luckadjusted

2022 NFL season · November 10, 2022–November 14

Week 10 2022: who deserved to win

6 of 14 winners were outplayed on the day. The biggest heist: the Vikings beat the Bills 33–30 in a game they win 16% of the time when it’s replayed with the way both teams played.

The line on each card fills with how often the loser wins the replay: the fuller, the more luck decided it. Outlined: the winner was outplayed.

Week 10 2022 upsets

Games the betting underdog won, biggest upset first, and whether the way both teams played backs it up. 1 of 7 were deserved: the underdog wins 60% or more of the replays with the same day’s form.

WinnerGameBefore kickoffReplay with same day’s formVerdict
Commanders 32–21 @ Eagles 21% 46% Coin flip
Vikings 33–30 @ Bills 32% 16% Lucky
Colts 25–20 @ Raiders 37% 48% Coin flip
Packers 31–28 vs Cowboys 40% 46% Coin flip
Cardinals 27–17 @ Rams 40% 77% Deserved
Lions 31–30 @ Bears 41% 48% Coin flip
Panthers 25–15 vs Falcons 43% 34% Lucky

Week 10 luck ranking

Every team’s luck index this week: 100 × (the result − how often they win the replay). A loss in a game a team wins 9 times in 10 scores −90.

#TeamGameWins the replayLuck index
1 Vikings W 33–30 @ Bills 16% +84
2 Panthers W 25–15 vs Falcons 34% +67
3 Packers W 31–28 vs Cowboys 46% +54
4 Commanders W 32–21 @ Eagles 46% +54
5 Lions W 31–30 @ Bears 48% +52
6 Colts W 25–20 @ Raiders 48% +52
7 Buccaneers W 21–16 vs Seahawks 55% +45
8 Cardinals W 27–17 @ Rams 77% +23
9 Steelers W 20–10 vs Saints 83% +17
10 49ers W 22–16 vs Chargers 84% +16
11 Titans W 17–10 vs Broncos 87% +13
12 Giants W 24–16 vs Texans 90% +10
13 Chiefs W 27–17 vs Jaguars 94% +6
14 Dolphins W 39–17 vs Browns 95% +5
15 Browns L 17–39 @ Dolphins 5% −5
16 Jaguars L 17–27 @ Chiefs 6% −6
17 Texans L 16–24 @ Giants 10% −10
18 Broncos L 10–17 @ Titans 13% −13
19 Chargers L 16–22 @ 49ers 16% −16
20 Saints L 10–20 @ Steelers 17% −17
21 Rams L 17–27 vs Cardinals 23% −23
22 Seahawks L 16–21 @ Buccaneers 45% −45
23 Raiders L 20–25 vs Colts 52% −52
24 Bears L 30–31 vs Lions 52% −52
25 Eagles L 21–32 vs Commanders 54% −54
26 Cowboys L 28–31 @ Packers 54% −54
27 Falcons L 15–25 @ Panthers 67% −67
28 Bills L 30–33 vs Vikings 84% −84