luckadjusted

Week 11 2022 · November 21, 2022

49ers vs Cardinals, Week 11 2022: who deserved to win?

The 49ers beat the Cardinals 38–10, and it was no fluke: replayed with the way both teams actually played, the 49ers win 10 of 10.

Before kickoff the 49ers were 77% favorites. The biggest swing (Q2, 13:40 left): the 49ers converted 3rd & 5, worth 9 points of win probability to the 49ers.

Final

San Francisco 49ers 38
Arizona Cardinals 10

November 21, 2022 · Azteca Stadium · Closing line: 49ers −10

Luck index +3 49ers about even · −3 Cardinals

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. 49ers win 10, Cardinals win 0.

  1. 1 SF 39 ARI 3
  2. 2 SF 38 ARI 9
  3. 3 SF 44 ARI 19
  4. 4 SF 33 ARI 12
  5. 5 SF 29 ARI 10
  6. 6 SF 29 ARI 13
  7. 7 SF 19 ARI 6
  8. 8 SF 19 ARI 9
  9. 9 SF 20 ARI 14
  10. 10 SF 23 ARI 20

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

49ers win 97% of them, Cardinals 3%, counting the 1% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: 49ers by 28.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
49ers by 17+73.0%
49ers by 9–1617.7%
49ers by 1–86.3%
Level after regulation0.7%
Cardinals by 1–81.8%
Cardinals by 9–160.4%
Cardinals by 17+0.1%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +5.3 points to the 49ers: the final margin was 49ers by 28, without the luck 49ers by 22.7. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • M. Prater, 40 yds made · 86% expected
  • R. Gould, 39 yds made · 87% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: 49ers 3 for 30 yards, Cardinals 5 for 50 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 0:39 Face Mask on the Cardinals, 15 yards +6% SF +1.8 pts
Q2 10:46 Taunting on the Cardinals (DeAndre Hopkins), 15 yards +5% SF +1.3 pts
Q3 7:52 Offensive Holding on the 49ers, 10 yards +2% ARI +1.3 pts
Q3 3:41 False Start on the 49ers, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% ARI +0.9 pts
Q3 0:28 Illegal Formation on the Cardinals, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% SF +0.5 pts
Q3 0:02 False Start on the Cardinals, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% SF +0.9 pts
Q4 15:00 Roughing the Passer on the 49ers (Nick Bosa), 15 yards 0% ARI +2.3 pts
Q4 5:48 Illegal Block Above the Waist on the Cardinals (Corey Clement), 10 yards 0% SF +0.8 pts

49ers penalties, every game · Cardinals penalties, every game · All teams, 2022

When it happened

Cardinals’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 65%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Cardinals were ahead in it, below while the 49ers were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 11:25 The Cardinals converted 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 39% expected +6% ARI ARI: Field goal
2 Q1 2:53 The Cardinals were stopped on 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 50% expected +5% SF ARI: Punt
3 Q1 0:39 Face Mask on the Cardinals, 15 yardsJudgment calls +6% SF SF: Touchdown
4 Q2 13:40 The 49ers converted 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 36% expected +9% SF SF: Touchdown
5 Q2 12:32 The Cardinals converted 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 44% expected +5% ARI ARI: Turnover
6 Q2 9:42 The Cardinals were intercepted on a well-placed throwInterceptions · 0% expected to stay out of the defense's hands +9% SF ARI: Touchdown
7 Q2 8:51 The 49ers converted 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 55% expected +8% SF SF: Touchdown
8 Q2 6:50 The Cardinals converted 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 36% expected +9% ARI ARI: Touchdown

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Kyler Murray (ARI QB), out, replaced by c.mccoy · 2.0 pts
  • Byron Murphy (ARI CB), out · 1.1 pts
  • Zach Ertz (ARI TE), out · 1.1 pts
  • Marquise Brown (ARI WR), out (IR) · 1.0 pts
  • D.J. Humphries (ARI T), out · 0.7 pts
  • Rodney Hudson (ARI C), out (IR) · 0.6 pts
  • Will Hernandez (ARI G), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Justin Pugh (ARI G), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
  • Emmanuel Moseley (SF CB), out (IR) · 0.6 pts
  • Samson Ebukam (SF DE), out · 0.5 pts
  • Arik Armstead (SF DE), out · 0.4 pts
  • Javon Kinlaw (SF DT), out (IR) · 0.2 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

49ers 100% · Cardinals 0%

Final margin
49ers by 28
Luck in points
5.3 for the 49ers
Luck-adjusted margin
49ers by 22.7
Replay with same day's form
49ers 97% · Cardinals 3% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 11 2022 games · 49ers · Cardinals

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