luckadjusted

Week 11 2022 · November 20, 2022

Bengals at Steelers, Week 11 2022: who deserved to win?

The Bengals beat the Steelers 37–30, and it was no fluke: replayed with the way both teams actually played, the Bengals win 9 of 10.

Before kickoff the Bengals were 60% favorites. The biggest swing (Q4, 14:20 left): the Steelers converted 3rd & 4, worth 13 points of win probability to the Steelers.

Final

Cincinnati Bengals 37
Pittsburgh Steelers 30

November 20, 2022 · Acrisure Stadium · Closing line: Bengals −3.5

Luck index +6 Bengals about even · −6 Steelers

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Bengals win 9, Steelers win 1.

  1. 1 CIN 47 PIT 10
  2. 2 CIN 41 PIT 10
  3. 3 CIN 41 PIT 16
  4. 4 CIN 38 PIT 18
  5. 5 CIN 31 PIT 16
  6. 6 CIN 31 PIT 19
  7. 7 CIN 29 PIT 20
  8. 8 CIN 31 PIT 26
  9. 9 CIN 36 PIT 33
  10. 10 CIN 17 PIT 23

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Bengals win 94% of them, Steelers 6%, counting the 1% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Bengals by 7.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Bengals by 17+63.2%
Bengals by 9–1620.1%
Bengals by 1–810.8%
Level after regulation0.6%
Steelers by 1–84.0%
Steelers by 9–161.1%
Steelers by 17+0.3%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +2.6 points to the Bengals: the final margin was Bengals by 7, without the luck Bengals by 4.4. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • E. McPherson, 45 yds made · 77% expected
  • M. Wright, 42 yds made · 80% expected
  • M. Wright, 30 yds made · 95% expected
  • M. Wright, 34 yds made · 91% expected
  • E. McPherson, 54 yds made · 60% expected
  • E. McPherson, 44 yds made · 77% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Bengals 6 for 44 yards, Steelers 8 for 70 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 14:20 False Start on the Bengals (Hayden Hurst), 5 yards · pre-snap +1% PIT +0.8 pts
Q1 3:16 Face Mask on the Steelers, 15 yards +5% CIN +1.4 pts
Q2 12:58 Offensive Holding on the Bengals (Devin Asiasi), 8 yards +2% PIT +0.7 pts
Q2 5:47 Defensive Holding on the Bengals (Tre Flowers), 5 yards +5% PIT +1.2 pts
Q2 3:56 Offensive Holding on the Steelers, 10 yards +2% CIN +0.9 pts
Q2 2:25 Defensive Pass Interference on the Bengals, 16 yards +7% PIT +1.7 pts
Q2 1:52 False Start on the Steelers, 5 yards · pre-snap +3% CIN +0.7 pts
Q2 1:47 Delay of Game on the Steelers, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% CIN 0.0 pts
Q2 0:31 False Start on the Steelers (Diontae Johnson), 5 yards · pre-snap +1% CIN +0.2 pts
Q3 10:15 Invalid Fair Catch Signal on the Bengals (Trent Taylor), 5 yards +2% PIT +0.4 pts
Q4 12:31 False Start on the Bengals (Devin Asiasi), 5 yards · pre-snap +3% PIT +0.7 pts
Q4 10:56 Offensive Holding on the Steelers (Pat Freiermuth), 10 yards +6% CIN +1.7 pts
Q4 10:36 Ineligible Downfield Pass on the Steelers, 5 yards, wiping out the play +9% CIN +0.8 pts
Q4 0:45 Disqualification on the Steelers, 15 yards +1% CIN +1.4 pts

Bengals penalties, every game · Steelers penalties, every game · All teams, 2022

When it happened

Steelers’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 72%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Steelers were ahead in it, below while the Bengals were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q2 1:52 The Steelers converted 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 28% expectedFalse Start on the Steelers, 5 yardsPre-snap flags +12% PIT PIT: Touchdown
2 Q2 0:35 The Bengals threw an interception-worthy pass, and it was pickedInterceptions · 46% expected to stay out of the defense's hands +8% PIT CIN: Punt
3 Q3 5:27 The Bengals threw an interception-worthy pass, and it was pickedInterceptions · 46% expected to stay out of the defense's hands +7% PIT CIN: Field goal
4 Q3 0:36 E. McPherson made 54-yard field goalKicks · 60% expected for him, 22 of 28 from 45+ before +12% CIN CIN: Punt
5 Q4 14:20 The Steelers converted 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 44% expected +13% PIT PIT: Punt
6 Q4 13:12 The Steelers were stopped on 3rd & 123rd & 4th downs · 23% expected +8% CIN PIT: Punt
7 Q4 11:45 The Bengals were stopped on 3rd & 133rd & 4th downs · 25% expected +7% PIT CIN: Punt
8 Q4 10:36 Ineligible Downfield Pass on the Steelers, 5 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls +9% CIN CIN: Touchdown

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Ahkello Witherspoon (PIT CB), out · 0.4 pts
  • Chris Boswell (PIT K), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Ja'Marr Chase (CIN WR), out · 1.7 pts
  • Chidobe Awuzie (CIN CB), out (IR) · 0.6 pts
  • Kevin Huber (CIN P), out · 0.2 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Bengals 73% · Steelers 27%

Final margin
Bengals by 7
Luck in points
2.6 for the Bengals
Luck-adjusted margin
Bengals by 4.4
Replay with same day's form
Bengals 94% · Steelers 6% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 11 2022 games · Bengals · Steelers

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