luckadjusted

Week 9 2022 · November 6, 2022

Panthers at Bengals, Week 9 2022: who deserved to win?

The Bengals beat the Panthers 42–21, and it was no fluke: replayed with the way both teams actually played, the Bengals win 10 of 10.

Before kickoff the Bengals were 70% favorites.

Final

Carolina Panthers 21
Cincinnati Bengals 42

November 6, 2022 · Paycor Stadium · Closing line: Bengals −7

Luck index 0 Bengals about even · 0 Panthers

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Panthers win 0, Bengals win 10.

  1. 1 CAR 19 CIN 24
  2. 2 CAR 15 CIN 26
  3. 3 CAR 14 CIN 31
  4. 4 CAR 17 CIN 37
  5. 5 CAR 17 CIN 40
  6. 6 CAR 10 CIN 36
  7. 7 CAR 0 CIN 30
  8. 8 CAR 9 CIN 43
  9. 9 CAR 3 CIN 41
  10. 10 CAR 10 CIN 55

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Panthers win 0% of them, Bengals 100%. The line is what actually happened: Bengals by 21.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Panthers by 17+0.0%
Panthers by 9–160.0%
Panthers by 1–80.2%
Level after regulation0.0%
Bengals by 1–81.1%
Bengals by 9–164.5%
Bengals by 17+94.2%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +0.1 points to the Bengals: the final margin was Bengals by 21, without the luck Bengals by 20.9. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

Penalties: Panthers 7 for 50 yards, Bengals 5 for 35 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 15:00 Offensive Holding on the Bengals (Clay Johnston), 10 yards +1% CAR +0.7 pts
Q1 7:45 Unnecessary Roughness on the Panthers (Marquise Blair), 15 yards +2% CIN +1.0 pts
Q1 2:43 False Start on the Bengals (Trent Taylor), 5 yards · pre-snap +1% CAR +0.6 pts
Q2 13:19 False Start on the Panthers, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% CIN +0.8 pts
Q2 9:17 Defensive Offside on the Panthers (Marquis Haynes), 5 yards, wiping out the play · pre-snap +2% CIN +1.9 pts
Q2 3:12 Illegal Contact on the Bengals, 5 yards 0% CIN +0.6 pts
Q2 2:10 Ineligible Downfield Kick on the Panthers (Damien Wilson), 5 yards 0% CIN +0.5 pts
Q2 1:40 Illegal Block Above the Waist on the Panthers (C.J. Henderson), 10 yards 0% CIN +0.9 pts
Q2 0:17 Defensive Offside on the Panthers (Brian Burns), 5 yards · pre-snap 0% CIN +0.2 pts
Q3 13:26 False Start on the Panthers, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% CAR +0.6 pts
Q3 10:52 False Start on the Bengals, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% CAR +0.8 pts
Q3 3:51 Illegal Block Above the Waist on the Bengals (Mike Thomas), 10 yards 0% CAR +0.7 pts

Panthers penalties, every game · Bengals penalties, every game · All teams, 2022

When it happened

Bengals’ chance of winning

Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Bengals were ahead in it, below while the Panthers were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 8:26 The Panthers were stopped on 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 38% expected +2% CIN CAR: Punt
2 Q1 7:45 Unnecessary Roughness on the Panthers (Marquise Blair), 15 yardsJudgment calls · 4 flags in 745 snaps before, position avg 1 per 548 +2% CIN CIN: Punt
3 Q1 5:46 The Panthers were stopped on 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 28% expected +2% CIN CAR: Punt
4 Q2 13:19 False Start on the Panthers, 5 yardsPre-snap flags +1% CIN CIN: Touchdown
5 Q2 12:55 The Panthers were stopped on 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 28% expectedS. Brown dropped a catchable passDrops · 1 drops on 2 catchable balls before this +3% CIN CAR: Punt
6 Q2 9:17 Defensive Offside on the Panthers (Marquis Haynes), 5 yards, wiping out the playPre-snap flags · 3 flags in 1296 snaps before, position avg 1 per 277 +2% CIN CIN: Touchdown
7 Q2 6:47 The Panthers threw an interception-worthy pass, and it was pickedInterceptions · 49% expected to stay out of the defense's hands +2% CIN CAR: Punt
8 Q2 3:50 The Bengals converted 3rd & 13rd & 4th downs · 70% expected +3% CIN CIN: Touchdown

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Ja'Marr Chase (CIN WR), out · 1.7 pts
  • Chidobe Awuzie (CIN CB), out (IR) · 0.6 pts
  • Mike Hilton (CIN CB), out · 0.5 pts
  • D.J. Reader (CIN NT), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Jeremy Chinn (CAR FS), out (IR) · 0.8 pts
  • Donte Jackson (CAR CB), out · 0.6 pts
  • Pat Elflein (CAR C), out (IR) · 0.5 pts
  • Juston Burris (CAR SS), out · 0.2 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Panthers 0% · Bengals 100%

Final margin
Bengals by 21
Luck in points
0.1 for the Bengals
Luck-adjusted margin
Bengals by 20.9
Replay with same day's form
Panthers 0% · Bengals 100% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 9 2022 games · Panthers · Bengals

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