luckadjusted

2022 NFL season · November 17, 2022–November 21

Week 11 2022: who deserved to win

1 of 14 winners were outplayed on the day. The biggest heist: the Lions beat the Giants 31–18 in a game they win 36% of the time when it’s replayed with the way both teams played.

The line on each card fills with how often the loser wins the replay: the fuller, the more luck decided it. Outlined: the winner was outplayed.

Week 11 2022 upsets

Games the betting underdog won, biggest upset first, and whether the way both teams played backs it up. 1 of 3 were deserved: the underdog wins 60% or more of the replays with the same day’s form.

WinnerGameBefore kickoffReplay with same day’s formVerdict
Titans 27–17 @ Packers 41% 85% Deserved
Lions 31–18 @ Giants 41% 36% Lucky
Raiders 22–16 @ Broncos 43% 55% Coin flip

Week 11 luck ranking

Every team’s luck index this week: 100 × (the result − how often they win the replay). A loss in a game a team wins 9 times in 10 scores −90.

#TeamGameWins the replayLuck index
1 Lions W 31–18 @ Giants 36% +64
2 Raiders W 22–16 @ Broncos 55% +45
3 Bills W 31–23 vs Browns 71% +30
4 Saints W 27–20 vs Rams 78% +22
5 Commanders W 23–10 @ Texans 82% +18
6 Eagles W 17–16 @ Colts 83% +17
7 Titans W 27–17 @ Packers 85% +15
8 Patriots W 10–3 vs Jets 85% +15
9 Falcons W 27–24 vs Bears 87% +13
10 Cowboys W 40–3 @ Vikings 88% +12
11 Chiefs W 30–27 @ Chargers 88% +12
12 Ravens W 13–3 vs Panthers 94% +6
13 Bengals W 37–30 @ Steelers 94% +6
14 49ers W 38–10 @ Cardinals 97% +3
15 Cardinals L 10–38 vs 49ers 3% −3
16 Steelers L 30–37 vs Bengals 6% −6
17 Panthers L 3–13 @ Ravens 6% −6
18 Chargers L 27–30 vs Chiefs 12% −12
19 Vikings L 3–40 vs Cowboys 12% −12
20 Bears L 24–27 @ Falcons 13% −13
21 Jets L 3–10 @ Patriots 15% −15
22 Packers L 17–27 vs Titans 15% −15
23 Colts L 16–17 vs Eagles 17% −17
24 Texans L 10–23 vs Commanders 18% −18
25 Rams L 20–27 @ Saints 22% −22
26 Browns L 23–31 @ Bills 30% −30
27 Broncos L 16–22 vs Raiders 45% −45
28 Giants L 18–31 vs Lions 64% −64