC KC: Punt
4 Q4 0:43 Offensive Holding on the Chiefs, 10 yardsJudgment calls +16% TEN TEN: Punt
5 Q4 0:22 The game turned hereThe Titans were stopped on 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 27% expectedC. Okonkwo dropped a catchable passDrops · 2 drops on 9 catchable balls before this +46% KC TEN: Punt
6 Q4 0:05 T. Kelce dropped a catchable passDrops · 4 drops on 61 catchable balls before this +34% TEN KC: End of game
7 QOT 7:04 The Chiefs converted 3rd & 13rd & 4th downs · 76% expected +24% KC KC: Field goal
8 QOT 4:07 H. Butker made 28-yard field goalKicks · 98% expected for him +15% TEN –

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Frank Clark (KC DE), out (IR) · 0.7 pts
  • Ryan Tannehill (TEN QB), out, replaced by m.willis · 7.0 pts
  • Taylor Lewan (TEN T), out (IR) · 0.9 pts
  • Amani Hooker (TEN FS), out · 0.4 pts
  • Treylon Burks (TEN WR), out (IR) · 0.2 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Titans 2% · Chiefs 98%

Final margin
Chiefs by 3
Luck in points
1.3 for the Titans
Luck-adjusted margin
Chiefs by 4.3
Replay with same day's form
Titans 4% · Chiefs 96% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 9 2022 games · Titans · Chiefs

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