luckadjusted

2022 NFL season · November 3, 2022–November 7

Week 9 2022: who deserved to win

5 of 13 winners were outplayed on the day. The biggest heist: the Lions beat the Packers 15–9 in a game they win 34% of the time when it’s replayed with the way both teams played.

The line on each card fills with how often the loser wins the replay: the fuller, the more luck decided it. Outlined: the winner was outplayed.

Week 9 2022 upsets

Games the betting underdog won, biggest upset first, and whether the way both teams played backs it up. 2 of 4 were deserved: the underdog wins 60% or more of the replays with the same day’s form.

WinnerGameBefore kickoffReplay with same day’s formVerdict
Jets 20–17 vs Bills 21% 40% Coin flip
Lions 15–9 vs Packers 38% 34% Lucky
Jaguars 27–20 vs Raiders 43% 90% Deserved
Seahawks 31–21 @ Cardinals 46% 99% Deserved

Week 9 luck ranking

Every team’s luck index this week: 100 × (the result − how often they win the replay). A loss in a game a team wins 9 times in 10 scores −90.

#TeamGameWins the replayLuck index
1 Lions W 15–9 vs Packers 34% +66
2 Vikings W 20–17 @ Commanders 40% +60
3 Jets W 20–17 vs Bills 40% +60
4 Ravens W 27–13 @ Saints 41% +59
5 Chargers W 20–17 @ Falcons 45% +55
6 Patriots W 26–3 vs Colts 57% +43
7 Eagles W 29–17 @ Texans 77% +23
8 Dolphins W 35–32 @ Bears 80% +20
9 Buccaneers W 16–13 vs Rams 82% +18
10 Jaguars W 27–20 vs Raiders 90% +10
11 Chiefs W 20–17 vs Titans 96% +4
12 Seahawks W 31–21 @ Cardinals 99% +1
13 Bengals W 42–21 vs Panthers 100% 0
14 Panthers L 21–42 @ Bengals 0% 0
15 Cardinals L 21–31 vs Seahawks 1% −1
16 Titans L 17–20 @ Chiefs 4% −4
17 Raiders L 20–27 @ Jaguars 10% −10
18 Rams L 13–16 @ Buccaneers 18% −18
19 Bears L 32–35 vs Dolphins 20% −20
20 Texans L 17–29 vs Eagles 23% −23
21 Colts L 3–26 @ Patriots 43% −43
22 Falcons L 17–20 vs Chargers 55% −55
23 Saints L 13–27 vs Ravens 59% −59
24 Bills L 17–20 @ Jets 60% −60
25 Commanders L 17–20 vs Vikings 60% −60
26 Packers L 9–15 @ Lions 66% −66